Carbon goes the wrong way

Power plant performance down in 2008 6

Power plant CO2 intensity

Here’s an interesting followup to last week’s post about about the uncertain links between recession and long-term climate change: Shakeb Afsah at Climate Data Due Diligence wrote to tell us that even though total carbon emissions from power plants fell in 2008, the carbon intensity of the power sector—that is, the amount of CO2 released per megawatt-hour of power produced—increased last year.

In the chart to the right, the yellow line at the top shows the tons of CO2 released per megawatt-hour of electricity produced by the nation’s power plants. And just as the recession kicked in in 2008, the CO2 intensity of the U.S. power system—which had been steadily improving for the previous four years—went in the wrong direction.

Ultimately, of course, it’s the total CO2 emissions that matter, not the emissions intensity. But it’s still somewhat disheartening to see the carbon-intensity trend move in the wrong direction, since it doesn’t bode well for the performance of the power sector once the economy recovers. After all, the climate crisis is a very long term problem; we need to make real, tangible progress in our emissions performance no matter what the economy does in the short term. And that puts an even bigger premium on making sure that we’re making the right kinds of stimulus investments while the economy is down: we want to be sure we emerge from the recession in a better position than we were when we went into it. That makes the carbon intensity figure one that’s worth watching.

This post originally appeared at Sightline’s Daily Score blog.

Clark Williams-Derry is research director for the Seattle-based Sightline Institute, a nonprofit sustainability think tank working to promote smart solutions for the Pacific Northwest. He was formerly the webmaster for Grist.

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  1. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 8:08 pm
    13 Apr 2009

    "like, wow, dude, the economy went to the crapper and that had a seriously negative impact on the economy-to-pollution ratio."
    And just as the recession kicked in in 2008, the CO2 intensity of the U.S. power system—which had been steadily improving for the previous four years—went in the wrong direction.
    "and, like, wow, i know, like, the wealth from the middle of the decade was, like, fake, but that totally fake but totally sweet carbon intensity improvement really looked good on my powerpoint charts, so, now i'm totally bummed."
    it doesn’t bode well for the performance of the power sector once the economy recovers.
    "because, like, before, when there was a lot of money, nobody was building coal-fired power plants, but now, because there isn't money and people still want electricity, that means investors are going to start building dirty power plants when there's more money and credit, because, like, the investors are all like punch drunk and PTSD-flashbacking to the 1970s, right? so now they think it's 1979 and they're all like, got to build coal."
    That makes the carbon intensity figure one that’s worth watching.
    for instance, one can ignore straight-faced citations of carbon intensity.
    i can't even believe i just read this article.
  2. garyshu Posted 3:39 am
    14 Apr 2009

    There's a pretty simple explanation why carbon intensity went up -- the peaker and more expensive natural gas plants (with half the carbon intensity of coal) turned on less often, making power cheaper, but also more of it powered by coal.
  3. hapa's avatar

    hapa Posted 7:17 am
    14 Apr 2009

    wow, i don't think i've ever made a mistake that big in any conversation, and i wasn't drunk, tired, rushed, angry, and i have no truck with clark. i was just stupid. how did i do that. my first comment should be killed, it was caused by reading an article that was completely in my own head.
    i'm having a really bad reading experience with the new site. to those who haven't "ignored" me for that misfire, i don't want to look like i'm blaming change for my own humiliating ungenerous idiocy, but if i make a mistake like this, the "reading environment" is not smooth.
  4. jestbill Posted 11:50 am
    14 Apr 2009

    HAPA:I'm guessing that your "error" was that you've listened to the Bush administration and it's messed up your thinking.  They wanted to measure everything relative to GDP so the US would be free to do nothing about any of it.  There are internet sites devoted to that kind of analysis:Co2 intensity: CO2 emissions per GDP  http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/index.php?action=select_countries&theme=3&variable_ID=468Ennyhoo, if a writer is presenting evidence about CO2 and tries to confuse the "total emissions" with indices related to GDP or other barely related matters, chances are they are producing FUD, not FOOD for thought. 
    1. hapa's avatar

      hapa Posted 6:45 pm
      26 Apr 2009

      also i am an uncharitable moron.
  5. Sean Casten's avatar

    Sean Casten Posted 2:56 pm
    14 Apr 2009

    I believe Gary is right, although it would be interesting to see the raw data.  When load curtails for any reason, the first stuff to fall off the dispatch curve is inefficient simple cycle gas turbines, which are more expensive than central coal, but have a lower carbon intensivity.  That's not of particular long-term concern, to the degree that that is the cause.

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