The coming epidemic

Avian flu is on its way, and we are not prepared 3

Never let it be said that I ignore signs sent to me by the internet gods.

Today two of the smartest folks I know separately wrote me and urged me to blog about the rising threat of avian flu and the developed world's dangerous inaction. Instead, I'm going to let them do it for me.

Tom's Dispatch is hosting a stellar piece of writing by Mike Davis, author of the just-released The Monster at Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu. It is a fairly easy-to-read primer on the threat the flu poses and the state of our preparedness (which is not -- spoiler alert -- good). Here's a taste:

As for a universally available "world vaccine," it remains a pipe-dream without new, billion-dollar commitments from the rich countries, above all the United States, and even then, we are probably too late.

"People just don't get it," Dr. Michael Osterholm, the outspoken director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota recently complained. "If we were to begin a Manhattan Project-type response tonight to expand vaccine and drug production, we wouldn't have a measurable impact on the availability of these critical products to sufficiently address a worldwide pandemic for at least several years."

"Several years" is a luxury that Washington has already squandered. The best guess, as the geese head west and south, is that we have almost run out of time. As Shigeru Omi, the Western Pacific director of WHO, told a UN meeting in Kuala Lumpur in early July: "We're at the tipping point."

Whee!

Taking a slightly more can-do tone, WC's Alex Steffen challenges bloggers and civilians alike to spread awareness of the threat in hopes we can collaborate our way out of it. He also has links to a number of resources and background materials. Of particular interest is this guide to spreading the word without spreading panic, by two World Health Organization communication advisors.

I highly recommend you read both pieces, educate yourself about the danger, and start pushing your state and federal representatives to put money behind serious preparation efforts.

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. mrsg00dytw0sh0es Posted 12:21 pm
    18 Aug 2008

    avian flu...the only threat of avian flu will probably come out of a government lab...avian flu has been around for centuries...it is less of a threat than the common flu...and that vaccine never works...always a differnet strain...and doctors never report the thousands who are injured by the vaccine
  2. Pangolin's avatar

    Pangolin Posted 12:54 pm
    18 Aug 2008

    Some sort of flu anywayWhile it is still unknown whether or not avian flu (correct me if I'm wrong but don't most flu's start out avian?) will evolve into a mass epidemic it is pretty much certain that some sort of flu will.
    Give the viral environment 6 billion incubators and one of them is going to nurture something that is just slow enough to spread wildly and still be fatal. It's too bad we aren't going to do anything effective to prevent such an occurrence
    The nasty thing about governance by popularity contest is that the most popular people are rarely the best informed on scientific matters. Bit of a fatal flaw that.

    Put the Carbon Back
  3. LGT Posted 1:23 pm
    18 Aug 2008

    Speaking of govt. labs"Was Dr Adu-Bobie A Victim of Biological Warfare Experiments?"
    http://feww.wordpress.com/2008/08/04/a-victim-of-biologic ...

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