A stunning new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) finds that the growth rate of CO2 emissions has tripled in recent years:
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1 percent/year for 1990-1999 to >3 percent/year for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s.
That's right. CO2 emissions are rising faster than in the most pessimistic U.N. scenario. So much for all those ostriches and global warming delayers who say that economic growth is the key to solving global warming or that the U.N. scenarios are too extreme.
The study finds that "global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP." Sadly, "no region is decarbonizing its energy supply." In short, coal remains king.
The study also makes an important point about equity in global climate negotiations:
Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80 percent of the world's population) accounted for 73 percent of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41 percent of global emissions and only 23 percent of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century.
Cumulative emissions are what have driven the sharp rise in CO2 concentrations. So even as China is poised to become the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide on annual basis, it will be many decades before the poorer countries surpass the richer countries' total emissions since the dawn of the industrial age. That's a key reason the rich countries agreed to go first in reducing emissions at Kyoto -- that and the fact that the rich countries got rich by polluting and have an obligation to spend some of that money reducing pollution and helping poorer countries adopt cleaner technologies.
Finally, the study makes a point that has been a recurring theme of mine:
... the fraction of total anthropogenic [human-made] CO2 emissions remaining in the atmosphere ... has increased slowly with time ... implying a slight weakening of sinks relative to emissions.
The carbon sinks -- the oceans, forests, soils, and tundra -- are saturating, even as the carbon sources -- the burning of fossil fuels plus deforestation -- are growing.
Kudos to PNAS editors for making this an open access article.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
‘Copenhagen Diagnosis’ offers a grim update to the IPCC’s climate science
Copenhagen, U.S.A. December 7
Comments
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Pangolin Posted 5:18 pm
22 May 2007
That fire was put out by a fog bank.
There is no fog bank that will mute the damage that our folly on climate change has set off. We will wait until the weather hazards our existence and then fight over the right to keep polluting.
Put the Carbon Back
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JMG Posted 6:09 pm
22 May 2007
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-ft-tourism21may21,1,79 ...
Nice LA Times story on the realization among the tourism biz types that they have to start greenwashing immediately. All hotels to have little cards saying that you can choose not to have the sheets washed daily, if you like.
"An optimist is someone who thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist is someone who is afraid that the optimist is right."
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GonzoDon Posted 1:08 am
23 May 2007
Yipes. The last time one of our national leaders dared to float the concept of 'personal sacrifice' (President Carter), he got chased out of office by outraged free-marketers who found their salvation in another 'leader' whose primary attribute was delivering a feel-good message that, you know, we really had nothing to worry about. Ahhh ... that feels so much better!
So here we are, 30 years later, with a poorer national fuel economy standards, 10%(?) more carbon in the earth's atmosphere, and twice the number of humans on our planet, each seeking their own fair share of food and energy (which, from a sustainable-energy perspective, are really the same thing ...)
Fortunately, the national mainstream news media is right on top of this issue, of course -- oh look! over there! It's John Edwards is getting a $400 haircut!
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Delay And Deny Posted 3:06 am
23 May 2007
For instance, where are these CO2 metrics coming from? I followed the link and got a summary...I'd like to know how they're being measured.
Second, if it's the old isotope game, as in manmade CO2 is a different isotope, then I still have two questions that I've raised previously.
First, is the CO2 from permafrost the isotope of CO2 that is naturally in the air, or is it the same type as created by manmade burning of fossil fuels?
Second, since the new isotope is the one that accounts for the increase, has anyone studied whether it has the same greenhouse effect as the natural atmospheric CO2.
And lastly, the CO2 rate of growth went up threefold -- did the temperature growth rate go up three fold?
John Bailo, The "Denier Guy"
You Read It Here First
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d41295 Posted 7:54 am
23 May 2007
None of you, or me, is willing to sacrifice for global warming.
You all want your high-powered Internet servers and conference plane flights and book tours and ecotourism and air conditioning and all that crap.
None of you is willing to sacrifice anything whatsoever. You just want it to be carbon-free. It will never be.
Stop pretending. Your hypocrisy is disgusting.
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Backcut Posted 11:55 pm
05 Oct 2008
AND, all of this WITHOUT the legal requirement of NEPA and public involvement. Just look at how slow the fire season was, yet the USFS "burned up" their allotted budget in record time, now stealing monies from the rest of the Forest Service budget. Remember, we still have the Santa Ana's making an appearance very, very soon!
OOPS....got carried away
8^X
/lurk_mode=on
Scenic pics at http://Lhfotoware.blogspot.com
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