In anticipation of World Water Week next week, news on aqueous gloom and doom abounds. This is, um, not comforting:
Cholera may return to London, the mass migration of Africans could cause civil unrest in Europe and China's economy could crash by 2015 as the supply of fresh water becomes critical to the global economy.
That's nearly as frightening as Snakes on a Plane (all the hype surrounding it, not the movie itself).
But seriously. By 2015? That's damn soon.
Analysts from 200 of the world's largest companies, brought together by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, made the grim forecast, also predicting (hoping?) that water scarcity will spur better management and water-saving technologies. As a third of the world's population already lives where water is overused or inaccessible, future conflicts over water are virtually inevitable.
The analysts, who took three years to study future water availability, came up with three potential future scenarios:
1. Misery and shortages in the megacities and drought in Africa
By 2010, 22 megacities with populations larger than 10 million face major water and sewerage problems. The situation is gravest in China, where 550 of the country's 600 largest cities are running short. Growing demand for water by industry leads to serious over-exploitation with less and less water available for consumers and farmers. This leads to a fall in Chinese food production, which in turn leads to more imports and impacts on other countries. Friction and unrest grow worldwide as the middle classes struggle to pay bills. Businesses are exposed to charges of moral culpability and litigation over water use. Waves of immigrants flood in to Europe from increasingly drought-torn Africa.
2. China leads recycling rush as world moves to a new hydro economy
By 2010, the water shortage in many developing countries is recognised as one of the most serious political and social issues of the time. Lack of water is stopping development and in many countries the rural poor suffer as their water and other needs take second place to those of swelling cities and industry. Local government worldwide is increasingly distrusted over water allocation, and historical divides between rich and poor are exacerbated by water shortages. However, by 2025 a worldwide hydro economy is developing, led by China. Vast new investments are made in recycling water and the cost of desalination is greatly reduced. Innovative small-scale water treatment processes become the norm.
3. Water is the means of social control as floods and disease devastate world
Water becomes a key symbol of protest around the world and is seen as the most serious social and political issue of the generation. By 2015, multinational companies are accused regularly of taking too much water in developing countries, cholera breaks out in London, and governments start to use water as a form of social control, subsidising some sectors and rationing it to others. Great floods follow each other in quick succession. Deforestation leads to massive mudslides in Asia and increasing flooding affects Europe, damaging industry. A second New Orleans flood destroys the city again. Global focus grows on the "export" of water via crops such as wheat or fruit.
Um ... I pick number two.
Comments
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disdaniel Posted 8:05 am
17 Aug 2006
don't lose hope
Eeek that is pretty grim. I'm not sure any of those options are good...
Well, it just so happens I've been working on a small scale water treatment technology. It is still a work in progress...for a sneak peak check out my blog:
http://time-is-energy.blogspot.com/
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sunflower Posted 8:20 am
17 Aug 2006
Seattle is so dry, we need rain.
Soft water is worth more than hard oil in Saudi Arabia. Oil super tankers return to the Middle East are filled with saltwater for stability. Why not trade fresh water for oil?
Global warming will rise the sea level from melting ice. That is a lot of fresh water. Perhaps we could make huge polymer bags and let the ice water drift to where it is most needed.
We could also use the heat of global warming for desalination. It is the number-one market for solar energy.
I also read that there is a funded program to lay four long pipes from Turkey though Lebanon (or under the sea) to Israel for oil, gas, and water. Israel would consume the water (and gas) and export the oil.
Don't carpool alone.
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bookerly Posted 12:51 pm
17 Aug 2006
Picking Number Two
Hi Sarah,
You are probably right to pick number two. The Chinese government recognizes the problem and is doing something about it (are they doing enough or the right things? Time will tell.).
Scenario's one and three pretty much suggest that there either is no solution or one cannot be applied.
Something will be done (in China and elsewhere), and changes will be made.
How it all works out is, of course, to be seen.
Right now, in addition to dams (which for all their problems are useful in dealing with some water shortages (relatively short term), the government is building a series of canals to move water North (dry) from the South (still flooding).
Think of the California Acqueduct system in reverse direction.
And cities are working on a number of solutions. Quick enough? I don't know, but they can see the problem and are trying.
The government is also promoting drip agriculture and use of greenhouses to help with the problem (they had a special on tv about a pilot program for this, it has been successful, now they are planning to roll it out).
Cross your fingers and hope for rain!!
(Every place else I went this summer, it rained, but not here, I don't know why!)
patrick
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Pandu Posted 3:18 am
18 Aug 2006
reducing need
Eating lower on the food chain (vegetarian) can drastically reduce water consumption. About 5 years ago I did some calculations (sorry I didn't keep the figures) of my dietary water consumption, comparing my usage from when I ate a lot of meat to the amount after I switched to a vegetarian diet. I pulled water usage estimates from three sources, and used the average. The result was my saving 400,000 gallons of water per year by giving up meat. When I added my wife and children into the equation, our collective savings was over 1 million gallons each year.
Naturally a proportional savings could be made by simply reducing meat consumption.
I don't know what was the basis for the (vastly) different water consumption numbers, requiring that I average the numbers; but I figure that it could have a lot to do with the specific agricultural practices. For instance, grass-fed cows require much less water than grain-fed. So that's another way that water consumption can be reduced.
Giving up meat would also be very helpful for alleviating the problem of water rights issues in the Midwest USA.
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caniscandida Posted 4:42 am
18 Aug 2006
vegetarianism; Gore on the Himalayas
Dear Pandu,
thank you for writing this. I admire you for bringing into the discussion "eating lower on the food chain." You have written before on the subject in Gristmill. It is always a good thing, to present vegetarianism as a serious, praiseworthy, beneficial moral choice, and to reject its image as an elitist, eccentric fashion.
On water in Asia: Al Gore wrote, in "An Inconvenient Truth" (p. 58):
<<
The Himalayan Glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau have been among the most affected by global warming. The Himalayas contain 100 times as much ice as the Alps and provide more than half of the drinking water for 40% of the world's population -- through seven Asian river systems that all originate on the same plateau.
Within the next half-century, that 40% of the world's people may well face a very serious drinking water shortage, unless the world acts boldly and quickly to mitigate global warming.
>>
And there is a somewhat simplistic, but basically accurate, map, showing most of the river systems of South and East Asia that originate in the Himalayas, from the Indus in the west to the Yangtze and Yellow in the east; in between, the Ganges, and the many big rivers of Indochina.
(I did not quite remember where that was discussed in the book, and it took me a while to find it. And this is not the first time I have had that difficulty. For what it is worth, I wish the book had an index.)
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Geoff Dabelko Posted 9:30 am
18 Aug 2006
Don't have to wait until 2015
Thanks for flagging World Water Week Sarah - it is an important gathering. I haven't read the WBCSD report yet but the account here suggests that some key points are underplayed:
The majority of water in almost all countries is used by agriculture for mostly inefficient irrigation. As much of 85 percent of water but routinely 65%-75% goes to ag. So scarcities are relative and not absolute in most cases for household, industrial, and commercial usages, something that should actually be encouraging because we can do something about it. The focus on quantity often obscures the quality issues which of course take more water out of circulation, feeding back into the quantity issue. But again, we can address it.
Second, sudden changes in availability of water are what are the toughest. Water scarce places that have been water scarce have found lots of ways to adapt. Real challenges come with sudden changes, making the prospects for climate driven changes in precipitation patterns and amounts that much scarier. It is also why dams are such flashpoints - quick change in access and availability patterns.
Finally, we don't have to wait until 2015 to experience a number of the points described. Northern China is already extremely water scarce and it is affecting industrial growth rates in measurable ways as well as producing tremendous hardship for the people. Multinational corporations are already being accused of using too much water in water scarce areas - Coke continues to have troubles in India for how much water they use and for the allegedly contaminated water in the product (the Indian NGO Center for Science and Environment has issued reports saying they found pesticides in the Coke sold there). See the recent spate of devastating mudslides in the Philippines for links between massive deforestation and mudslides. And the "export" of water through crops, what Tony Allen coined the term "virtual water" to describe, is happening every day in the US Midwest as the American breadbasket is watered at unsustainable rates by the falling Ogallala aquifer (See Glennon's book Water Follies on unsustainable US groundwater use).
Geoff Dabelko
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