Sounds like they've called the Iowa caucuses. Huckabee's the huge winner on the R side, with Romney an anemic second. Obama got a very narrow win on the D side (35%), with Edwards and Clinton effectively tied for second with 31%.
Interestinger and interestinger.
UPDATE: OK, the final looks like 37% Obama, 30% Edwards, and 29% Clinton. Clinton only won a single age group: 65+ Obama overwhelmingly won the under-30 crowd, which turned out in record numbers. The total turnout for the Dem side caucuses was something like 230,000, more than twice the previous record. On the R side it was something like 108,000. It's clear where the enthusiasm is this year.
Of course, it's always worth mentioning how absurd it is that our candidates are effectively chosen for us by a tiny number of grossly unrepresentative white, rural voters in Iowa, NH, and SC.
UPDATE: Doddmentum!
Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1781 of 1781
UPDATE: Worth noting: Both tonight's winners support a carbon cap-and-trade system. I'm pretty sure that's what shaped tonight's Iowa results. Ahem.
UPDATE: Dodd and Biden are both out. Gravel's staying in. No word from Kucinich.
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Comments
View as Flat
bryankwalton Posted 1:20 pm
03 Jan 2008
Obama: 38%
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 29%
Richardson: 2%
Biden: 1%
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Tasermons Partner Posted 2:03 pm
03 Jan 2008
Kinda disappointin' returns for McCain though, which may not be good 'cause he's essentially the only one of the Republicans who'll take climate change seriously.
But it's just one state, and there's plenty more to come. The game is far from over.
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Delay And Deny Posted 2:05 pm
03 Jan 2008
It's a huge loss for Clinton, because now Democrats who really want to win will feel that it's "safe" to vote for Obama.
This is the guy they really want and the floodgates will open.
Edwards and Hillary will be washed out to sea...
My Log
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Jason D Scorse Posted 2:14 pm
03 Jan 2008
I teach environmental economics and blog at http://www.voicesofreason.info.
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David Roberts Posted 2:23 pm
03 Jan 2008
grist.org
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Tasermons Partner Posted 2:31 pm
03 Jan 2008
Then again, the current guy ran on much the same down-homw christian conservative platform, and it seemed to have worked for him.
Regardless, we just haveta hope that McCain does better in the other states.
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Tasermons Partner Posted 2:34 pm
03 Jan 2008
It's the elctorals that'll decide the eventual winner, not so-much the populous.
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amazingdrx Posted 3:09 pm
03 Jan 2008
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Tasermons Partner Posted 3:23 pm
03 Jan 2008
Though Iowa is a rural state and there are people makin' quite a profit there off the ethanol craze, so ethanol producers and certain farmers may have taken at least some notice on his stance in that regard.
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caniscandida Posted 8:14 pm
03 Jan 2008
And presumably those headlines will mark this as a great moment of celebration. And rightly so. Even though Barack Obama is "African-American" in a far different way than the great majority of Americans in that category, nevertheless he is undeniably a black man (what we in the US quaintly call "black"), with an honest-to-God black African father. So, that he should have beat by eight points his closest competitors, two powerful and appealing white opponents, in an overwhelmingly white state, is huge news, much bigger really than the appointments of Supreme Court Justices and Secretaries of State.
Of course, there will be agonizing over whether any more "authentic" African-American candidate in the manner of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton could even now have got as far as the cafe'-au-lait Obama. Well, perhaps not; and that is an interesting point. But then again, we do not really know if it is true, because Oprah decided against running. : )
As for Clinton, third place is indeed a blow, but I strongly doubt we have heard the last from Hillaryland. Her pattern as a campaigner has been, if she blunders, she figures out everything about the nature of the mistake, and never makes it again. Plus, Bill is by all accounts engaged full-steam.
I would like to think her third-place finish is in part due to her choosing that CAFO queen, Joy Philippi, to represent her in the farm states.
As for my man John Edwards, I do not see where he goes from here, after trailing the leader by eight points. He sent out a message, claiming victory over at least one well-moneyed rival, the "Clinton machine"; but the message was briefer than usual, and had a rather stunned tone. Since around Christmas Day, we NYC supporters of Edwards have received lots of e-mails from those trying to organize volunteers to go up to New Hampshire to campaign. And for all I know, there are a large number of volunteers, and they are already on their way. But that looks futile, frankly; and then, even South Carolina, where Edwards was born, does not look favorable.
As for Dennis Kucinich, he will be speaking this evening with Bill Moyers, the other guest being Ron Paul, which ought to be interesting. One wonders if we will ever know if Kucinich's request to his Iowa supporters, to make Obama their second choice, helped Obama.
As for Bill Richardson, he seems to be running a pretty loosey-goosey campaign, which left some Iowans unimpressed. Is he really hoping he can gain momentum in Nevada?
Chickens are our cousins! So are fish! So are other sentient animals! Let us learn to be kind.
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amazingdrx Posted 8:29 pm
03 Jan 2008
Ethanol, the big money effect in Iowa.
Clinton haters crossing over to the democratic caucus to boost Obama. The still very racist south, where Rove style vote rigging is also rampant, will more easily defeat Obama in the general election than Hillary.
And Obama represents change. A very vague concept, but it amounts to the bush and clinton families running the country for too long. And both identified with bad times. Both the war and the BJ leaving a bad taste on the political palate.
Four factors that helped Obama.
But do younger women vote in the general election in signifigant numbers? Nope. The caucus is different, it relies on more politically committed people, a tiny pecentage of the population as a whole.
Relying on the youth vote is a fools paradise. Mainly people over 45 vote, under that age voters have a very small effect.
Ethanol won't be a plus in the general election either.
The change vote (anybody but a clinton or a bush)was addentuated in Iowa as well. Those younger, politically committed, but politically unsophisticated caucus participants don't reflect votes in the general election.
The big issue for those who vote is clearly health care. Baby boomers without health insurance or health uinsurance that is far too expensive with 5000 dollar deductible.
Obama is in the pocket of agribizz ethanol and big health insurance/hospital corp interests. That shows a lack of experience in dealing with corporate lobbying power. There goes the change vote.
His main advantage on the change front? He wasn't in the senate for the Iraq war votes. So he can claim now that he was always against the war.
Hillary did not take her defeat well. It left her looking unpresendential. But Obama did not look presidential in his win either. He didn't project the confidence of a winner.
In the end sexual politics might just swing to Hillary. Disenfranchised women voting their own best interests.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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caniscandida Posted 8:41 pm
03 Jan 2008
Chickens are our cousins! So are fish! So are other sentient animals! Let us learn to be kind.
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amazingdrx Posted 8:54 pm
03 Jan 2008
That would defeat their evil, rovian purpose, mwhahaha.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Green Granny Posted 12:03 am
04 Jan 2008
Hillary's self-proclaimed "experience" may well be a bigger liability than her gender. She has lots of experience with the same-old-same-old ugly political scene of back room secret handshakes with PACs and businessmen. And she seems to think that's how it must be -- Ms. Philippi and the last month or so of negative campaign ads are just the latest examples of Hillary's mindset. She thinks big business decides elections and a very few voters. I hope this is the year voters take back the elections. I expect record participation levels in the primaries and general election. And I expect we will see record number of 20-somethings voting too.
Relying on our youth may be foolish -- but they may surprise you. Voter apathy is more about pathetic choices than laziness. If your choice is between two more-or-less-equal "evils", why bother. I cannot remember a more inspiring candidate than Obama since JFK. And I hear a lot of 40-plus somethings talking about him too.
Remember, many of the "over 45" crowd grew up AFTER the Civil Rights Movement. And many of the 60 somethings participated in it or were changed by it. Old people are not necessarily opposed to change nor are they racisit/genderist.
Sadly, if Hillary fails to be nominated, many will say its because of gender rather than her Senate voting record, proposed policies (like mandatory health insurance paid for by individuals whether they want or can afford it), the company she keeps, the cronies she appoints, how she financed her campaign, and her "political strategies". If Obama is nominated, the color of his skin will get far more attention than it deserves. Focus instead on his ideas. Focus on his abilities. Does it really matter what color his skin is (or what size shoe he wears or what his Astrological sign is or . . .)?
If nothing else, I am personally impressed that Obama is financing his campaign without money from PACs. I am personally impressed that he is campaigning and thinking outside the box and making it work. I am pleased to see a candidate who is not a member of the "old boys club". Hillary may have big ovaries, but she's still a "good ole boy".
"We must be the change we wish to see in the world." -- Mahatma Ghandi
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Erik Hoffner Posted 12:17 am
04 Jan 2008
He won't be welcomed back in Mass, except by the state's anemic Republican party.
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