The Republican primary race has been astonishing from the word go -- less the embarrassment of riches of the Dem side than just ... embarrassment. It's been a roller coaster. Nonetheless, I'm going to go on the record predicting that McCain will take it.
Here's how I see it. Way back when, Santorum lost his Senate race and Bill Frist became a national joke and George Allen became a noncandidate thanks to macaca. At that point, everyone thought it was McCain's to lose -- the R's tend to like the next establishment successor, and he was the only one standing.
Then the immigration debate (among other things) blew him out of the water. Suddenly Giuliani was the big thing, the Daddy Figure they'd all been waiting on. Then Fred Thompson was the big thing, the Real Conservative. Then (well, now) Huckabee's the big thing, the Evangelical Insurgent. (Meanwhile, Romney's plugged away, sinking vast sums of money into the race in order to maintain tepid support.)
But it turns out voters hate Giuliani the more they see him. He has completely cratered. Thompson was surprisingly strong tonight, but still, the conventional wisdom that he's a stiff with no fire in his belly seems right to me. He'll continue fading. Huckabee peaked tonight, in a heavily religious state with massive evangelical turnout. The Republican establishment will never, ever let him win. He'll do worse in New Hampshire (less religious, more fiscally conservative) and then run into the right-wing buzzsaw of negative campaigning in SC (ironically, just what happened to McCain in 2000).
Romney got trounced tonight, in a state he'd spent millions of his own money on. It's a humiliation, and if all his work hasn't sparked any excitement yet, it probably won't.
Who does that leave? McCain, waiting in the wings, campaigning hard in New Hampshire. The media loves the guy (they're already calling his fourth place finish tonight a "win") and if he pulls a strong first place in NH, anxious R's are likely to put aside their beefs with the guy and rally behind him.
So after all this: McCain.
PS: Yes, McCain's good on warming, relative to the other R candidates. But there's also this:
100 years.
For McCain, it’s really all about the fake snow
John McCain’s troubles are the world’s troubles
Seven reasons for optimism about the Senate climate bill
Comments
View as Flat
caniscandida Posted 7:13 pm
03 Jan 2008
I agree, though, that McCain is resurgent, and may very well win the nomination. Romney has been deflating, and Iowa -- "I won the silver!," sure, but 9 points back?! -- ought to hasten that process. Nobody really likes Romney, and it is just an example of Republican weirdness at work that he has got this far.
As for Giuliani, I do not see how he can come back, playing this bizarre strategy of counting on all the centrist Republicans on February 5. If between now and then he parachutes into Waziristan and marches Osama bin Laden into Bagram AFBase at cutlass-point, that might help his chances some. But even then ...
Out of heartfelt compassion for the GOP, actually, I agree with something that Anna Quindlen wrote a few months ago in Newsweek, that nominating Giuliani would be great for them, it would force them to loosen up and start thinking.
Chickens are our cousins! So are fish! So are other sentient animals! Let us learn to be kind.
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Sean Casten Posted 11:39 pm
03 Jan 2008
Half of that obviously isn't going to happen at this point, but having McCain in on the R side would certainly elevate the subsequent conversation above what we're bound to get from any of the other Rs.
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Steven T Posted 1:09 am
04 Jan 2008
I suspect that outside of green and policy wonk circles global warming will not be a top issue. In addition, you can bet that vested interests will dump boatloads of money into attacks against Democratic proposals and candidates. It wouldn't seem that difficult for McCain and allies to by and large neutralize the Democratic presidential nominee's "ownership" of this issue in at least in some states -- which may be decisive swing states.
This is why I hope folks don't get prematurely optimistic. Despite the steady drumbeat of scary scientific findings, global warming could be a tricky issue to sell, at least in this election cycle.
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Delay And Deny Posted 5:07 am
04 Jan 2008
What's so wrong with a spirited race and debate?
As opposed to the now shattered Coronation of Queen Hillary I, which is now in shambles, the Republicans, wisely, have not deigned to crown anyone before the voters got a chance to vote!
It's called Democracy, letting the people, not a hoary dynasty, decide.
My Log
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wiscidea Posted 7:54 am
04 Jan 2008
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/events.phtml?format=alp ...
Wyoming will be sending 14 delegates to the Republican National Convention, New Hampshire only 12. Seems like Wyoming is sort of important. The two states are suppose to get 28 and 24 delegates, but are being punished by the Republican Party for moving their caucus or primary so far forward.
Perhaps Ron Paul will surge and get all the Wyoming delegates... giving Huckabee the 37 from Iowa, Ron Paul 14 from Wyoming, and McCain the expected 12 from New Hampshire before the next primary.
The results could reveal whether the west will reject or embrace candidates remotely concerned about the environment... that's the environmental hook that I'm using to justify this post.
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wiscidea Posted 7:59 am
04 Jan 2008
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josullivan58 Posted 3:47 pm
04 Jan 2008
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wiscidea Posted 5:39 am
05 Jan 2008
Is this a threat to McCain? Will folks in New Hamphire get behind Romney? Will western states go for Romney instead of McCain?
I really thought Ron Paul would be leading in Wyoming. There is apparently a large Mormon population there. And he actually visited the state. Oh well. It isn't over until it is over.
For AP story...
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jv_iErhSo7qRA5nI3OT21T ...
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