NCDC August report: The end of global warming?

Climate-wise, August was a pretty dull month 9

Last month, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center reported, "the globally-averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was ... the ninth warmest for the January-July year-to-date period" (out of 129 years), as I reported here. The first seven months of the year were +0.45°C (+0.81°F) warmer than the 1961-1990 average.

Now here's the shocking news. The NCDC just reported, "the globally-averaged combined land and sea surface temperature ... ranked as the ninth warmest ... January-August year-to-date period." The first eight months of the year were ... wait for it ... +0.45°C (+0.81°F) warmer than the 1961-1990 average.

So you see, there has been essentially no warming whatsoever from July to August, which is probably because August tied with 1995 as the tenth warmest on record.

Bottom line: Other than a record decline in Arctic sea ice, August was a pretty dull month climate-wise -- heck, "El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were in a neutral phase during August" -- and I was desperately trying to spice it up with a sexy headline that might at least temporarily excite my few remaining denier readers.

Since interest in the campaign seems to have brought in a bunch of new readers in the last few weeks, let me repeat the key points from my last post on the monthly data.

While the monthly data doesn't tell us much about the climate, the peer-reviewed scientific literature has a couple of interesting forecasts for the next decade:

  • The "coming decade" (2010 to 2020) is poised to be the warmest on record, globally.
  • The coming decade is poised to see faster temperature rise than any decade since the authors' calculations began in 1960.
  • The fast warming would likely begin early in the next decade -- similar to the 2007 prediction by the Hadley Center in Science.

That is why they call it global warming.

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Joseph Romm is the editor of Climate Progress and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

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  1. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 12:02 pm
    18 Sep 2008

    The Van Bailo BeltIn a recent thread (ok, diatribe) on Grist, I have detailed how the CO2 layer can form a belt of trapped infrared rays which can act both as a magnet and bumper.   As it setttles into various attractors, I can be cooling, or heating the globe.
    I have named this Co2 band The Van Bail Belt, after the great scientist Van Wilder.

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  2. wreckenhavoc Posted 4:54 pm
    18 Sep 2008

    How exactly is the sky is falling?Wow. It sounded like things were getting better, since there was no warming, but then it sounded like you said yes, but things are going to get much worse, really quickly.  SO, is that like saying that we know the sky is falling, and because we didn't get hit on the head with a piece of sky today, we are sure we will get hit by two pieces of the sky, or maybe even three pieces of sky  tomorrow?  Is it really going to get much worse before it gets better? (Because it seems like it is getting better.)

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  3. Pangolin's avatar

    Pangolin Posted 6:17 pm
    18 Sep 2008

    Upper atmosphere cooling and contractingI thought all the deniers knew that? The upper atmosphere cools due to water vapor transport as a result of global warming and cooler gas occupies less volume hence less altitude.
    All discussed in excruciating detail here on RealClimate.

    Put the Carbon Back

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  4. MAD MAC Posted 6:21 pm
    18 Sep 2008

    So clearly what needs to be done is............ modify the troposphere in order to block more of the suns energy from reaching the earth's surface and warming it. That should solve the problem.

    Victory in Pattani

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  5. Bob Wallace Posted 1:52 am
    19 Sep 2008

    Solve this problem?Perhaps.
    And cause what other problems?
    Very complex system that you're armchairing....
    Let's see.  Block some sunlight.  Bring back a period of global dimming.  Cause a significant decrease in crop growth when the world's food supply is already stressed.
    And block some sunlight.  Decrease the output from solar PV and thermal.  Increase the need to burn coal.
    Wonder what would happen to wind/wind energy since wind is solar energy driven?
    Wonder what would happen when the stuff you pump into the troposphere starts falling back to Earth?
    Wonder how much CO2 would get created during the process of getting it up there to start with?
    How about we just get busy and build some more wind and solar generation and shut down some coal?

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  6. MAD MAC Posted 2:13 am
    19 Sep 2008

    Because we can't."How about we just get busy and build some more wind and solar generation and shut down some coal?"
    This is a global problem and the global community can't do anything in concert - ever. Never has happened, never will. Even if the US and Europeans manage to "build some more wind and solar generation capacity and shut down coal, that still leaves most of the world......... China alone can compensate for whatever we stop generating.
    So, reducing CO2 output just isn't going to happen. It's not realistic. So you'd better find a way to either remove the CO2, or deal with the impact. Because you are not going to cut global emissions.

    Victory in Pattani

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  7. Duggles Posted 2:45 am
    19 Sep 2008

    I suspect......that if some country were to unilaterally start putting sun-blocking chemicals into the atmosphere in large amounts (enough to accomplish the goal of anthropogenic global dimming), it would probably start a war because everyone else wouldn't want the corresponding decrease in agricultural productivity.
    So the solution from The Matrix is out.

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  8. Bob Wallace Posted 7:40 am
    19 Sep 2008

    Because you are not going to cut global emissions.Just because the US has an administration that isn't dealing with CO2 doesn't mean that the rest of the world also has its head firmly planted in the sand.  (Or somewhere equally as dark.)

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  9. MAD MAC Posted 3:28 pm
    19 Sep 2008

    CO2 cuts are NOT going to happenBob pull your head out of the sand (or somewhere else as dark) and look around. The Chinese are building more Coal Power plants every week!!!! Maybe you missed it. They are buying cars up from the global market out the gazoo. What they are not doing is investing in renewables even close to the investment in non-renewables, except to produce them to sell them to Europe.
    Ditto India.
    These two countries are HUGE. They alone can more than off set anything we or the Europeans do. And they are not going to change any policies in this domain anytime soon. They are just beginning to get their economic feet on the ground.
    So we had better find a way to deal with the increased CO2 in the atmosphere, either by minimizing the impacts or by washing it out in some sort of sink, because this problem IS NOT going to be solved by cuts. That is an unrealistic thought process.

    Victory in Pattani

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