The report hasn't even been released yet, but one of the big stories around this Friday's release by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the conservative edge to the final product, which does not fully account for the melting of the Greenland and/or Antarctic ice sheets.
The report is consensus-based, and as such carefully written and meticulously reviewed. The process is heavily bureaucratic, a maze of international political and scientific red tape, which is both its strength and weakness.
While the level of international cooperation attests to its conclusions, scientists have struggled with how to model variables like melting ice sheets. Taking into consideration the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is likely to move measurements of the sea level rise from inches to feet or meters within this century.
Uncertainties in the science need to be addressed with more research, certainly not the proposed cutback in funding for climate studies. And for as cautious as the IPCC report is in its creation, it needs to consider and calculate the potential consequences of climate change even more cautiously.
That means public awareness needs to be raised about two things: the missing pieces, and future IPCC reports that include models of disintegrating ice sheets.
Cross-posted from Climate Progress.
Comments
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tico89 Posted 2:20 pm
31 Jan 2007
However, this is the price we have to pay. The existence of such a report, the cooperation that took place with this panel, and the fact that something so 'official-sounding' at least talks about sea level rises is something to be happy about. People may enjoy picking holes in arguments they do not always understand, and saying frankly "this is too vague", but few will stand idly by and watch their favourite beaches and tropical islands disappear. And we need people to at least appreciate, if not understand, what is going on -- very, very quickly.
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amazingdrx Posted 3:04 pm
31 Jan 2007
Now it will be like claiming increased hurricane intensity is directly related to global climate change.
Sorry no proof. 50 years after all the ice is melted, then there maybe proof.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Mike B Posted 7:20 pm
31 Jan 2007
I wish you could
stop global warming
'cause the poles
are melting
and I've only started
on growing
Why must the eedolts
keep BURNING
things for power
When the wind and sun are free
as the waves of the deep
blue sea
and I'm on my knees
wondering
Why Lord aren't you in charge
'stead of all them
fools who say
It isn't happening
Not here
Relax Joe Six
Have another beer
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A Siegel Posted 11:28 pm
31 Jan 2007
"Anything that relies so heavily on consensus and agreement between groups and governments will in the end have huge amounts of important flaws and will probably, due to the pressures of bureaucracy, generally emphasi[z]e the uncertainties in the science."
Yet, the 4th IPCC is already being attacked (aggressively) by Global Warming Deniers as a bunch of fearmongering. I just responded to a poster over at Ecotality who was attacking the "Chicken Litte Global Warming fear mongering" and asserting that Global Warming is just a tool to enslave the masses by an elite. ... And, sadly, there is still resonance for this in the United States (most notably in the OVP and Oval Office (in order of importance?)).
Yet, this report is consensus ... and a consensus combining scientists and bureaucrats from all over the world. Anyone who has sat around a conference table with just a few people trying to iron out the words even in a cover letter knows how horrible a process that is. But, again, too many will not be able to conceive of this report in that vein.
This is a struggle, to get out the understanding that this is base report that, almost certainly, is understating the severity of the challenges facing us (US and the world) today and into the indefinite future, rather than 'chicken little fear mongering'.
Now, the public in the United States is shifting ... yet, only 47% percent of Americans (by latest polling) believe that it has been conclusively shown that human activity is causing Global Warming. And, the vast majority believe that taking steps to deal with Global Warming will hurt the economy/them even though we can go very far with a 'no regrets' strategy while improving real quality of life and strengthening the economy. But of these incorrect impressions need to be shifted --- as quickly as can be.
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dotcommodity Posted 1:24 pm
01 Feb 2007
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/listorganizations.php
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Delay And Deny Posted 1:55 am
02 Feb 2007
The IPCC report is a great victory...for cheese eating, espresso swilling Eurocrats.
Now they can have tons more conferences about Global Heating.
And Al Gore can win an Oscar AND a Nobel Peace Prize.
See...everyone's happy.
Now if they would all just shut up.
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