This weekend, the AP released the following story:
Global warming -- through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding -- is expected to cause oceans to rise by one meter, or about 39 inches. It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation.
Wow! The first amazing thing is the confidence with which AP makes a statement beyond the IPCC's scientific consensus. This is what most of the experts I spoke to for my book said, and I'm glad to see it in print (kudos to AP reporter Seth Borenstein):
Few of the more than two dozen climate experts interviewed disagree with the one-meter projection. Some believe it could happen in 50 years, others say 100, and still others say 150.
The second amazing thing is this quote:
Even John Christy at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, a scientist often quoted by global warming skeptics, said he figures the seas will rise at least 16 inches by the end of the century. But he tells people to prepare for a rise of about three feet just in case.
Looks like Christy needs to straighten Lomborg out.
The third amazing thing -- and the one I (and I think Hansen) would take some exception with -- is, "It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases." Still, Borenstein gets a stunning quote here:
"We're going to get a meter and there's nothing we can do about it," said University of Victoria climatologist Andrew Weaver, a lead author of the February report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Paris. "It's going to happen no matter what -- the question is when."
My point -- and I think Hansen's point -- is that the "when" (i.e. the rate of change) matters a lot! One meter by mid-century would be an unmitigated catastrophe. Sea level rise would have to average 9 inches a decade from now to 2050, implying seas rising over a foot a decade by then -- which could continue for centuries. Who could adapt to that?
Strong actions to limit further emissions starting today -- what Hansen calls the alternative scenario -- can limit total warming from preindustrial levels to about 2°C, which should keep sea level rise below one meter per century. That's a disaster, but a slow-moving one, leaving time for some adaptation. And if we were lucky, the rate might be well below a meter per century.
We have only a few years to get on the alternative path, or the one meter of sea level rise is almost sure to come this century.
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Comments
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iprefertherain Posted 3:13 am
24 Sep 2007
As long as there are slaughterhouses, there will be battlefields. -Leo Tolstoy
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iprefertherain Posted 3:14 am
24 Sep 2007
Big time. I think its time for you all to admit that.
As long as there are slaughterhouses, there will be battlefields. -Leo Tolstoy
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iprefertherain Posted 3:31 am
24 Sep 2007
Personally, that's why I think my generation (gen Y)likes PETA so much because so many of us recognize that had people taken the radical stance they had more often, we would NOT BE IN THIS SITUATION.
I really place a lot of responsibility on the personal and political choices of the previous generation.
I give them respect for their accomlishments, but I place the blame on them as well. They deserve both.
Unfortunately, their gains may not have been radical enough.
As long as there are slaughterhouses, there will be battlefields. -Leo Tolstoy
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Delay And Deny Posted 4:03 am
24 Sep 2007
I'd hate for AGW'er to be my doctor:
"is expected"
"Few of the more than two dozen"
You guys can't even get consensus in your own ranks.
Here's the Bailo Model Forecasts:
Radically sinking sea levels
Take that to the bank -- CHI-POO-PEE !!! (nod to Vern Fonk Auto Insurance)
John Bailo
Sutext:
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Pangolin Posted 5:49 am
25 Sep 2007
We truly do not understand how positive feedback loops can cause rapid climate change. What is clear from ice core and sediment data is that climate regimes can change in as little as a decade. How that happens is not clear but it is clear that is has happened in the past.
The place where you live can switch from rainy to dry or vice-versa in as little as ten years. If that can happen your seaside town could become flooded in the same period.
Put the Carbon Back
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iprefertherain Posted 12:34 pm
06 Oct 2007
The UN World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987 Stephen H. Schneider, Global Warming, p. 163.
As long as there are slaughterhouses, there will be battlefields. -Leo Tolstoy
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