The cost of climate change

Turns out it’s high 11

Reducing our contribution to global warming may be expensive. Global warming itself, however, is likely to be much more expensive.

Supporting that last claim is a new report, the most definitive look to date at the economic impacts of climate change on Washington. (There's a shorter one for Oregon (PDF), published in 2005.)

I thought this lede from the Seattle Times was a great summary:

A warming climate could cost Washington governments and businesses tens of millions of dollars every year in drought-stricken crops, forest fires and tightened water supplies, according to a new state study.

It is the first such analysis illuminating how rising temperatures and shifting snow patterns could ripple through the economy.

Yakima Valley farmers could experience more crop losses as snowpack declines. Forest fires could double in size, driving up the costs of fighting them and hurting tourism. Dairies in Whatcom County might produce less milk. Cities, including Seattle, could spend millions more on water conservation or expand their water-storage dams. More than 50 square miles of Washington land could wind up underwater if sea levels rise two feet.

More media coverage here and here.

One of the report's primary authors is Yoram Bauman, a PhD economist and longtime Sightline Institute associate. I contributed to the report in a small advisory capacity.

Eric de Place is a senior research at Sightline Institute, a Seattle-based sustainability think tank, working on promoting smart policy decisions for the Pacific Northwest. Visit http://daily.sightline.org/daily_score to read more on Sightline’s blog.

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  1. Zarkov Posted 8:14 am
    11 Jan 2007

    Please ExplainI wonder if a professional could explain to me the logic that says rising temperatures as per a greenhouse effect (ie from an overpressure of CO2) will produce droughts ?
    From my science, droughts would be the least likely outcome, because as the seas get warmer then water evaporation increases, which leads to more clouds, rather than less clouds, which cools and brings rain.  Show me how a 1C temperature rise can "bake the ground dry".
    This is show down time..... because I will be out of here shortly.
    It seems the carbon dioxide proponents are changing their story day by day to fit the unfolding observations. This is not science, if anything this is total BS.  The science should predict the unfolding events, ACCURATELY, you can not afford a hit and miss approach.  If anything, the CO2 model has been shown to be false by the unfolding situation and can no longer be tenetable.
    If this is the case you guys are in real trouble.
    Y'all are in real trouble anyway, IMO, and no one has realised yet just what are the real and expected consequences of an oil film on the seas.
    If you don't accurately identify what is causing the climate shift, you won't be able to find a remedy,

    BUT more importantly you can not determine when the tipping point will occur, at which point from then on nothing can be done. Oh, you might have a foul tasting drink of something like cool clean fresh water, but where will the water come from to quench the parched land?
    IMO the tipping point passed several years ago, despite my loud and ?clear protestations, the climate just ignored me and so did the policy makers, LOL.  Your call now.

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  2. Eric de Place's avatar

    Eric de Place Posted 8:49 am
    11 Jan 2007

    The explainerZarkov,
    I'll use small words so that maybe you can follow along. The impacts of global climate change vary considerably by region. It is fairly straightforward to predict global temperature changes, but much harder to predict regional and local ones. (That's because global atmospheric systems are kinda sorta complicated.) And it is harder yet to figure out how local temperature changes impact conditions.
    But luckily for us, there are some really big brains working on the problem including, in support of this report, the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, which is one of the leading research organizations in the nation.
    So to return to your semi-question, how can climate change induce drought? It's pretty obvious if you think about it. Lots of places--like the Pacific Northwest and a huge swath of Asia--depend on snowpack for water. When the temperature goes up, the snow melts and also precip falls as rain instead of snow. So it's very possible for climate change to bring both more flooding (especially in the winter and spring) and more drought (especially in the summer and fall).

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  3. wackatalpidae Posted 9:08 am
    11 Jan 2007

    How I stopped worrying...and learned to love global warming.
    This nifty map show's that the average global temperature of our little planet generally does not exceed a very balmy 22C...
    http://www.scotese.com/images/globaltemp.jpg
    Granted, that is about 10C higher than it is today, but perhaps our species should just get used to this sort of fluctuation. If we survive long enough, we'll encounter it eventually.
    heheheheh

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  4. alienbuddha Posted 10:14 am
    11 Jan 2007

    The Wizard SpeaksI did not read this article nor it's comments completely but I must impress upon you to READ THE ONE AND ONLY HOLY BOOK in order to understand that the END OF TIMES is close upon us and your IMMORTAL SOUL is on the card table, with GALACTO and SATAN playing FIVE CARD STUD! HEED my warnings, READ my blog, which is full of the TRUTH and the LIGHT!
    BE NOT AFRAID!
    http://thewizardofarmageddon.blogspot.com/

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  5. Steven T Posted 10:44 am
    11 Jan 2007

    This is getting weirdI hope you don't let flamers take down a really valuable blog.

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  6. David Roberts's avatar

    David Roberts Posted 11:29 am
    11 Jan 2007

    Galacto?Just when you think you've got your wackadoo cosmologies in order, along comes Galacto to throw a metaphysical wrench in the works!
    (Don't worry, Steven T, I won't let it get out of hand. Now tell me, have you accepted Galacto as your lord and savior?)

    www.grist.org

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  7. Zarkov Posted 3:04 pm
    11 Jan 2007

    Explanation Rejected>> depend on snowpack for water.
    OK, so what is snow ?

    frozen rain (in a sense)
    Therefore if no snow melt then rain falls from the sky instead.
    As reported to me 20 years ago, the snow failed in Switzerland, but it still rained.
    And what explanations do you have for places where it used to rain, but no more.  Sorry you excuses do not cut with me, I am a hard headed scientist.
    Forget the small meaningless words, please reply to the question in scientific terms, I can take it.

    Ta.

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  8. jaybor Posted 6:50 pm
    11 Jan 2007

    DroughtZarkov, let me explain how it is happening here in Finland. You are right that we do get more rain. The problem is, that we get less rain during the growing season and more during the winter. AND the winter rain comes increasingly as water rain, not snow as it used to. That means it will flow away quickly in rivers, rather than being slowly released by melting in the spring. Net result: dry springs and summers.

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  9. KathyF Posted 7:27 pm
    11 Jan 2007

    JayborThat is exactly what is happening in England as well. I complained all summer about the drought, now I won't shut up about the endless rain.
    Another anomaly: If the Gulf Stream quits, it may very well be a deep freeze here in Northern Europe, while the rest of the world bakes.

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  10. buildgreeninc Posted 3:14 am
    12 Jan 2007

    Climate ChangeI'm not certain where most users live, but as a resident of New York City who walked out of my apartment last weekend wearing only a tshirt and jeans, rest assured that there is something highly suspect going on within our local environment.  These concerns coupled with a general interest in healthy living, with a minimal footprint lead me to branch out with a friend in the construction business to form Build Green Inc.
    If you live in the NY, NJ, CT area and are interested rennovating your home to reduce your dependency on energy, water, and toxic materials please stop by and check us out at http://www.buildgreeninc.com.
    Thanks,

    Build Green Inc - NY, CT: Residential building & renovation. Environmentally responsible homes.



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  11. Zarkov Posted 7:26 am
    12 Jan 2007

    Thanks GuysI am always interested in other people's backyards.
    All the Northern Hemisphere, is in transition from their normal climate to deserts, no snow is the first sign, then no winter rains, then....
    We have gone through all that down under, and now people are realising that all is not well...even in Finland.
    Ta

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