Global warming will reduce U.S. hurricane landfall, says controversial new research 9

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1. 

   inkabinkaboo182 Posted 3:06 am
   23 Jan 2008

   So...It looks like the jury's still out, and people STILL shouldn't be using hurricanes as an example of why to prevent/ not act on global warming.  Nothing's really changed, then.

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2. 

   wiscidea Posted 3:41 am
   23 Jan 2008

   Easy Matter To SettleAsk someone who's profit margin depends upon accurately determining how climate change will affect hurrican intensity and distribution...
   What are insurance companies up to these days?

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3. 

   Matt Posted 3:49 am
   23 Jan 2008

   2007?Does this report say anything about the actual number of Atlantic hurricanes or just ones going to hit the US?
   I was at pains to explain to my students this semester that the US is not the whole world and even if we didn't get hit by any big named storms, other countries fronting the Atlantic (Mexico, anyone?) got more than their fair share.

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4. 

   catman Posted 7:39 am
   23 Jan 2008

   Who's watching?Climate change is about meteorological extremes of ALL types.  Climate is average weather and as averages are changed, extreme events signal those changes.  Surely someone, somewhere is keeping track of all these extreme events everywhere and noticing the trends.  Those are the statistics we should be watching.

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5. 

   Boyscientist Posted 2:31 am
   24 Jan 2008

   Weak but robust trend downward"The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, a reliable measure of hurricanes over the long term," the report found.
   I can accept the idea that landfalling hurricanes are a reliable measure (over a long enough period) even though some critics refute that claim.
   I'm a little unclear on "weak but robust trend". Perhaps "weak but consistent" would have been better, unless it's not that consistent.
   Why again did IPCC reject use of this data?
   
   

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6. 

   lmoore Posted 5:01 am
   24 Jan 2008

   some details on the studyThe authors don't say the number of storms hitting the U.S. will go up.
   Instead, they concluded that future trends would depend on the spatial distribution of warming, particularly what happens in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans.  That's because warming in these various basins affects "wind shear", which can inhibit storm development. Climatologists at the RealClimate blog have pointed out that wind shear varies from year to year, and that in low-shear conditions (for example during La Nina), the warm water will be waiting to fuel nasty storms.  
   For a more detailed summary of this paper, and others, please visit Environmental Defense's website about hurricanes and global warming.  (The current paper is by Wang and Lee, at the bottom of the page.)
   Lisa Moore
   
   Environmental Defense
   
   

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7. 

   lmoore Posted 5:07 am
   24 Jan 2008

   sheesh, correctionSorry: The authors didn't say the number of storms would go down, either.
   In classic scientific precision, "it depends".

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8. 

   wiscidea Posted 5:20 am
   24 Jan 2008

   lighteningThere was an interesting blurb in Discover Magazine... scientists found a link bewteen the amount of lightening over east Africa and the number hurricanes that form in the Atlantic. Lightening -- or what causes lightening -- creates atmospheric waves in, I think, the upper troposphere. The waves travel west and eventually contribute to the formation of hurricanes. Intensity depends on energy available where they form. Anyway, will more cold and warm air be colliding over Ethiopia? Does this cause more lightening? If so, more Atlantic hurricanes.

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9. 

   Vikingsson Posted 8:37 am
   25 Jan 2008

   How could any unatural change be good?Honestly, if mankind now has the power to alter nature in such a fashion I'm worried no matter who it benefits and who it doesn't.  It just ain't right and can't be a good thing on balance.
   
   And why do I read any predictions, let's just do the right thing and stop worrying about who will profit and who will die.

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