Treehugger reports on a public bet I have made with Greg Blencoe, CEO of Hydrogen Discoveries:
Greg Blencoe wins if hydrogen fuel cell vehicles hit 1% of new sales of the typically-defined car and light truck market in the U.S. during 2015 or any year before. Joseph Romm wins if it is 2016 or any year after.
At stake is $1000, plus a certain amount of pride (if I lose, I must be photographed wearing a t-shirt saying "I was wrong about hydrogen.")
I am certainly prepared to make that bet with pretty much anyone -- though I might have to reconsider in the (very) unlikely event I get too many takers. Reasons why you shouldn't take the bet are below:
It took 8 years from the first introduction of hybrids for them to hit 1% of the new vehicle market. And they have many positive attributes:
- They can be fueled at 180,000 gasoline stations.
- They have up to double the range of a typical vehicle, and
- In many cases the extra cost is paid back in a few years from fuel savings.
2015 is 8 years from now -- we still don't have a single commercial fuel cell vehicle for sale. And whenever they do go on sale, they will no doubt
- be fuelable at under 1% of the filling stations
- have a shorter range than a typical gasoline vehicle, and
- have a big first-cost penalty that will never be paid back (since the annual fuel bill will probably be higher).
Hard to see how they gain market share faster than hybrids.
Any takers?
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Comments
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Matt G Posted 5:19 am
22 Oct 2007
Hydrogen would have been a great idea in a world with a high price for fossil fuels, had batteries not improved. But the price of fossil fuels won't reach the required levels in 8 years to have hydrogen make sense, and sustainable hydrogen generation wouldn't exist in sufficient quantity in 8 years even if we started building them right now.
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Sean Casten Posted 5:43 am
22 Oct 2007
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nearing Posted 7:33 am
22 Oct 2007
I am curious as to why you feel that that fossil fuels won't reach a high price.
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Matt G Posted 9:31 am
22 Oct 2007
So even if gasoline doubles in price, a hydrogen vehicle couldn't be more than, say, $15,000 more than regular cars and sell well.
Now, can gas prices more than double in the next 8 years? Sure. Can they more than double soon enough to build a large new market within 8 years? It just doesn't strike me as likely.
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Biodiversivist Posted 1:31 pm
22 Oct 2007
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
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JasonYohon Posted 11:59 pm
22 Oct 2007
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Delay And Deny Posted 1:55 am
23 Oct 2007
"fuelable at under 1% of the filling stations"
Yes, but right now LA, the biggest driving city in America is populated with H-filling stations thanks to Arnold (the real Nobelist). If we can just get LA to convert to hydrogen that would be a significant percentage of cars!
And if LA can build a hydrogen highway in 3 years others can as well!
"have a shorter range than a typical gasoline vehicle"
You assume zero progress in storage technology, yet in the past 2 years breakthrough research in materials that can hold hydrogen and release when needed (rather than using compressed gas) have been announced. Time to market is probably 2 to 3 years.
"have a big first-cost penalty that will never be paid back (since the annual fuel bill will probably be higher)"
The Chevy Volt, a plug-in electric, will have a hydrogen fuel cell option. It retails for $30,000 - since it's a compact, that probably is the $10,000 premium that you mentioned. But its still way affordable by a lot of people who would think nothing of plunking down $40,000 for an Audi or minivan
John Bailo
Sutext:
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GreyFlcn Posted 3:09 am
23 Oct 2007
But thats a fundamental misunderstanding of what this whole charade is about.
They can't stop electric cars.
But they can slow them down with flashy diversions.
Put it this way.
The tag line from Detroit is "Don't increase our fuel economy! No. We should switch fuels!"
And even if biofuels did work. The cars wouldn't really change, and the liquid fuel distribution centers wouldn't really change.
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GRLCowan Posted 3:12 am
23 Oct 2007
Introduction. For the past half century, most cities of population over 100,000 in industrialized nations have had dozens of industrial and research users regularly purchasing pressurized hydrogen gas in heavy steel cylinders containing about 0.5 kg H2 per cylinder. The price of this hydrogen has been reasonably stable at about $100/kg plus cylinder rental...
(http://www.dotynmr.com/PDF/Doty_H2Price.pdf)
That's enough of an existing hydrogen infrastructure to be very hard for a new, different one to beat on price, even if the stuff cost nothing at its points of production.
--- G. R. L. Cowan, boron internal combustion fan
How shall cars gain nuclear cachet?
http://www.eagle.ca/~gcowan/boron_blast.html
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GreyFlcn Posted 3:15 am
23 Oct 2007
Nitrogen fertilizers come from turning natural gas, into ammonia.
CH4 into NH3 + CO2
On that same measure, the only practical way to generate hydrogen fuel which reduces emissions is to create it from natural gas
CH4 into H2 + CO2
_
The companies that own most the rights to natural gas drilling are the same ones which own most the rights to oil drilling.
And currently the world's largest consumer of hydrogen, is oil companies.
Which they use to separate out he different fractions of a barrel of oil.
And more recently to separate out the sulfur in diesel and gasoline.
_
Oil companies are Hydrogen companies.
They are specialists in selling two atoms.
Carbon and Hydrogen.
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Darrell Posted 6:14 am
23 Oct 2007
Uh, hardly, about a whole six locations in all of Los Angeles County, according to the DOE: City of Burbank; Air Quality Management District in Diamond Bar; LAX Airport; City of Santa Monica; and Honda and Toyota in Torrance.
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