The connection 3

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1. 

   jre Posted 8:07 am
   27 Sep 2006

   Hurricanes and incompetenceAll true.  And the cautionary note about not promising to prevent chaotic, violent events is well-placed.  It's also worth noting that people and agencies may help or hurt the problem, sometimes simultaneously.  As the late Marc Reisner pointed out years before Katrina, coastal erosion in the Gulf was the biggest environmental story of the late 20th century to receive practically no notice.  The Army Corps of Engineers, after having created the heroically impressive channelization that stopped the silt and caused the erosion, was then chartered in the SELA program with mitigating its effects.  And that effort had stalled by the time of Katrina because its resources were being drained away to support -- you guessed it -- the recent unpleasantness in Iraq.

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2. 

   shefftim Posted 2:59 am
   28 Sep 2006

   Focusing on hurricanes could be counter productiveKatrina was only Force 3 when it struck New Orleans; what did it for that city was that it took the full force head on. Up to then it'd been lucky, hurricanes had gone close, but not too close. The other factor that made a big difference was the weaknesses of the defences. Engineers had been saying for years that they needed to be strengthened.
   
   There are also many other factors at play with hurricanes other than sea temperatures.
   
   Having cried out how much worse they've become, this year's season has been quiet; largely due to clouds of African dust over the Atlantic which suppresses hurricanes forming. In fact if N. Africa becomes dryer then there may be more dust in the atmosphere and quieter hurricane seasons in the Atlantic.
   
   Next year is likely to be quiet hurricane wise as well, as an El Nino event is happening and El Nino years tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
   
   The best estimate of `intensity' growth I've seen was in New Scientist (UK) (reviewing the different papers) that estimated that they may have become 10% stronger. And 10% of Force 3 means what exactly? Winds 13mph faster. 10% more rain?
   
   Does that extra 10% mean that New Orleans was more badly damaged than it otherwise would have been? No, not much more, if at all. The levees were the weak point, once they went the city flooded.
   
   Finally, I still don't see a good correlation between warmer water and hurricane strength. We know that sea temperatures have to reach 26.5 degrees C for hurricanes to form. But I still don't see a relationship between, say 27 degrees = Force 3, while 28 degrees = force 4 and so on, which some people seem to think. If the water's warmer for longer, then sure, the season gets longer; but I don't see a clear cut `the warmer the water, the stronger the hurricane' linkage.
   
   Focusing on Hurricanes could be counter-productive when arguing that people should take the greenhouse gas issue seriously. There are much better examples that warming is taking place (the Arctic) and winning the argument that the warming is due to greenhouse gasses, not `natural' causes, has to take centre stage.

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3. 

   usandthem Posted 10:06 pm
   28 Sep 2006

   People and hurricanesI agree with the first two postings.I would also like to add another unpleasant aside to the hurricane problem to agree with ire at the same time. There are too,say that again,too many people on this planet.We are spreading out into all kinds of places that we should not be moving into,such as flood plains,wet lands,foothills,and even mountains.In the process we,the people,are changing these areas and nature will exact retribution,because natural law will trump human law whenever and where ever it chooses.We might be the dominant life form,but we don't have control of everything,thank god. People don't and probably won't have fewer babies so I expect things in general to get worse.Things like more wars for land,water,food,and of course oil.But we will keep on having more kids and they in turn will have less of everything and still want more.
   
    And poor Africa will get less and less.Enough for now.
   
   
   
   Why not ask why!?

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