The end of an era

U.S. driving declines 18

I've seen this graph cited and reprinted here and there on the interwebs, but it's worth looking at again, if only to remind ourselves that something fundamentally different for the U.S. economy is underway:

DOT traffic trends

This is from a U.S. Department of Transportation report (PDF) on traffic trends.

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 10:37 am
    07 Jul 2008

    must verify thisit looks to me like, based on a USA population growth rate of ~0.9%, VMT per capita has been dropping for at least three years, before (and not including) the recent plummet.

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  2. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 11:24 am
    07 Jul 2008

    Not to be grumpy......and at the risk of getting eye-rolling from Dave, but gas prices have doubled, and the driving is only going down a few percent.  The country has become so  stuck in a car-centered lifestyle that it evidently will be very difficult to come down.. but other than that, great news!

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  3. GreyFlcn Posted 12:26 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    WellUntil of course, when these types of things kick in.

    http://autobloggreen.com/2008/05/07/who-else-thinks-the-p ...
    And there won't really be much of a problem powering em.

    http://greyfalcon.net/plugins4

    http://greyfalcon.net/plugins7

    http://greyfalcon.net/solarthermal

    http://greyfalcon.net/energy2.png

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  4. racc Posted 12:52 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    Which Will be a While or Maybe ForeverEspecially at $4000 a pop. Currently hybrids and electrics just aren't worth the extra money unless someone really drives a lot. Even the industry only expects 5 million to be sold per year by 2015. That is only 5% of all cars sold.
    As fuel sales decline either by people not driving or by people switching to more fuel efficient vehicles, so will the gas tax revenue that funds highways. Since no one seems to want to pay any taxes at all, the roads and bridges will continue to crumble making driving a poor option even if the fuel issues are solved.
    Driving is going way down before it starts going up again if it ever does.

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  5. racc Posted 12:56 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    Oops, that is $6,000 to $10,000Yikes, I didn't do my research. Sorry.
    http://www.pnl.gov/news/release.asp?id=204
    Since, PHEVs are expected to cost about $6,000 to $10,000 more than existing vehicles - mostly due to the cost of batteries -- researchers evaluated how long it might take owners to break even on fuel costs. Depending on the price of gas and the cost of electricity, estimates range from five to eight years - about the current lifespan of a battery.

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  6. NSaggie Posted 1:42 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    break even on batteriesThat economic assessment in the PNL link gave a high range of $3.50. In your country the average price is already over $4. In Canada it's almost $5.20 US. What will the price be in eight years when that battery needs to be replaced?

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  7. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 2:02 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    PHEV break even pointsthere's a linked study (pdf) -- they assume $2.50/gal for that "break-even" estimate. from page 5:
    Figure 1 shows the life-cycle-cost analysis results for purchasing and operating a PHEV compared with a conventional high-fuel-efficiency vehicle such as a Honda Civic. The results are expressed by diagonal break-even lines for varying gasoline prices. Each break-even line in the figure assumes a specific gasoline price and delineates a region below and to the left of the line in which a PHEV would have a lower life-cycle cost than a conventional vehicle and therefore would justify a premium purchase price. This is described as a cost-effective region. Above each line is the region where the PHEV is not cost effective. The premium can be read off the horizontal axis for a given electricity price. For instance, using California average residential rates of 12 cents per kWh and a price of the gasoline of $2.50 per gallon, the break-even point for the purchasing premium is $2,000 for California.  In the state of Ohio, with lower electric rates, the break-even point at the gasoline price of $2.50 per gallon is $3,000 (see Figure 1).
    estimating based on their chart, at current CA residential electricity price (rounding up: 15¢/kWh) and gas price ($4.50/gal) i think the break-even point -- the sticker price difference between honda civic and honda civic plug-in at which the "plug-in" pays for itself over the life of the car -- is somewhere above $6,000.
    current price difference between civic and civic hybrid is a little hard to figure out because the range for civic sedans runs from $15,000 (stick shift and spartan trim, compared to hybrid) to $21,000 depending on options. hybrid price is about $22,000.

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  8. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 2:34 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    (con'd)i've said this here already but a lot of people i know think plug-in hybrids are the big thing and i don't.
    over the next few years almost all of today's cars in the USA will lose tons of resale value because of sucky fuel efficiency. on top of that, there's no telling how much people will be able to borrow, given current circumstances. how long will our slump last? how much will banks be willing or able to lend. how many people will get pulled into the red. ok. yada yada yada, bears instead of bulls, financial crisis, etc.
    this puts the plug-in hybrid and even the regular HEV somewhere out in dreamland for most households. under similar circumstances japan transformed its kei car program to make the cars more appealing and useful to families. if gas prices are really up for good now we may have to do the same thing, at least until affordable 5-seater EVs are available -- unless we're willing to subsidize HEVs to the tune of something like $5000 per, for the whole fleet. or more.

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  9. David Roberts's avatar

    David Roberts Posted 3:43 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    Car sharing servicesCarpooling
    Vanpooling
    Telecommuting
    Shorter work weeks
    Job sharing
    Increased frequency of bus routes
    All these are short term options that will take the edge off a lot faster than replacing our car fleet with whatever whizbang new vehicle comes along.

    grist.org

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  10. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 4:21 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    aw c'mon, what about neighborhood EVs?They're here, there are thousands of them, and yeah, they don't go more than about 30 mph, they don't have "oomph", they have a low range, but they work and...did I mention they're here?  With some decent transit, you could drive them to stops and back.  check out GEMcars, at least...

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  11. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 6:39 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    i'll take...carpooling, vanpooling, shorter work weeks, expanded bus service
    but not sure about...
    ...car sharing services, because i don't know how actual trips these would offset, in moderate to low density america. (did people notice the miles driven dropped much more outside the cities?)
    ...telecommuting, because fewer people will be pushing paper, not more, as the twenty-teens get going.
    ...job sharing, because ditto, and if money's tight, "i need the hours."
    got nothing against NEVs of the future. current crop: seems like a lot of money to pay not to be able to use the highway. GEMs look fine. this is more what i was hoping for.

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  12. John former Marine Posted 10:14 pm
    07 Jul 2008

    Should I burn down my in-laws' house?My inlaws live alone (2 people) in a 5,000 sq. foot home that they heat and cool at incredible cost.  Since they have lots of space, they fill it with lots of useless stuff, including an extra refrigerator, which is kept running in the basement year-round even if all it's got in it is an ice-cube tray.  So, my question is, which would release more carbon into the atmosphere...letting them continue blundering through life wastefully until they kick the bucket of obesity/diabetes/heart disease in another 15-20 years, or burning their house down now and forcing them to downgrade to a much smaller, more efficient, more affordable home.  I've tried to convince them that they need to rent out 2/3 of their home as apartments but they're old people...which you know means they're greedy resource hogs who voted for Shrub twice.
    Also, while I'm at it, should I put sugar in the gas tank of their Astro van?  How much carbon would that put into the atmosphere versus them driving it around for another 10 years?

    Il faut cultiver notre jardin.

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  13. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 12:03 am
    08 Jul 2008

    you should......get a divorce. don't wait to be dumped, it's not manly.

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  14. GreenEngineer Posted 8:16 am
    08 Jul 2008

    Hapasnark

    chuckle

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  15. Angelsnecropolis Posted 10:12 am
    08 Jul 2008

    Shorter Work WeeksI agree with the shorter work week trend. I recently brought up the idea to my company since I travel 32 miles one way. I estimated a savings of over $500 annually at current gas prices. They thought it was a great idea and now offer the 4x10 shifts. I would recommend everyone to bring up the idea to their employer.

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  16. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 3:39 pm
    08 Jul 2008

    Catching Our BreathThe problem with automobiles is we don't drive them enough.  If we did, we would realize true efficiences.   Now that we are finding vast amounts of abiotic oil in Brazil and the Bakken Formation, we can finally realize the suburban dream for the many millions of people trapped in urban centers, living in one bedroom condoes and forced to ride pride-sapping "light rail" systems.

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  17. christophersj Posted 3:22 am
    09 Jul 2008

    AHAAHA!  Now I know you're a Grist staffer in disguise just trying to keep the posting lively.  Tee-hee... funny...

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  18. Jon Rynn's avatar

    Jon Rynn Posted 4:46 am
    09 Jul 2008

    Bailo you're hilarious

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