Last year I made 20 predictions for 2007 and it brought me nothing but woe and discredit. Yet sadistic Grist higher-ups demand I wade into the forecasting muck again, no doubt insuring further humiliation. (Though not professional censure. Remember, pundits face no penalty for being wrong, only for being shrill.)
This promises to be an especially perilous year for predictions. Much that happened in 2007 seems prelude, setting up events that will unfold in 2008 -- the elections, climate and energy legislation, legal battles, all significant and highly fluid. Events of great moment will transpire, but exactly what, well, how the hell should I know.
So I'm going to play it safe and certain: a prediction a day for a week, each with at least 90 percent probability (what IPCC would call "very likely").
1. The U.S. will get a new president.
I'm 98 percent sure on this. (Figure I owe Cheney and Addington 2 percent.) Beyond that is terra incognita. We're in a humdinger of a presidential primary, as odd and unpredictable as any I can remember (not that I remember that many).
In addition to the uncertainty there is, for me at least, much dread. Time for a serious response to climate change is dwindling. Leadership of the U.S. for the next four years could not be a more momentous matter.
In an unusually strong Democratic field, each of the three frontrunners still has an open shot. (Polls are mixed and inconclusive going into Iowa.) The Republican field is somewhat tragicomic and even more unsettled.
Every narrative about this election has been inoperative by the time the cyber-ink dries, and by now most political prognosticators are simply throwing their hands up and waiting to see what happens. (Perish the thought.)
My unofficial and almost certainly wrong specific prediction: After all the hubbub, it will end up being what everyone originally thought -- a Clinton-McCain race. Clinton will win narrowly.
Franken win means another likely Senate vote for climate action
Los Angeles rejects solar plan, still likes solar power
Comments
View as Flat
Blueplanet Posted 10:32 pm
01 Jan 2008
The increased price of tinned tuna, starving marine animals like birds and seals, jellyfish blooms, and the near eradication of some of the most iconic fish of the seas such as bluefin tuna and swordfish will show that overfishing is at least as great a challenge to us as climate change.
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wesrolley Posted 12:47 am
02 Jan 2008
The current presidency is focused on the accumulation of executive power with a Congress that does not push back enough to be effective. A Clinton presidency would be focused on the accumulation of Democratic Party power and the state-by-state, focus group by focus group approach to holding on to that power will be a triumph for King Coal, the nuclear alternative and other think tank approved propositions.
The 2000 election introduced me to Winona LaDuke, VP Candidate who ran with Nader. Through her championship of the issue, I became aware of the 7th Generation Amendment.
The more I consider the plight of the planet now, the more I wish we had listened to LaDuke.
Wes Rolley
CoChair - EcoAction Committee
Green Party US
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swan Posted 1:35 am
02 Jan 2008
The case of the marbled murrelet is a clear issue. It involves a rare and beautiful little bird on one side and all the forces of greedy corporations and corrupt politicians on the other. For a rundown check out the latest post at http://goodwordswan.wildflowerstew.com
It's time to win the hearts and minds if we are going to save this planet
. . . . swan . . . . . .
"Us nature mystics got to stick together." Edward Abbey
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amazingdrx Posted 1:57 am
02 Jan 2008
No major wind, solar, or renewable smart grid initiatives.
No action on offshore or great plains wind.
No major electric mass transit plans.
More complaining about all this not getting started on this and other blogs. No notice in the mass delusional main stream media, captivated as they will cointinue to be with tabloid campaign news and lurid murder and sex stories.
Media will continue to become even more "fair and balanced" highlighting GHG climate change deniers wherever they can be found.
Gas prices will continue to rise, reaching 4 bucks+ next fall. Actual standard of living will continue to fall as jobs are outsourced and inflation in food and energy run rampant.
The fed will ignore inflation and keep lowering rates to quell the mortgage crisis turned into a full blown global financial crisis. Mass media will continue to ignore the crisis.
The war on terror will expand with attacks inside Iran by US forces. Efforts to get Bin Laden will continue to fail. No US troop withdrawals from Iraq.
A pretty gloomy year, but bush will finally be un-appointed. That will be the only bright spot, and won't really be sure and final until jan 2009.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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justlou Posted 3:25 am
02 Jan 2008
It will take a miracle by Clinton along the lines of making a $60,000 profit on an initial investment of $1,000 in cattle trades:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/whi ...
"Banana, banana, banana! Everybody like banana! Nobody like banana!"
Is this all getting a bit too surreal?
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Pangolin Posted 3:31 am
02 Jan 2008
A tornado will destroy a town in the great lakes area. Despite the fact that it will be one of the largest tornado swaths recorded all official sources will decry any connection to climate change.
August 1st., north polar sea ice falls below all previous records as Greenland glacial melting is estimated to exceed the flow of the Amazon river. Climate change deniers will claim that this is not significant and that it was warmer in the middle ages.
A class five hurricane will develop in the Gulf in 24 hours from the first tropical storm notice a day later it slams into the coast devastating a population unprepared to evacuate. Not climate change related.
Both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates will promote "clean coal" as the solution to rising energy costs. None of the pundits on TV will notice the lack of a functional clean coal technology.
In October a cruise ship in the Gulf of Mexico will be bracketed by suicide bombers in boats full of explosives. The ship is sunk in under and hour with only 248 survivors. Mitt Romney is elected president in the hoopla following. Bloggers complaints of massive vote rigging are ignored.
No electric cars or plug-in hybrids will be produced. Health care in the US will continue to deteriorate. Rising food costs spur incidents of mass attacks on supermarkets where dozens of people leave the store with unpaid groceries at the same time.
Things will be worse than this but with different details still we will do nothing.
Put the Carbon Back
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Greta Posted 4:22 am
02 Jan 2008
To chicken to predict a Gore-Edwards ticket? ;-)
I predict that European countries, and other financially savvy nations, will begin/continue to buy up America in record purchases -- taking advantage of the worthless U.S. dollar. (And just as I was trying to move there, with my sad U.S. dollar.)
Soon, we will be the world's bitch...and deservedly so.
www.NoPunProductions.com ~ AmericaTheGreen.org
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amazingdrx Posted 5:47 am
02 Jan 2008
The bitch boy bush, to cheney daddy role is a forerunner of this change. It's metrosexual toe tapping for the future US male image. It was inevitable with loss of empire.
Minority men are taking the field as far as real male image. The traditional ruling male class is only valued for it's money and power. Society prefers others for actual sex symbols.
US boy to manhood, life's going to be a bitch for the class that used to rule for quite awhile.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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sycamore Posted 2:32 pm
02 Jan 2008
The American people will finally get fed up and bring back the guillotine - drag that Georgia roadside amphibian Newt Gingridge onto the National Plaza and start to clean house in Washington.
The Middle class suburban professional who have been selling their over priced legal, accounting, finical, medical, services etc. to the working stiffs of America will realize that the Lobotomy they had in 2000 when they voted for Bush is going to cost them their McMansion and their Lexus.
The Bankers will get theirs. They have it coming. We the People are out of money!
The Republicans will be unable to field a Presidential candidate due to ramped cannibalism. They eat their young.
The one bright spot in 2008 will be Dennis Kucinich. He will quit politics and join the Justice League and with his new wife Wonder Woman they will fight evil, corruption, pollution, global warming, inequality, deforestation and religious fanaticism. Together they will restore the American way of life and bring peace to the World. This I believe.
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
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katakanadian Posted 3:16 pm
02 Jan 2008
I would change your arctic sea ice prediction though. August is too early in the melt season. I would predict that a record will be reached by mid-September although strong projections of a record may be obvious by August.
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Greta Posted 3:57 am
04 Jan 2008
(If elected, Clinton will compromise too much [for my taste], but likely get more than others because of her political clout.)
www.NoPunProductions.com ~ AmericaTheGreen.org
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Greta Posted 4:07 am
04 Jan 2008
The public will rally behind Pres. Edwards, and we will see a new, expanded movement of citizen activism. This force majeure will represent a new source of power.
:-)
www.NoPunProductions.com ~ AmericaTheGreen.org
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sycamore Posted 3:21 am
05 Jan 2008
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
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caniscandida Posted 4:51 am
05 Jan 2008
Chickens are our cousins! So are fish! So are other sentient animals! Let us learn to be kind.
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Greta Posted 7:23 am
05 Jan 2008
I get "nailed" on those carbon calculators for being a single-person household -- even though I live in an energy-efficient (avg. $35/mo. electric) 1300 sq.ft. townhouse, which also is my office.
Perhaps the Edwards and the Gores, and the like, are efficiently using all 28,000 sq. ft. As the arguments been made before, all that space might be used to house multiple families (staff, caretakers) or extended family, and/or multiple offices. Perhaps not.
Yeah, I suppose that a John Edwards or an Al Gore could go to the YMCA to work out each day instead of having their own gym.
Even environmentalists have guilty pleasures (meat eating, procreating, trips to grandma's house, etc.), which hopefully they try to keep to a minimum.
The Edwards home is on 102 acres. Do we give him credit for land conservation? Carbon credits for the carbon sink of the "heavily wooded" site? Personally, I think the 28,000 sq. ft. of buildings is a worthwhile trade off for the conservation of 100 acres of land -- especially in well-developed Orange County, NC.
It is all very complex and I would not want to judge without knowing the details. Lifestyle choice most certainly is a fair question to ask of any and all presidential candidates.
Hey, I would love nothing more than to help elect an environmentalist/vegan/animal rights activist/conscientious consumer/carbon neutral/non-smoking president. But, I don't think that the rest of the country is ready for Dennis Kucinich.
www.NoPunProductions.com ~ AmericaTheGreen.org
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sycamore Posted 5:11 am
06 Jan 2008
I am not being unkind when I point out the disparages between a candidates voiced positions and their actions. I have a lot of compassion for Mrs. Edwards battle with cancer and the great stress that it puts on the whole family. My wife is a cancer survivor and I know from personal experience of the horror of cancer. John Edwards has my respect in many areas. Anyone who sues corporate America is my best buddy. I don't care if he got rich doing it, power to him. Taking on big Pharm, Big Oil and old man Coal is what all the Democrat candidates should be doing. I am not an Edwards detractor but a voter who thinks if you talk the environmental talk you must walk on the path of conservation of resources and not the path of conspicuous consumption. As for the need for a big house, the second richest man in America lives in a modest ranch house in Oklahoma that the and his wife purchased a few years after they were married. He flies commercial airlines and catches rides with his friends. Now that is environmentalism.
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
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sycamore Posted 5:14 am
06 Jan 2008
Well maybe that is the problem. Environmentalists should be making the country ready for a Dennis Kucinich. There is no need for a trade off. Edwards could have done both, built a modest, energy efficient and sustainable home for his family and still conserved 100 acre of land. How one chooses to live in their environment is one of the most important questions that we should be asking our Presidential candidates. If we think we are going to lead the world the people we elect should be the example. This along with other social questions like how we allocate the resources of this planet should be at the top of the debate. To Edwards credit he is trying to do some this with his campaign he just falls short as an environmental candidate.
However, he is heads above Hillary and Barack as a candidate of the" people". So hey, you don't have to compromise on that dream candidate. He is out there right now and you just named him Dennis Kucinich. People need to vote their convictions not try to pick a candidate they think could win! Hey I did that in 2004 and I am still kicking myself.
You must be the change you wish to see in the world.
-- Mahatma Gandhi
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GreenMom Posted 7:48 am
06 Jan 2008
It was in the local paper down here a while back -- I mentioned this on another thread, but there's a lot of overlapping campaign discussion going on in the last week or so on Grist, so sorry for repeating myself.
I vaguely remember reading that the Edwards' have other green design measures as well, but I don't know what they are.
FWIW, I had the good fortune of meeting Elizabeth once in a non-political context, and getting to chat (about kids, not politics). She seemed to me to be very genuine, likeable and down to earth.
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caniscandida Posted 9:57 am
06 Jan 2008
Anyway, he apparently has got a lot of grief from supporters who were disappointed that he asked his caucusers in Iowa to choose Barack Obama, not John Edwards, as their second choice. In his protest message, he does not defend his choice of Obama, but explains that he disapproves of Edwards because of that hedge fund connexion of his, which, Dennis claims, is still controlling him.
Well, I do not know, but I am satisfied with Edwards's defense, that his involvement with the hedge fund was not long, and the purpose of it was not so much to make money as to learn.
But this is perhaps all academic, at this point.
It is interesting, though, that Edwards seemed to be trying hard to get in good with the Obama crowd last night. Would he actually be willing to accept Obama's VP slot? After his bad experience with John Kerry?
Chickens are our cousins! So are fish! So are other sentient animals! Let us learn to be kind.
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GreenMom Posted 12:23 pm
06 Jan 2008
I heard some commentary suggesting that Edwards is trying to knock Clinton off and then go up mano a mano against Obama, in order to let the voters decide who's the real the candidate of change.
Anyway, I know it's really too early to speculate, but rather than Veep it'd make sense to see Edwards as Secretary of Labor, or Sec. of Health and Human Services. Then he could be in charge, and really do something.
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