Vinod Khosla may be a "venture-capital star" who is now putting a lot of money into biofuels -- but he is no clean-tech expert, as he proved during a keynote address at ThinkEquity Partners' ThinkGreen conference in San Francisco. In remarks that should worry anybody relying on his judgment, Khosla said:
Forget plug-ins. They are nice toys. But they will not be material to climate change.
Very, very wrong. Plug-ins are likely to be a central strategy for dealing with climate change. I hope cellulosic ethanol will be, but that still remains to be seen.
Contrary to what Khosla says, affordable cellulosic ethanol probably requires a major breakthrough -- and to play a major role in climate change, it needs a major new infrastructure investment. I recently test-drove a prototype plug-in that avoids the need for a battery breakthrough (more on that after the Detroit auto show). And plug-ins don't need a major new infrastructure investment. They are not toys.
Khosla should stick with what he knows.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Comments
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GreyFlcn Posted 9:21 am
27 Dec 2007
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/12/argonne-assesse.h ...
http://greyfalcon.net/khosla
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sunflower Posted 9:26 am
27 Dec 2007
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Biodiversivist Posted 11:17 am
27 Dec 2007
He is just trying to pump up his own investments by spreading negative hype about his competition. He's just another rich guy, not all that bright, not all that creative. He will cut and run if the crap hits the fan. Those counting on his advice will deserve what they get. Such is life in the world of venture capital.
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
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amazingdrx Posted 1:16 pm
27 Dec 2007
That is the more important mistake he made. Pure electric plugins are too expensive and impractical for most people. The ones making news are "toys". High end sports cars.
Plugin hybrids are a different animal. They require a fraction of the still very expensive nanotech lithium ion batteries. Like the A 123 battery in the Prius Hymotion plugin conversion. It's price is rumored to be 12k for the conversion kit.
The new Audi plugin hybrid is a much better design, as is tthe Volt. Though the Volt is over powered.
I don't think Khosla understands the difference or how having the average daily trip length covered by battery power with backup internal combustion engine vastly increases average mpg. While at the same time allowing regular fueling at gas stations for longer trips.
With a pure plugin electric car, like george Clooney and Gov Schwartzeneggar have ordered (for 93k, the test drive costs 5k), when you run out of juice, you call a tow truck.
With a plugin hybrid you stop at a gas station before you ever get stranded. Wealthy stars can afford the delay, most drivers can't.
They need a plugin hybrid with a fifth of the expensive nano tech batteries. And a fraction of the price of a pure electric.
It appears the writer whose article you linked to was confused about tyhis too Joseph. just had to make it cleaer than khosla and the writer did.
plugin hybrids, the way to reduce gas guzzling by 80%. Pure electric plugins, still "toys" for the wealthy until nanotech batteries can be recharged in 10 minutes.
Even bio-d's excellent plugin bike is technically a plugin hybrid. Battery power and pedal power.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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apsmith Posted 2:18 pm
27 Dec 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/8/2049/64576
His optimism on cellulosic ethanol may be understandable, but his support for large subsidies for conventional ethanol production now just makes little sense to me. And there are a lot of other odd arguments in there as well. Not credible, I decided when I read that the first time.
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Vinod Khosla Posted 4:07 pm
27 Dec 2007
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amazingdrx Posted 4:48 pm
27 Dec 2007
15,000 more V? Does the Audi plugin hybrid cost that much more than a regular hybrid or a comparable economy car?
With mass production would plugin hybrids cost anymore than a conventional economy car? It's a fact, until mass production efficiencies kick in products are more expensive. Plugin hybrids take a fifth of the batteries of a pure electric car, and those batteries need not be the very expensive quick charge type.
Plugin hybrids do not need quick charge. They have backup liquid fuel. A few hours charge time is no problem.
The complaint that electric cars pollute just as much if the electricity is from GHG intensive sources like coal is deceptive. The goal of renewable energy revolution is to go renewable with the grid as well. Your dream of cellulosic ethanol would not happen overnight, neither will a distributed renewable smart grid to charge plugin hybrids.
Thanks for your reply though. I personally think you would be better off targeting investment dollars to a distributed renewable generation and storage internet enabled smart grid. Plugin hybrid vehicles and high speed light rail. And conservation in the form of geo heat exchange heating and cooling.
Climb on board and come on in for the big win with us (to paraphrase "Full Metal Jacket").
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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GreyFlcn Posted 4:48 pm
27 Dec 2007
Then where pray tell, is all this imaginary biomass going to come from for Cellulosic Ethanol?
http://greyfalcon.net/biolimits.png
http://greyfalcon.net/perlack
http://greyfalcon.net/algae4
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/03/logistics-problem ...
http://greyfalcon.net/oilvsethanol.png
What if, Cellulosic Ethanol doesn't result in Michael Wang's imaginary emissions reductions. What if the secondary emissions, and emissions he's leaving out, completely eliminate any sort of benefit one was hoping to gain?
http://greyfalcon.net/landuse
http://greyfalcon.net/n2o.png
http://greyfalcon.net/palmoil
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/ocean_bacteria_ni ...
Whats if the known impact of N2O suddenly tripled?
http://greyfalcon.net/n2ostudy
_
Also that $15000 figure seems a bit suspect to me.
Even full performance electric cars don't have that kind of markup.
http://greyfalcon.net/electriccars.png
Seems like you're comparing it to a parallel plugin hybrid, and not a series plugin hybrid.
A parallel plugin hybrid is merely a conventional hybrid with an extra battery pack bolt on it.
A series plugin hybrid is an electric car, with a small motorcycle generator on it.
The difference being is that the second type is about 10 times less parts total,
and involves less than a dozen moving parts to make it go.
That makes it lighter, cheaper, and almost zero maintanence.
Then add in the cost of fuel is roughly $0.70 a gallon.
_
That said, I wouldn't speak to loudly by saying
"It's not practical because it CURRENTLY costs more than a hybrid"
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/12/02/gm-responds-to-us ...
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amazingdrx Posted 5:06 pm
27 Dec 2007
17 million new cars are sold each year in the US. 300 million need replacement over 20 years, no problem then.
The best part of the new Audi plugin hybrid design is this. They simply added a rear axle plugin battery electric drive to a regular front wheel drive car. That not only allows easy conversion of used cars, but it means automakers don't need to change their capital intensive production facilities.
They keep turning out the standard front wheel drive cars and simply add the rear wheel electric drive. making them all wheel drive as well. Another atractive feature for extra traction in difficult weather conditions, with ever more extreme weather this is a feature car buyers already pay more for.
Witness the great success of Subaru. It's the silent sports/nature lovers status vehicle of choice right now. Eco friendly folk don't want SUVs anymore.
It's not personal, it's just business, hehey. Well maybe it is personal for green car buyers, we want to keep up with the latest eco status symbol.
Gas guzzling flex fuel vehicles just don't make the grade. Wether they guzzle oil or corn or cellulose.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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GreyFlcn Posted 5:33 pm
27 Dec 2007
http://greyfalcon.net/lca.png
http://greyfalcon.net/electriccars2.png
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2004/10/cummins_westpor.h ...
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/11/rapid-increase-.h ...
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/02/cng_use_acceler.h ...
Makes me kind of curious though why a nation already primarily using CNG and Diesels as their primary mode of transportation should do Hybrids.
_
Especially when you consider that India's fuel economy rating is already far higher than the United States.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/10/india-developin.h ...
http://greyfalcon.net/oilvsethanol2.png
http://greyfalcon.net/oregon
_
Sorry but the analogy just doesn't work for India.
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GreyFlcn Posted 6:23 pm
27 Dec 2007
There's no-where near enough domestic green biomass to fuel cellulosic ethanol.
Practically any economic advancements in cellulosic ethanol could be directly applied toward coal-to-liquids. (i.e. Fischer Tropsch, etc)
So that could only mean a massive increase in conversion of Black biomass, (Coal-to-Liquids).
And since the United States can't regulate the world. So it's a Pandora's box if ecologically distasterous technologies suddenly become far more economically viable.
_
How do you factor that into the emissions created by cellulosic ethanol?
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scatter Posted 7:51 pm
27 Dec 2007
This always seems to be forgotten and is an obvious way of reducing the up front costs of EVs and series hybrids.
I would contend that with battery leasing (plus expected improvements in battery technology, vastly improved vehicle design and even potential revenue from V2G applications in the future... maybe... hopefully) the statement "pure electric plugins are too expensive and impractical for most people" is not true.
Sure they're expensive now but as far as I am aware there are zero OEM PHEVs available on the market at the moment (although this will all be changing in 2008 at long last).
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odograph Posted 11:28 pm
27 Dec 2007
The are both promises, to men like me on the street, that the inventions will be made and that the tech will be delivered at a reasonable price point.
I think I prefer to be agnostic, and let these guys do their inventions, and then compete with actual product details.
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odograph Posted 11:35 pm
27 Dec 2007
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sunflower Posted 1:21 am
28 Dec 2007
Not my model. Self reliance and family survival will dominate a chaotic future. Jobs, energy, and transportation will source close to home. That implies highly distributed solar cogeneration for home heat and and light electric transportation.
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sunflower Posted 1:29 am
28 Dec 2007
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odograph Posted 1:30 am
28 Dec 2007
The future is here, it just isn't evenly distributed.
etc., etc.
There is no static now, nor a railroad track to a defined future. We evolve, but we need to trick our human sense of time to see it. The "year in review" lists spanning the web are lessons in how not to do it. They often contain items that are not items for 2007 at all, just hints and promises for the future. You see "2007 was the year we learned ..." Yeah, maybe. Or maybe we learned something else, something we don't understand right now.
But again, one thing we can do is make our best steps for today, and adopt new/better tech as it proves itself.
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Delay And Deny Posted 2:26 am
28 Dec 2007
I was reading this book about Hawaii. Actually it's a true crime story, but it has interspersed chapters about Hawaiian history.
It said before Captain Cook arrived and took over the joint, the Hawaiians were pretty much hedonists.
Because of the plenitude of the island, they had so much food they only needed to work 1/3rd of the year. They also created coral seawalls and practiced aquaculture -- they let in the small younger fish, and when the fish matured, they were trapped (and killed and eaten), giving the Hawaiians even more food!
Of course, shelter only had to be minimal because of the warm weather.
So, when people talk about "solutions" to the energy problem, we have to realize that the problem is that most of us live in crapholes where the weather means we have expend lots of energy in the first place just to survive.
The alternative is to try and make the situation like Hawaii in the first place where there is more energy (food) than needed from nature.
My Log
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amazingdrx Posted 2:38 am
28 Dec 2007
I had the privelege of chatting online with another founder of Sun, Bill Joy, online in conjunction with the now defunct "NEW show" on the also defunct CnnFn network. Way back in the internet boom years, 1999.
These are the people that need to get the message if this energy revolution is going to go in a better direction than fuel farming, (newer, safer)nukes, and clean coal.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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odograph Posted 3:29 am
28 Dec 2007
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enki Posted 3:40 am
28 Dec 2007
The reformer changes the hydrocarbon and water into a CO/H2 syngas which is what the vehicle runs on. Since up to half the H2 (which is the primary energy source in the syngas) in that gas mix comes from water you cut emissions drastically and cut the amount of hydrocarbon fuel required.
Mike Johnston
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GreyFlcn Posted 3:50 am
28 Dec 2007
Chemistries change when you factor in nanotech.
"New Nanowire Battery Holds 10 Times The Charge Of Existing Ones"
Could we get people in India and China, the fastest growing car markets, to ante up this much additional money when the biggest thrust in volume cars in India is to reduce the cost of the whole car to $2500
You're talking about a car that gets 58.8mpg, with European emissions standards.
But the way it achieves this is by drastically lowering horsepower, size, and weight.
_
And if one were so inclined,
For a couple extra bucks they could even play around with the aerodynamic drag if they wanted to.
Aptera is certainly having a go at it.
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Biodiversivist Posted 4:31 am
28 Dec 2007
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
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GreyFlcn Posted 4:49 am
28 Dec 2007
Why can't we change battery chemistries?
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/12/researchers-dev.h ...
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danielbell Posted 6:33 am
28 Dec 2007
Powering the average American's daily commute completely with electricity without a change in infrastructure? Doesn't sound like a toy to me.
Thanks for the post Joe, I just picked up your book and I'm looking forward to reading it.
Discuss sustainable cars - wiserearth.org/groups/hypercar
ohgreen.com/blog
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danielbell Posted 6:33 am
28 Dec 2007
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GreenEngineer Posted 6:59 am
28 Dec 2007
Having said that, let's accept his assertion for the sake of argument.
It seems likely that even if biofuels can ultimately fulfill the promises made by their proponents (a big IF), they will still be priced at or near the cost of gas/diesel, i.e. $3-5/gallon for the near future. Electricity, on the other hand, is a much cheaper fuel in terms of $/mile. So if I'm a 30-50 mile/day commuter, I would prefer a PHEV that allows me to do most of my driving on grid current. The savings on fuel costs would be substantial -- easily enough to offset a premium on the cost of the vehicle.
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odograph Posted 7:45 am
28 Dec 2007
For most of the market that is, and has always been, silly. Most people choose a car, hybrid or not, that suits them, and most already pay more than what a hybrid would cost.
If someone is talking to you about a hybrid premium then they are either a buyer of low-end cars (those costing less than $22K) or they are deluded.
Ask them what their last car cost.
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odograph Posted 7:50 am
28 Dec 2007
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GreenEngineer Posted 8:12 am
28 Dec 2007
This is very true. I suspect that the psychology here is that we are willing to pay more for a better service, but we resent paying more for what we perceive as equivalent service. While the mileage of a hybrid is somewhat better than the equivalent conventional car, the incremental difference probably only justifies itself as "better service" to those who place a premium on fuel efficiency above and beyond the cost of gas (i.e. greens).
In this context, a PHEV may not have to compete on price (at least for the American consumer) if it's marketed correctly. Being able to fill up at home on wall current, and avoid gas stations nearly entirely, is a type of service that nothing currently on the market provides. Spun correctly, this should appeal to a whole range of non-green consumers, like the gotta-have-the-new-cool-toy early adopter crowd, and the raghead-hating, oil-independence conservative hawk, just to pick two.
It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, and if the folks who sell the first production PHEVs don't capitalize on this, then the manufacturer needs to fire their marketing team.
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sunflower Posted 8:17 am
28 Dec 2007
//
var l=new Array();
var output = '';
l[0]='>';l[1]='a';l[2]='/';l[3]='';l[26]='\"';l[27]=' 109';l[28]=' 111';l[29]=' 99';l[30]=' 46';l[31]=' 101';l[32]=' 108';l[33]=' 103';l[34]=' 111';l[35]=' 111';l[36]=' 103';l[37]=' 64';l[38]=' 115';l[39]=' 101';l[40]=' 108';l[41]=' 98';l[42]=' 97';l[43]=' 119';l[44]=' 101';l[45]=' 110';l[46]=' 101';l[47]=' 114';l[48]=':';l[49]='o';l[50]='t';l[51]='l';l[52]='i';l[53]='a';l[54]='m';l[55]='\"';l[56]='=';l[57]='f';l[58]='e';l[59]='r';l[60]='h';l[61]='a ';l[62]='
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Nucbuddy Posted 8:18 am
28 Dec 2007
L.A Times, December 26, 2007
It's hard to tell exactly what the "hybrid premium" is on the Tahoe Hybrid (MSRP of $50,490) but it looks to be, at a minimum, $8,000. That's a huge lump.
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odograph Posted 9:16 am
28 Dec 2007
FWIW, the Greenhybrid database shows that a Highlander Hybrid gets 26 MPG real-world, and the Escape Hybrid gets 29-32 MPG.
You can buy those, or a Prius, or you can "add" hybrid to a Tahoe and get 21? Should I even believe 21 at this point?
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Nucbuddy Posted 9:23 am
28 Dec 2007
Why are you telling other people what they value? What does what you value have to do with what others value?
Furthermore, over about 10 or 20 mpg, why would anyone value fuel-economy? Your personal hobbies (energy efficiency, etc.) do not seem to have much to do with what people generally value in this world.
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odograph Posted 9:32 am
28 Dec 2007
The argument that there is this general "hybrid premium" is not based on the cost to buy a hybrid.
It is based on an artificial construction, the idea that one must choose from some arbitrary pair of pundit-chosen "equivalent" cars.
... and not from "the constellation of cars available (from the $10K Aveo to the $1.7M Bugatti)"
Who's choosing for people? Me when I say buy any car, including any hybrid, or you when you say it is all "Tahoe or Tahoe-hybrid?"
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odograph Posted 9:36 am
28 Dec 2007
You can choose to spend $8K more for hybrid on your Tahoe, or you can choose to spend $20K less on a Prius.
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Nucbuddy Posted 9:51 am
28 Dec 2007
The pundit-chosen "equivalent" cars are equivalent in terms of what people generally value. Why are you telling others that what they should value should be based upon your personal hobbies?
Let's let the numbers speak for themselves:
http://12.155.133.84/autos/reviews/review.aspx?ID=814
The Chevrolet Tahoe competes in the Large Utility segment, which consists of eight models. Buyers in this segment look for comfort, performance, and exterior styling, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2006 Avoider Study and the Escaped Shopper Study.
The top sellers in the segment during calendar year 2006, according to the J.D. Power and Associates Sales Report, were the Chevrolet Tahoe (161,491 units sold), Ford Expedition (78,953), and Chevrolet Suburban (77,211). The Chevrolet Tahoe's 161,491 sales in 2006 represent an increase of 6.0 percent compared to the previous year. Other models offered in the Large Utility segment include the GMC Yukon and Yukon XL, Toyota Sequoia, and Nissan Armada. Joining the segment in 2007 is the Ford Expedition EL.
There it is in black and white, Odograph: "comfort, performance, and exterior styling". Fuel-economy is notably absent. Why are you telling others that what they value should be based upon what you personally value? Over about 10 or 20 mpg, why would anyone, except for an odd bigot here or there, care about fuel-economy?
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odograph Posted 10:35 am
28 Dec 2007
... is a perfect sucker.
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odograph Posted 10:40 am
28 Dec 2007
Most people juggle a basket of want and needs, as well as costs and disadvantages, as they shop for a new car.
You have to be a hypothetical being, or an imbecile, to limit yourself to two "equivalents."
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racc Posted 10:54 am
28 Dec 2007
It is much better to spend our limited resources on cycling, public transit and rail than waste in on the fantasy of a sustainable automobile.
Regarding the misconception that prices will go down once mass production is achieved. This was true before the age of peak resources that we find ourselves in now. As soon as as enough of these are produced to even come close to making a difference, the cost of the materials used to make the batteries will likely rise and negate the advantages of mass production.
It is time to come to grips that we are on a planet with limited resources. Using them on automobiles is simply irresponsible.
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Pangolin Posted 1:54 pm
28 Dec 2007
The bottom line is that personal automobiles are simply not sustainable in a world of 9 billion people.
It is much better to spend our limited resources on cycling, public transit and rail than waste in on the fantasy of a sustainable automobile.
Regarding the misconception that prices will go down once mass production is achieved. This was true before the age of peak resources that we find ourselves in now. As soon as as enough of these are produced to even come close to making a difference, the cost of the materials used to make the batteries will likely rise and negate the advantages of mass production.
It is time to come to grips that we are on a planet with limited resources. Using them on automobiles is simply irresponsible.
I don't know about where you live but the very prosperous Northern California city I live in can no longer afford to keep up on road maintenance. As the cost of oil continues to rise the cost of asphalt or coal tar will rise also as well as the cost of concrete and the operating costs of the fleet of trucks required to repair roadways.
There was more than one bridge collapse last year due to deferred long-term maintenance. So while we argue about what kind of fancy new cars, ethanol, plug-in hybrid or electric, the roads that we are supposed to drive them on fall apart . While our governments could always print or borrow money to repair said roads the squeeze on already limited resource bases will be felt globally.
Thinking the the Cartopia is going to continue powered by ethanol is just foolishness. The reason we have climate change is we already use more energy than the biosphere can provide for or sequester the CO2 from. It's simply NOT logical. We might continue driving plug-in hybrids for somewhat longer but the waste in resources that we will need to get to a greenhouse-stable atmosphere is just staggering.
We have a VERY SHORT TIME to stabilize the atmosphere and that stability may not include any private citizen driving a Tahoe, Yukon or Armada (who named that thing?) around even if it's all electric. They will have to go sooner or later because we need the climate stable so we can have a reliable food supply. Sorry Australia, the free market cannot make it rain on cue when your crops need water.
The optimal personal vehicle is a bicycle.
Put the Carbon Back
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dotcommodity Posted 9:11 am
29 Dec 2007
1. Subaru: RiE
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/12/26/subaru-ev-could-a ...
2. Mitsubishi: iMiEV
prizewinning, Japanese government-supported r&d like built the Prius
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/11/14/mitsubishis-all-e ...
3. Smith Electric Vehicles
huge delivery vans, (over $30,000: but same price as equivalent in gas) has grown seven-fold this year: making EVs in Europe since the 20's, coming here:
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/12/05/smith-ev-announce ...
4. GM: Chevy Volt (not pure electric because it has a range extender: a tiny ICE just to recharge its battery) 40 mile range all electric between charges, +400 mile range with recharger
http://www.gm-volt.com/
and Tesla plans to make the cheaper electric WhiteStar sedans once they jumpstart the assemblyline using the luxury Roadster, which is a respectable way to start a business.
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dotcommodity Posted 9:25 am
29 Dec 2007
1. Spyder
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=913
2. Miles
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/12/19/new-york-mayor-bl ...
4. Phoenix
http://www.engadget.com/2006/12/01/phoenix-motorcars-intr ...
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christophersj Posted 3:36 pm
29 Dec 2007
Fuel efficiency isn't a hobby, it is an essential element to society's survival. That's like saying the effort to cure smallpox was a "hobby"?
Are you high?
-Christopher
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amazingdrx Posted 4:02 pm
29 Dec 2007
But not on your false drugs, he's high on a clean windshield and a full tank of plutonium in his nuclear powered hovercraft (to paraphrase "Firesign tHeater").
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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trock Posted 11:51 pm
29 Dec 2007
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GreyFlcn Posted 2:31 am
30 Dec 2007
They are usually far more interested in the style and the sticker price.
And often will buy cars with more horsepower and size than they would use on any regular basis.
Often for things which they will only do maybe 2-5x a year. (I want to tow a boat, I want to pull out tree stumps)
Kind of like how you have Mom's buying V6 SUVs instead of V4 minivans.
_
That said Europe has much more priority on fuel economy, but thats because it costs more to buy fuel.
I can't find a good source for this (shock)
But I swear I've heard that the unsubsidized cost of petroleum should be somewhere around $19 per gallon.
If people were really paying that much for fuel, I'm sure that it would be a large priority.
But thats what subsidies do.
They devalue the cost of doing something.
And as such, people don't really value fuel economy much.
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odograph Posted 4:53 am
30 Dec 2007
There might also be some marginal factor with global warming education.
If you want to know "how much" mileage matters you'll have to ask now, again in 2008, and again in 2009.
Times change.
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odograph Posted 7:15 am
30 Dec 2007
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odograph Posted 7:17 am
30 Dec 2007
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ipsofacto Posted 9:52 am
30 Dec 2007
Appel offers no apologies for needing government largesse to make money. "All oil, even fossil-fuel oil, gets government subsidies in the form of tax breaks and other incentives," he says, citing a 1998 study by the International Center for Technology Assessment showing that unsubsidized conventional gasoline would cost consumer $15 a gallon. "Before we got this, I had the only oil in the world that didn't get a subsidy."
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fred schumacher Posted 9:14 am
01 Jan 2008
Right now the Canadian Pacific Railroad is trying to buy the Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern Railroad to convert it into a coal hauling railroad.
If electric cars are a way to maintain our present lifestyle and preference for land yachts, then the solution will be worse than the problem. Our present rate of energy use is completely unsustainable and should not be used as a model for future energy needs.
Corn ethanol has lately become a whipping boy for all kinds of problems. Farmers do not grow corn to feed you. They grow corn to provide a living for their families. If something comes along that provides a better living, they will switch to it. And it's farmers that decide what they want to grow, not the government, not banks, not technical experts and not bloggers.
One of those things could be cellulosic biomass crops. The advantages to farmers in the corn belt of growing a perennial crop are so huge that I can see a day when people will be begging farmers to grow corn. A biomass crop can provide three paychecks: the crop, carbon sequestration credits, and wildlife benefits. I'm a retired native grass farmer. Growing fuel and fiber crops has been part of agriculture for thousands of years.
Khosla is on to something big. Remember that commercial transport uses as much oil as private transportation, and commercial transport is not amenable to battery conversion. Linear transport running on rails should switch to mains electric power, but trucks will need portable fuel.
We have to take a systems approach to our energy future. We have to increase transportation fuel efficiency by a factor of four, through behavior and vehicle morphology change. What I've seen of battery and fuel-cell vehicles, they accomplish less than a doubling. Even my old beater 5-speed Neon gets a consistant 38 mpg. in mixed driving and I only paid $1,200 for it.
social problems demand social solutions
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GreyFlcn Posted 10:31 am
01 Jan 2008
But you're forgetting the efficiencies at play.
Coal may produce ~2x more CO2 per Btu
But electric cars are more than ~4x more efficient.
So it pans out that driving an electric car on coal is like driving a hybrid on gasoline.
http://aceee.org/pubs/t061.htm
http://epri-reports.org/PHEV-ExecSum-vol1.pdf
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2007/12/argonne-assesse.h ...
_
And ultimately electric cars create a wonderful solution for Renewable Electricity, specifically wind.
You have to charge you car for roughly 3 hours. But you got a 14 hour window of time to do it in.
If you charge whenever the wind is available, that removes one of winds biggest weaknesses.
We have to increase transportation fuel efficiency by a factor of four, through behavior and vehicle morphology change. What I've seen of battery, they accomplish less than a doubling.
Where did you read that?
Electric engines are 80-90% efficient.
Gasoline engines are only 15-20% efficient.
http://greyfalcon.net/raser
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Pangolin Posted 3:42 pm
01 Jan 2008
Right now the Canadian Pacific Railroad is trying to buy the Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern Railroad to convert it into a coal hauling railroad.Railroads are a very good long term investment right now regardless of their eventual use. In some areas they may become the only game in town.
If electric cars are a way to maintain our present lifestyle and preference for land yachts, then the solution will be worse than the problem. Our present rate of energy use is completely unsustainable and should not be used as a model for future energy needs.Our present lifestyle is unsupportable if electricity were free and cars were powered by Mr. Fusion. Climate change is only the first of a long list of growth limiters we are pushing into.
Corn ethanol has lately become a whipping boy for all kinds of problems. Farmers do not grow corn to feed you. They grow corn to provide a living for their families. If something comes along that provides a better living, they will switch to it. And it's farmers that decide what they want to grow, not the government, not banks, not technical experts and not bloggers.Farmers grow corn to feed the banks. The banks have a very short list of crops and cropping methods they will approve of in order for farmers to get capitol to continue for another year. Modern farming requires a change in banking policy as much as a change in crops or fertilization regimes. If the farmer can't please the banks or come up with the mortgage payments he's off the land.
One of those things could be cellulosic biomass crops. The advantages to farmers in the corn belt of growing a perennial crop are so huge that I can see a day when people will be begging farmers to grow corn. A biomass crop can provide three paychecks: the crop, carbon sequestration credits, and wildlife benefits. I'm a retired native grass farmer. Growing fuel and fiber crops has been part of agriculture for thousands of years. Biomass crops quickly become unprofitable to move off the farm if transportation costs are tied to rising petroleum prices. Solar and wind power already provide a greater per-acre return on energy than any crop that can be grown. Electricity transports itself on a wire and biomass can by processed on the farm and yield methanol and biodiesel on-farm with present methods. Much of todays corn acreage is going to be converted to pasture when it becomes clear that it's cheaper to let the cattle walk to the feed rather than truck the food to the cow. King corn is only possible due to subsidies, cheap fertilizer and fuel costs anyway. Farmers and ranchers are already proving that they can work less and live better keeping the cattle on pasture to fatten up with proper rotation of cattle and rest for the pastures. It's a high-tech replacement for the kid-with-a-stick but it's proven to work.
Khosla is on to something big. Remember that commercial transport uses as much oil as private transportation, and commercial transport is not amenable to battery conversion. Linear transport running on rails should switch to mains electric power, but trucks will need portable fuel. Google: pantograph. The San Francisco Muni runs electric buses on routes more challenging than the majority of roads in the country. Those buses go up hills off limits to truck traffic. Using overhead electric power on main roads only and battery/genset power on side roads 9/10's of trucking fuel could be saved the day the wires go up.
We have to take a systems approach to our energy future. We have to increase transportation fuel efficiency by a factor of four, through behavior and vehicle morphology change. What I've seen of battery and fuel-cell vehicles, they accomplish less than a doubling. Even my old beater 5-speed Neon gets a consistant 38 mpg. in mixed driving and I only paid $1,200 for it.A systems approach does not mean replacing fossil fuel with biofuel in the same vehicles, with the same wasteful loads on the same routes. Trucks running off overhead wires fed by solar panels and windmills en route would use significantly less fuel if only because they would feed the grid on every downgrade. In the long run we don't really need the truck or even the road if we were willing to convert to overhead monorails running mixed passenger and freight pods as packets as is common practice in factories. It's ironic but systems that were developed to move parts in auto factories could just as easily move people more efficiently than cars do.
Look up the difference between solar panel efficiency and plant growth. Plants are pathetic in converting sunlight to energy we can use compared to solar. Likewise electric motors driving wheels on steel rails are orders of magnitude more efficient than ICE engines driving rubber tires on asphalt roads. It's even worse when you compare the costs of road construction and maintenance to any rail system for any given level of traffic. Cars and trucks are just wasteful by comparison. Replacing petroleum with biofuels just delays the day of reckoning and conversion to more efficient systems.
Put the Carbon Back
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