It's official. China is now the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases.
Having spent much of this spring reporting in China, I'd like to second just about everything David said yesterday on the topic. But I have one ginormous point to add.
It's not just money that's needed. Yes, it'd be a good thing if Hill folks stopped bashing technology-exchange programs as lending an "unfair competitive advantage." And yes, let's stop painting China as the international bad guy. It ain't helpful, especially when the Chinese can rightly point out that Americans and Europeans are still, per capita, the world's energy hogs.
But the really troubling thing is that, even when Beijing is trying to do the right thing -- and they have some surprisingly progressive energy targets on the books -- the government often can't enforce its own edicts. Wonks call this a "rule of law" problem. By Beijing's own estimates, one-fifth of power plants operate illegally, dodging the government's own environmental regulations and best intentions.
I don't mean to sound hopeless. I'm actually hopeful about some of the broader changes underway in China that might make solutions more workable. (Sorry to be elliptical; I write about this in an upcoming Washington Monthly article, but, jiminycrickets, I don't have an online link yet.)
In the meantime, yep, the West should take some responsibility for helping China, India, and Africa avoid the worst of the worst on global warming. If not for their sake, then for ours.
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Comments
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David Roberts Posted 8:18 am
21 Jun 2007
I think of "help with sustainable development" as lots more than money, obviously. But government reform and rule of law, what you're talking about, strikes me as absolutely the hardest thing. How can we help? More to the point: how can we try to help without inadvertently doing more harm than good?
I guess I'll have to read your piece!
grist.org
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Werdna Posted 9:16 am
21 Jun 2007
It's not that they can't enforce the laws, but that they don't want to. It would be easy for the Chinese government to do so if they wanted. They are only holding back in order to feed their voracious growth.
Andrew Eisenberg
The gateway project is wrong---http://www.livableregion.ca/blog/blogs/index.php/
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David Roberts Posted 9:57 am
21 Jun 2007
Also, um, Christina was in China. Reporting. Just saying.
grist.org
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noolympics Posted 12:35 pm
21 Jun 2007
Local governments only care about their economic growth rates. There are several reasons. First, they are rewarded based on the local GDP growth. Second, at the provincial level, most government heads are from without these provinces. They do not care about the long-term development or environment of these provinces (say the governer of the Guangdong province cannot speak Cantonese, a local dialect of Guangdong). The Chinese Communist Party purposely does that to avoid a province to become too independent (the same system applies to the armies). Third, local governments have no incentives (no rewards) to reduce air pollution or other kinds of pollution. Fourth, local governments are very corrupt. They receive bribe money from evil factories. It is also common that local party members own their own evil factories.
The central government is not much better. Look at the CEO's of the power companies. They are the sons or daughters of old powerful party members (say the daughter of Li Peng, the muderers of student protestors on June 4, 1989, is the CEO of China Power). The so-called "legal powerplants" are also out of control. They actually have the "rights" to escape from any punishment from violating the regulations. In other words, they are the "legal violators".
Sounds like a Maffia state, right? No, it's worse than that cause these Maffias are not dealing drugs; they are polluting the environment "legally".
Stop talking about "China" polluting the world cause common Chinese are not polluters. They are the victims of pollution in China, just like you and me! It is the communist dictators and unethical factories that are the culprits. The question is how to stop these evil parties from using "China being a developing country" as an excuse to increase the level of pollution to victimize Chinese and non-Chinese!
Saying that people trying to "paint China as the bad guy" only shows one's misunderstanding about China. Yesterday, someone on another thread correctly pointed out that the name "China" being used by many people was a dictatorship. But I am going one step further. China is not only a dictatorship. It is an oligopolistic dictatorship that either runs or colludes with unethical businesses.
Please do some research on the topic of "coal mine explosion in China." You see exactly the same picture! In 2005, the central government announced that it would close down 7000 illegal mines in China to stop coal miners from dying as a result of mine explosions. Guess what! Most of the illegal mines have always been KNOWN to be illegal by local government officials. The reason why these mines exist is either because they bribe local government officials or because they are run by local government officials.
Do some research on "Shanxi Child Slaves". The same problem. The gangs that abducted children from Henan and sold them to Shanxi were run by either the Communist Party officials or by some local gangs that paid bribe money to local officials.
As a joke, I would suggest if you don't tax the "unethical parties in China" (who do not represent "China"), you can nuke the Chinese Communist Party. A bit of exaggeration, but that is certainly a viable alternative solution!
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Sam Wells Posted 1:15 pm
21 Jun 2007
One of the lessons learned is that simply don't know how much CO2 pumps into the atmosphere because most often the estimates are done by remote contractors who deal in millions of tons of coal produced, oil imported, any natural gas, oil refined, and fuel burned for various combustion sources (commercial, motor vehicle, residential cooking and heating, and so forth). Excuse the expression, it is very crude at best and does not follow most global warming guidance as compiled by the EU and EPA as to data quality. The fact remains that we simply do not KNOW China very well.
One salient point is that the central government might not know all the energy supplies and demand and inputs simply because of various factors including lack of a unified computer permitting system and a vast network that can be descibed (for lack of a better expression) as the "gray market."
You have to be careful because if you got clearance and were invited to China for high level meetings, ou'd better not be talking about illegal bribery resulting in "X" percent in excess CO2 emissions. You would be on the next plane back to LA.
But many of the younger engineers and scientists in China are very well read and while they acknowledge they are in a heavy basic industry mode, they love their computers too. For example you could ask about gray market coal mining operations and these folks could list three bad explosions in the US and even more in Russia, one catastrophic. You dare not make a retort. Just don't go there.
What really gets their gall is when some consultant or agency in the Netherlands estmates their CO2 emissions for them without really knowing the country, the land, and the people. The Chinese want the tools and models to do that themselves. Yes, it could take a few years but even I had to admit, an increase of a measely 2% of CO2 emissions over what the US contributes does not mean that China emits more - it means they're close within an error bar of plus or minus 5 to 10 percent, given the uncertainty.
One should be very careful about how one uses emission inventory numbers even if they are cited by what seems to be a reputable media source (HAH). /sammie
Onward through the fog
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Christina Larson Posted 2:04 pm
21 Jun 2007
Sammie: So true. Even if the system is flawed, there are many Chinese officials sincerely trying to figure out how to do a better job, and quite eager to learn from American advisors. (I met folks in China who ran laps around my knowledge of our EPA's Toxic Release Inventory.) Many of the most progressive officials happen to be working in environmental bureaus, talking not only about emissions control but information disclosure (!). It's an uphill battle, with imperfect instruments and bureaucratic landmines, but there are reformers.
-- Christina
Christina Larson
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Rune Posted 2:41 pm
21 Jun 2007
Oh, to live in interesting times!
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noolympics Posted 4:19 pm
21 Jun 2007
The Special Administrative Region (SAR) government in Hong Kong has been blaming the two power generating companies for creating the smog in Hong Kong. However, it has been documented that the level of nitrogen dioxide produced as a result of power generation has been decreasing since 1997 as most of the factories have headed north.
http://www.freehk.org/images/power.jpg
Unfortunately, most environmental groups in Hong Kong seem to buy the government's explanation and give no pressure to the SAR government to take some real action to bargain with the Guangdong government. (You can imagine how badly the people in Mainland China are informed about air pollution in China!)
I have been fighting this battle alone in Hong Kong for two years now. I have created a (Chinese) website in Hong Kong discussing the extremely high correlation between wind direct and occurrence of smog. (http://www.freehk.org)
The air quality in Hong Kong is the worst in winter because of the northeasterly wind blown from China. It is especially horrible when the wind blows from the northwest (I believe it is from Fushan, an area for heavy industries).
My worry now is, from my subjective observation in the past two years, some powerplants in Guangdong try to reduce their pollutant emission levels in day time and raise their emssion levels at night time so that no one can see the smog!
My videos on youtube about the relation between the wind direction and smog:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK-q-k9XOsc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5wJTp6kYqo
I also found this video on youtube posted by a youtuber from Guam. Yes, the guy is complaining about pollutants from China affecting Guam!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEYnTAQ0Hq0
The situation is far worse than most westerners think! Very soon the entire west coast of the U.S. will be affected, not by carbon dioxide, but by nitrogen dioxide! You will see smog appear more and more frequently in LA!
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Christina Larson Posted 9:51 pm
21 Jun 2007
I met a woman who used to be in Hong Kong legislature who now heads nonprofit there that works on green issues: Christine Loh. You may have helpful information for each other?
http://www.civic-exchange.org/index.php?cat=43
Christina Larson
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Tan Copsey Posted 11:33 pm
21 Jun 2007
You can post in our bi-lingual forums and your post will be translated and read in Chinese. chinadialogue is the world's only fully bi-lingual website dedicated to China, climate change, and global environmental issues.
chinadialogue - The world talks to China: China talks to the world.
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Delay And Deny Posted 1:30 am
22 Jun 2007
Check out this "Solar City" (mostly hot water):
Got Sunshine? China's Solar-Powered City A Model For Urban Sustainability
http://www.greenoptions.com/2007/05/22/got_sunshine_china ...
Take for instance the example of Rizhao, a coastal city of nearly three million on the Shandong Peninsula in northern China. Almost every single building or flat surface is covered with solar panels! Most all are solar water heaters. In total, the city has over a half-million square meters of solar water heating panels, the equivalent of about 0.5 megawatts of electric water heaters!
John Bailo
You Read It Here First
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noolympics Posted 4:18 pm
22 Jun 2007
The reason I am saying this is, the Civic Exchange has join-forced with the University of Science and Technology (UST) to produce a report, saying that Hong Kong is responsible for over 50% of its own pollution.
What is ridiculous about the report is that instead of using some scientific approach, the professor (Dr. Alexis Lau) from the UST counted the number of days that Hong Kong is a major polluter on its own. The problem is, the wind blows from the south (the sea) in the summer so there there are about 200 days of clear sky in Hong Kong. This is already 66.7% of the number of days that China will not affect Hong Kong!
Some people are good at playing games with the "ignorant" public (in Hong Kong only 18% of high school students can earn a university degree!). I am afraid the Chinese Communist Party is trying to play exactly the same propaganda game that it has been playing in China for more than 50 years!
freehk.org | chinasick.blogspot.com | noolympics.blogspot.com
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