Good to the Last Drop

Umbra on peak oil 6

Dear Umbra,

I have recently been alerted to what many people term "peak oil." I don't know how to characterize my feelings regarding this subject. Obsession might be a good term. I feel that I need to prepare. What do you think? Is "peak oil" another Y2K?

Michael
Pittsburgh, Pa.

Dearest Michael,

Who cares if it's another Y2K? Prepare away, my friend. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Eternal sunshine of the oil-less mind.

Photo: iStockphoto

Peak oil is a concept originally developed by a geophysicist, Dr. M. King Hubbert, which is why it is sometimes called Hubbert's Peak. Hubbert geophysicked his way through oodles of data and concluded that oil production would follow a bell-shaped curve. The peak of the curve would represent the highest production, and the curve's downslope would represent the increasing difficulty of extracting usable oil from the field. On the downslope, oil costs rise, and eventually the difficulty of extraction is not worth the financial returns -- id est, we basically run out of oil.

Those of you who are not yet obsessed can get more information about the current debate on peak oil from -- well, why not start in our very own Gristmill? The debate there consists of all manner of claims, like "Hubbert was right about oil reserves in the U.S., so that proves a global peak exists!"; "Hubbert didn't account for technological advances!"; "We have already started down the global curve, so get ready for global markets to collapse!"; "We're not going to run out of oil, I've discovered reserves in my armpit!" and so on, with a few useful resources thrown in for good measure. You might also read Grist's interview with peak-oil author Matthew Simmons, a former Bush-Cheney energy-policy adviser who is quite sold on the notion, and read up on biofuels in Grist's special series that starts today.

I think to have a worthy, scientist-type opinion about peak oil, one needs to do quite a bit of reading about global oil supply, global oil politics, geophysics, and the like. I just can't summon the passion you feel and do all that reading, because my obsession cancels out your obsession. My obsession, of course, is global climate change.

Our obsessions are related. I grant you, the action plans for them might differ a tad. For example, if you are mainly concerned about peak oil, switching to coal power is a choice you could make. You also might be more concerned about your oil-related market investments. If you are expecting petroleum to skyrocket in price sooner than your climate will irrevocably morph, your survivalist blueprints will reflect that bias.

But I'd like to argue that you should go ahead and prepare for peak oil's imminence, in whatever ways you can. I'll just have to imagine what you already have in mind, but let's say it includes de-emphasizing your car; reworking your home heating, cooling, kitchen, and electrical systems; divesting of oil-related stocks; getting your home garden up to speed; building up food networks in your local community -- things like that. None of these actions would harm you in any way should oil not skyrocket in price, and, save for using coal, all would certainly benefit the global climate.

If your obsession were slightly different -- let's say you thought cats were the answer to our fuel problems -- I would do more thorough research for you and dissuade you. But this obsession seems a good one -- so go for it, spread the word, and we'll all be happy to come to you when you turn out to be right and ready.

Unctuously,
Umbra

 

Yours is to wonder why, hers is to answer (or try). Send your green-living questions to Umbra.

Umbra Fisk is Grist Research Associate II, Hardcover and Periodicals Unit, floors 2B-4B.

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  1. taracee Posted 10:29 am
    04 Dec 2006

    peak oilI found the article "The End of Cheap Oil" by Campbell and Laherre very useful to help understand the whole peak oil issue... It is a little old- Scientific American, March 1998, but thorough.

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  2. Andy Bell Posted 12:13 pm
    04 Dec 2006

    Good to the Last DropA compelling book that offers insight (in a very readable way) into the approaching Peak Oil crisis is "The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophies of the Twenty-First Century" by James Howard Kuntsler.  I have recommended this book to almost everyone I know.  Those who have read the book now look at our future as a species in an entirely new light.

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  3. LazyL Posted 3:59 am
    05 Dec 2006

    Cats are the answer!The gist: When a cat is dropped, it always lands on its feet. And when toast is dropped, it always lands with the buttered side facing down. If we strap buttered toast to the back of a cat, the two will hover, spinning inches above the ground. With a giant buttered cat array, a high-speed monorail could easily link New York with Chicago.
    I didn't invent this. Cf. the "buttered cat array" below:
    http://www.deepscience.com/justsilly/fun006.html

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  4. caniscandida Posted 4:44 am
    05 Dec 2006

    "buttered cat"Laurie, this is magnificent!  Little Dog tells me she definitely wants to run this experiment, pronto.

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  5. bmon Posted 12:08 pm
    05 Dec 2006

    Olduvai theoryFor a primer on peak oil analysis start here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

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  6. Samantic Posted 10:35 am
    11 Dec 2006

    not really getting at the problemI know I'm weighing in way late on this.  I am mainly using it to clarify my own thoughts on the issue.  Unfortunately I don't think Umbra has it right when she says preparing will only be a good move, regardless of what happens.  I am part of a local environmental group struggling with what end up being diverging responses to the threat of peak oil.  On the one hand, there's a lot of survivalist personal preparation one could engage in.  That tends to be uncomfortable for most in our group on moral grounds.  But the alternative appears to be so milquetoast as to be essentially ignoring the problem we set out to respond to in the first place, namely, working on increasing awareness and expanding local resources/options for people in our area (we are an isolated small town, complete with strip and few options on some of the more important fronts, like transportation and energy choice).  For the time being we are headed (headlong, with lots of energy, projects and enthusiasm) down path number two, but all the while actual preparedness seems to elude us, even receding while we're distracted.
    I should also say that education and awareness where we are are a tall order.  Green, sustainable, triple-bottom-line, whatever -- it's all foreign, largely discounted and actively reviled.  For the benefit of those sitting in the midst of primed enlightenment, it's just a wake-up call about middle-American willful blindness.
    Entirely separate from all that are the difficulties associated with choosing one's battles between as Umbra mentioned global warming and peak oil.  Keeping both in one's sights, along with the greater good, acheivability and a major overhaul of the insides of most American's heads has me a bit dizzy.

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