The news from NOAA is that all our dawdling on climate action this decade is having real impact on the atmosphere:
- Concentrations of CO2 jumped 2.4 ppm in 2007, taking us to 385 ppm (preindustrial levels hovered around 280 through 1850).
- That is an increase of 0.6 percent (or 19 billion tons). If we stay at that growth rate, we'll be at 465 ppm by 2050 -- and that assumes (improbably) that the various carbon sinks don't keep saturating (see here and here).
- Levels of methane (a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) rose last year for the first time since 1998, perhaps an early indication of thawing permafrost.
Why this recent jump in methane? NOAA says:
Rapidly growing industrialization in Asia and rising wetland emissions in the Arctic and tropics are the most likely causes of the recent methane increase, said scientist Ed Dlugokencky from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory.
I have previously noted the especially rapid warming in the same area as most of the Asian tundra.
"We're on the lookout for the first sign of a methane release from thawing Arctic permafrost," said Dlugokencky. "It's too soon to tell whether last year's spike in emissions includes the start of such a trend."
Permafrost, or permanently frozen ground, contains vast stores of carbon. Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic continues to warm and permafrost thaws, carbon could seep into the atmosphere in the form of methane, possibly fueling a cycle of carbon release and temperature rise.
The time to act is yesterday.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
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Sam Wells Posted 6:36 am
24 Apr 2008
Just so you know, scientists can find cities from satellites now using (1) light detection at night and (2) methane emissions, a product of combustion and leaking natural gas lines.
If there is some proof of permafrost releases of methane I'd love to see the reports and sources, as it seems conjectural to me (e.g., it is too soon to tell, as mentioned above).
As an add-on, Dr. Jeff Masters found that last month was the second hottest ever in a 128-year history. Most of Siberia was well above climo although the northern tier of America was cooler due to La Nina - except parts of Alaska were relatively warmer.
-sammie
Onward through the fog
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Sean Casten Posted 7:00 am
24 Apr 2008
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sunflower Posted 7:45 am
24 Apr 2008
Not the end, not yet.
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Tasermons Partner Posted 10:52 am
24 Apr 2008
If, even with the increase, we don't reach 450 ppm for the next few decades, that gives me much greater hope that we can reverse this trend before it reaches extremely catastrophic levels.
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LGT Posted 10:59 am
24 Apr 2008
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Sam Wells Posted 2:02 pm
24 Apr 2008
Onward through the fog
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amazingdrx Posted 2:44 pm
24 Apr 2008
It would be a titanic effort though. Getting the eqwuipment to the remote regions.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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hapa Posted 8:37 pm
24 Apr 2008
when do we set up camp in DC? the carbon market idea is terrifying.
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johnmcc793 Posted 12:33 am
25 Apr 2008
In fact, they represent a climate forcing potention equal to about 13 percent of the CO2 level.
2007 CO2 level is about 385 ppm; thus CO2 equalvents are comparable to a CO2 level of 412 ppm today.
A lot to think about.
John McCormick
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kmp Posted 1:29 am
25 Apr 2008
One bit was especially dramatic, IMO: one team of scientists went searching for evidence of melting permafrost and/or methane emissions. They found a huge area of bubbles being released ("it looks like the lake is boiling!". The gas being released apparently had a "foul stench, like rotten eggs" and they quickly collected five trash bags full of the gas for a flammability test. The bags made a gratifyingly big explosion, indicating (according to the show) at least 10% methane composition (more gas was collected for analysis back at a lab). The thing that made a shiver creep down my spine is that the young scientist (a glaciologist, I believe) seemed completely freaked out, like "the shit has hit the fan, people" and seemed to struggle to convey the seriousness of the finding without running around screaming "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
Anyway, the show is worth a look. But you might suffer a sleepness night or two - I have.
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Delay And Deny Posted 2:26 am
25 Apr 2008
I'm surprised Grist didn't mention Joe Romm's appearance on Nova this week -- he seems like a smart reasonable guy.
As far as "melting permafrost" increasing GHG and global warming...mmm...why is this never mentioned since the ice has been melting all along...
J. Bailo
Participant
Texeme.Construct()
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CAndieGreen Posted 4:31 am
25 Apr 2008
Manure management strategies can use the tons of methane produced by our industrial agriculture (namely dairy, swine and poultry)for energy production. Methane from landfills could also be sequestered for energy.
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kenao Posted 6:26 am
25 Apr 2008
http://www.commoncurrent.com/notes/2008/04/shell-oil-scen ...
of course, nobody denies that we'll keep using oil for the next decade at least... unless the exporting countries hoard it for their own grandkids, like with the basmati and jasmine rice!
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Robco1 Posted 8:05 am
25 Apr 2008
Is there new information on this?
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amazingdrx Posted 11:29 am
26 Apr 2008
Farm biogas digestion has the potential to effectively save 25 times the GHG that it emits when converted to electric power, by preventing manure run off. And it's a great backup power source for the renewable grid.
It will revive the farm economy too. And provide organic fertilizer that will cut farm costs and make organic farming profitable.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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amazingdrx Posted 11:38 am
26 Apr 2008
How to make farms the GHG saving renewable smart grid backup.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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