Price does matter. So does public perception of likely future prices. As it becomes increasingly clear that high gasoline prices are not a fluke, Americans are adjusting their driving habits.
March 2008 saw "the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history" of total vehicle miles traveled (aka VMT) according to the Federal Highway Administration's monthly report on "Traffic Volume Trends" [PDF].
In March 2008, Americans drove 246 billion milles, compared to 257 billion in March 2007. Indeed, the March 2008 figure is lower than the March 2004 figure. To see just how remarkable that is, look at the annual vehicle-distance traveled data (in billions of miles) since 1983 (this is a moving 12-month total):
I wonder what will happen when gasoline hits $5 a gallon, and then $6, and then $7 in the coming years. Some of that will probably depend on whether we ever see a dip below $3 a gallon again. The longer prices stay high, the more people will start to make permanent adjustments in their driving -- and then, ultimately, in where they live, and so on. The more they fluctuate, the more people can hold onto the slim hope that they will go down and stay down for a long time, as in the 1990s.
I think we could see one more dip down to $3, especially if there's a global recession. But it seems hard to see how we can escape much higher prices over the next decade, given how we have refused for so long to adopt an intelligent energy policy. It will probably all come down to how quickly plug-in hybrids can scale up. Recent conversations have convinced me that could happen faster than I thought, but that is the subject of another blog post.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Oil: enough energy to melt glaciers!
Comments
View as Flat
human power Posted 10:48 am
28 May 2008
If those plug-in hybrids do come online soon, we can kiss what is left of our living planet good-bye. Half of our electricity is generated by coal, which just happens to be the only source likely to be expanded to meet the rising demand created by new gimmick wheelchairs.
Considering that the U.S. must reduce its emissions by 80-90% in the next 15-20 years to avoid the most severe tipping points, we have some serious choices to make. Which will we choose, a living planet without cars, or a dead one?
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Tasermons Partner Posted 2:58 pm
28 May 2008
Still, ya know what they say 'bout the journey of a thousand miles...
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Tasermons Partner Posted 3:06 pm
28 May 2008
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Flamingo Posted 12:13 am
29 May 2008
...that I hope you will write!
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guade00 Posted 1:19 am
29 May 2008
What's especially cool is that March was at least the third month running in which we observed a decrease. I haven't seen the 2006 figures, so it's hard to say whether there were decreases 2007-over-2006. But something is working, even if it is just high gas prices.
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kengrubb Posted 5:14 am
29 May 2008
A study by EPRI found that, even if most of our electricity continues to come from coal, we will still benefit greatly from PHEVs.
We'll reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and reduce petrol consumption. Also, plugging in PHEVs won't bring the power grid to a halt.
http://www.epri-reports.org/
There's a lot of data, but spend an hour and read the Press Release, Executive Summary, Technology Primer and PHEV FAQ. Then decide.
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Sam Wells Posted 6:40 am
29 May 2008
I don't know if EPRI has really evaluated regional markets to see what emissions come from electrifying certain sources such as cars and off-road machinery, since obviously some areas use more local than other, and state regulatory structures are complex.
One point, as I have found doing some work for EPRI, was that the cost of energy was cheaper when you compare kW-hours to use of fuel versus electricity. We have surpassed most the the "break-points" I had modeled (e.g., ~$3.50/gal diesel).
Upsteam and downstream costs and efficiencies for electric vehicles still haven't been standardized to my knowledge. Of course, if you're not talking plug-in vehicles, you can ignore my discussion. Hybrid combustion engines could turn out to be the worst of both worlds!
Onward through the fog
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