Gassing up the atmosphere

Global carbon emissions jumped 3 percent in 2007 1

The Global Carbon Project released its "Carbon Budget 2007" [PDF] today. The report shows a continuation of the grossly unsustainable growth rate in CO2 emissions since 2000, which is nearly four times the growth rate of the 1990s:

gcp1a.jpg

As reported by AP:

... it was large increases in China, India and other developing countries that spurred the growth of carbon dioxide pollution [3%] to a record high of 9.34 billion tons of carbon (8.47 billion metric tons) ...

Scientists were surprised and dismayed because the increase "exceeds the most dire outlook for emissions from burning coal and oil and related activities" projected by the IPCC and because the increase occurred despite rising fossil fuel prices:

"Things are happening very, very fast," said Corinne Le Quere, professor of environmental sciences at the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey. "It's scary."

Gregg Marland, a senior staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, said he was surprised at the results because he thought world emissions would drop because of the economic downturn. That didn't happen.

Accelerating global carbon dioxide emissions inevitably translates into accelerating carbon dioxide concentrations. This is especially true because the carbon sinks are saturating:

Meanwhile, forests and oceans, which suck up carbon dioxide, are doing so at lower rates than in the 20th century, scientists said. If those trends continue, it puts the world on track for the highest predicted rises in temperature and sea level ...

Nature can't keep up with the carbon dioxide from man ... [F]rom 1955 to 2000, the forests and oceans absorbed about 57 percent of the excess carbon dioxide, but now it's 54 percent.

gcp2.jpg

The time to act is yesterday.

This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Joseph Romm is the editor of Climate Progress and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

Advertisement
Advertisement
  1. sindark's avatar

    sindark Posted 9:20 am
    26 Sep 2008

    Needs to change from rising to fallingThis is highly disturbing. Keeping temperatures from increasing by more than 2°C requires the deep and rapid reduction of global emissions, so as to achieve stabilization at a relatively low concentration of greenhouse gasses. Using IPCC models, it can be estimated that the chances of avoiding a rise of over 2°C if atmospheric concentrations stabilize at 550 ppm are 15%. Even with stabilization at 450 ppm, the chances are only 50%. Stabilizing at 450 ppm would require that global emissions peak by 2010 and fall by 7% per year thereafter, falling to 70% below 2005 values by 2050. Stabilization scenarios with a lower probability of exceeding the 2°C require even more rapid cuts. The climatic effect of emissions reductions is the product of both their depth and their duration; delaying the timing of emissions reductions significantly increases the depth they must have, in order to produce the same climatic outcome.

    a sibilant intake of breath

Add a Comment

You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.

Hello, Visitor!    Why not register?

Advertisement