June 2008 saw another sharp drop in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) according to the Federal Highway Administration's monthly report on "Traffic Volume Trends."
Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007 -- beating the record-setting drop of March.
Since last November, Americans have driven 53.2 billion miles less than they did over the same period a year earlier -- topping the 1970s' total decline of 49.3 billion miles ...
The moving 12-month trend-line is startling and again makes clear $4 a gallon is the first (but not the last) genuine tipping point for U.S. drivers:
I think that the WSJ's Environmental Capital blog has accepted a U.S.-centric view that misses the key point with their post, "Driving's Really Down -- But For How Long?":
The big question -- will the driving downturn last? Oil prices have already come down more than 20% in the last month, and gasoline prices are falling too (if more slowly). The travel industry thinks people are getting used to pricier gas, and thinks there'll be a rebound. From AP:
Travel Industry Association spokeswoman Cathy Keefe said the June driving decline "is not surprising, given the environment that we were in." But she was optimistic that the recent drop in gas prices to below $4 a gallon in many parts of the country will have travelers on the road again. "I think people have started to take the increase in gas prices somewhat more in stride," Keefe said.Higher oil prices stunted demand, which in turn have helped bring oil prices back down. Now what?
Americans have cut back on oil consumption about 800,000 barrels a day in the first half of this year. But global demand had been rising 1 to 1.5 million barrels a day each year for a while now. So unless the United States keeps reducing demand at this pace -- which is obviously quite unlikely absent a major push to fuel-efficient or alternative fuel vehicles -- we will very rapidly find ourselves back in the supply-demand mismatch that drove oil prices up to record levels in the first place.
It is time for the media and the MSM's "experts" and politicians to take off the rose-colored glasses once and for all -- the price of oil is now not in the control on U.S. consumers or even the Saudis. We are headed toward $6 gas and $8 and then higher. Whether it occurs in two years or five years or 10 years depends primarily on whether the world falls into a global recession or, on the other hand, whether there is yet more conflict in oil rich regions.
Who is going to tell the public this truth?
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Cash for Clunkers brought us ... more clunkers!
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amazingdrx Posted 2:14 pm
14 Aug 2008
Did long haul trucks cut their mielage too? They could with trains hauling more of their longer loads.
And how about the shift to mass transit, car polling, bikes, economy cars, and other conservation measures? Could these sort of reductions go on for a few years before even beginning widespread use of plugin hybrids?
Yeah we could get a 15% reduction over 3 years this way, then plugin hybrids could hit mass production and wide availability and keep the roller coaster going downhill, 5% per year reduction year after year. It's doable.
Would OPEC and big oil be on their knees begging for a break by the end of Obama's first term? And the term neocon be a dim dark memory? That would be a shame.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
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greentiger Posted 2:52 pm
14 Aug 2008
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wildleaf Posted 1:06 am
15 Aug 2008
So yes, It is cool that people are driving less by the numbers and I hope it continues, but it absolutely sucks that the people who are driving less are sliding into hopelessness. This is not something to celebrate. Hybrid plug ins are going to make rich Americans able to drive more cheapily, but the poor folk are still going to be screwed. I wonder how many poor people and communities who don't have infrastructure for mass transit or economies to buy fuel efficient vehicles will become ghettos full of crime?
The Black Car Project Killing cars before they kill us!
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amazingdrx Posted 5:41 am
15 Aug 2008
But voluntary reduction is better. Rationing should be saved for war or storm emergency supply interuption.
But it is a sort of economic "stick" (as in TR's prescription to "speak softly but carry a big stick") to keep on call in case of emergency. OPEC has the supply levrage, so we need demand recution leverage.
Besides which, just the insurance mechanism of rationing, and gradual voluntary reduction, will stop oil inflation. Srengthening the dolloar which further fights inflation. With economic confidence restored that can take us out of recession and get those suffering from unemployment, back working again.
Then the investment and employment boom spurred by renewable/ conservation energy and ag policy can take off.
Or would it be better to whine and drill, drill, drill... rather sell the rest of the oil leases into monopoly control and hope they lower oil prices. I know it's fun to whine. Ok vote for mcBush then.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
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Wolverine Posted 6:01 am
15 Aug 2008
While I share your attitude that I'd much rather have the rich forced out of cars than the poor, and I'd rather have everyone forced out of them in the best case, the poor will always bear the brunt of whatever sacrifices a society makes and whatever problems it has, because they're the most powerless. And it doesn't matter to the Earth who drives, just that less oil is being consumed and burned.
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amazingdrx Posted 1:56 am
16 Aug 2008
Forcing disaster on the climate, economy, and nations targeted for oil war.
The non-violent method to counter that force? An oil demand reduction plan using conservation and a transition to renewable electric powered transportation and heating.
Zero oil use, gradually decreasing over 20 years is possible. With job, manufacturing, and tax base rejuventating results.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
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