The news from NOAA is that all our dawdling on climate action this decade is having real impact on the atmosphere:
- Concentrations of CO2 jumped 2.4 ppm in 2007, taking us to 385 ppm (preindustrial levels hovered around 280 through 1850).
- That is an increase of 0.6 percent (or 19 billion tons). If we stay at that growth rate, we'll be at 465 ppm by 2050 -- and that assumes (improbably) that the various carbon sinks don't keep saturating (see here and here).
- Levels of methane (a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) rose last year for the first time since 1998, perhaps an early indication of thawing permafrost.
Why this recent jump in methane? NOAA says:
Rapidly growing industrialization in Asia and rising wetland emissions in the Arctic and tropics are the most likely causes of the recent methane increase, said scientist Ed Dlugokencky from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory.
I have previously noted the especially rapid warming in the same area as most of the Asian tundra.
"We're on the lookout for the first sign of a methane release from thawing Arctic permafrost," said Dlugokencky. "It's too soon to tell whether last year's spike in emissions includes the start of such a trend."
Permafrost, or permanently frozen ground, contains vast stores of carbon. Scientists are concerned that as the Arctic continues to warm and permafrost thaws, carbon could seep into the atmosphere in the form of methane, possibly fueling a cycle of carbon release and temperature rise.
The time to act is yesterday.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
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Comments View as Flat
Sam Wells Posted 6:36 am
24 Apr 2008
Methane
Great posting.
Just so you know, scientists can find cities from satellites now using (1) light detection at night and (2) methane emissions, a product of combustion and leaking natural gas lines.
If there is some proof of permafrost releases of methane I'd love to see the reports and sources, as it seems conjectural to me (e.g., it is too soon to tell, as mentioned above).
As an add-on, Dr. Jeff Masters found that last month was the second hottest ever in a 128-year history. Most of Siberia was well above climo although the northern tier of America was cooler due to La Nina - except parts of Alaska were relatively warmer.
-sammie
Onward through the fog
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Sean Casten Posted 7:00 am
24 Apr 2008
Holy sh*t.
A good friend of mine does GIS work in Alaska, and his colleagues up there have told him that that the melting permafrost is the gigantic problem that no one's talking about, which explodes once it starts to melt. I sure hope they're wrong, but this looks like the Brontosaurus in the coal mine.
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sunflower Posted 7:45 am
24 Apr 2008
Sunshine above the gloom
Some hydrate and permafrost thaw is in the pipeline.
Not the end, not yet.
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Tasermons Partner Posted 10:52 am
24 Apr 2008
465 by 2050?...
...I was under the impression that at current rates, we'd reach that number well before then?
If, even with the increase, we don't reach 450 ppm for the next few decades, that gives me much greater hope that we can reverse this trend before it reaches extremely catastrophic levels.
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LGT Posted 10:59 am
24 Apr 2008
2050?
Don't worry!
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Sam Wells Posted 2:02 pm
24 Apr 2008
A very strange question
Let's say I was concerned about methane releases from melting permafrost in the Arctic region. Well, could you mine the methane like a municipal landfill?
Onward through the fog
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amazingdrx Posted 2:44 pm
24 Apr 2008
Sure
With lateral drilling it should be possible. You could drill under the permafrost along the whole edge of the melt line. The pipe would need to have holes to accept the gas.
It would be a titanic effort though. Getting the eqwuipment to the remote regions.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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hapa Posted 8:37 pm
24 Apr 2008
so that means
if james hansen et al are right about 350 as target and 50 being the safe bet for what we can take out, assuming no further pace increase, we hit 400 in 2013 and 425 (their outside #) in 2023.
when do we set up camp in DC? the carbon market idea is terrifying.
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johnmcc793 Posted 12:33 am
25 Apr 2008
CO2 equivalents...so that means
We all make the mistake of focusing only on CO2 as if the methane, nitrous oxide, CFC 12, HCFC 22, perfluoromethane, sulfur hexafluoride, water vapor, etc. are not important.
In fact, they represent a climate forcing potention equal to about 13 percent of the CO2 level.
2007 CO2 level is about 385 ppm; thus CO2 equalvents are comparable to a CO2 level of 412 ppm today.
A lot to think about.
John McCormick
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kmp Posted 1:29 am
25 Apr 2008
Expedition Alaska
Did anyone see Expedition Alaska, on the Discovery Channel last week? Pretty fluffy, as 'global warming journalism' goes, but parts of it were truly scary. Seeing the massive amounts of meltwater streaming through a glacier, comparing pictures of glaciers in 1909 with the same exact spot today, having it take one team over 2 hours to find a single piece of intact sea ice; scary stuff that makes all the data & predictions all too real.
One bit was especially dramatic, IMO: one team of scientists went searching for evidence of melting permafrost and/or methane emissions. They found a huge area of bubbles being released ("it looks like the lake is boiling!". The gas being released apparently had a "foul stench, like rotten eggs" and they quickly collected five trash bags full of the gas for a flammability test. The bags made a gratifyingly big explosion, indicating (according to the show) at least 10% methane composition (more gas was collected for analysis back at a lab). The thing that made a shiver creep down my spine is that the young scientist (a glaciologist, I believe) seemed completely freaked out, like "the shit has hit the fan, people" and seemed to struggle to convey the seriousness of the finding without running around screaming "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!"
Anyway, the show is worth a look. But you might suffer a sleepness night or two - I have.
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WWAGD?! Posted 2:26 am
25 Apr 2008
Romm If You Want To
I'm surprised Grist didn't mention Joe Romm's appearance on Nova this week -- he seems like a smart reasonable guy.
As far as "melting permafrost" increasing GHG and global warming...mmm...why is this never mentioned since the ice has been melting all along...
J. Bailo Participant Texeme.Construct()
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CAndieGreen Posted 4:31 am
25 Apr 2008
Methane sequestering
If methane is worse than co2 why aren't we doing more to prevent the escape into the atmosphere?
Manure management strategies can use the tons of methane produced by our industrial agriculture (namely dairy, swine and poultry)for energy production. Methane from landfills could also be sequestered for energy.
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kenao Posted 6:26 am
25 Apr 2008
This must be what SHELL was warning us about
in their two Future Scenarios: "Scramble vs Blueprint"
http://www.commoncurrent.com/notes/2008/04/shell-oil-scen ...
of course, nobody denies that we'll keep using oil for the next decade at least... unless the exporting countries hoard it for their own grandkids, like with the basmati and jasmine rice!
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Robco1 Posted 8:05 am
25 Apr 2008
What about deep ocean Methane Hydrates?
I've been hearing about the discovery of massive quantities of methane hydrates found in deep ocean sediments. I seem to remember the figure of 3 trillion metric tons estimated under the ocean floor.
Is there new information on this?
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amazingdrx Posted 11:29 am
26 Apr 2008
Good question candie!
"...why aren't we doing more to prevent the escape into the atmosphere?"
Farm biogas digestion has the potential to effectively save 25 times the GHG that it emits when converted to electric power, by preventing manure run off. And it's a great backup power source for the renewable grid.
It will revive the farm economy too. And provide organic fertilizer that will cut farm costs and make organic farming profitable.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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amazingdrx Posted 11:38 am
26 Apr 2008
Ag/energy policy
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2008/4/13/ ...
How to make farms the GHG saving renewable smart grid backup.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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