A stitch in time saves nine

EPA chief stumbles over need to prepare for global warming 4

In one of her first interviews with the national press since being named to office, Lisa Jackson, the new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, started well in her defense of the need for government action to regulate the emission of greenhouse gases. She pointed out to National Public Radio that corporate lobbyists have a long history of melodramatizing the costs of government action to reduce air pollution, water pollution, acid rain, and CFC emissions. 

If you look at the history of environmental laws in this country, big ones—because climate-change law, energy law would be big new legislation—every time that’s ever been attempted, the lobbyists out there say, “Oh, that will shut down the American economy, every last one of you will lose your job.” It’s always these hugely overblown doomsday scenarios that overlook the important missing ingredient, which is American ingenuity, American innovation, and the fact that you can indeed build an economy around a move to green energy.Michele Norris

But as the interview progressed, and NPR’s Michele Norris pressed Jackson about the potential cost of regulating greenhouse gas emissions, Jackson moved to issuing a weak call for legislation from Congress. She claimed, improbably, that “resistance” to such new laws in Congress was “too strong” a word, despite admitting that opposition was regionally based. She lauded “the great environmental laws we have in this country,” and wistfully said that “it would be lovely to have Congress add one more to the list.”

Her idealism is admirable, but misplaced. She failed to make the common sense argument most likely to move ordinary folks, which is simply that climate change is coming, whether we like it or not, and if we fail to prepare, we will end up spending far more than if we act now.

In the words of The Stern Review:

The evidence shows that ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth.  Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.  And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.  Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term, and it can be done in a way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries. The earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be.

Or, as your grandmother might say, a stitch in time saves nine.

 

 

Advertisement
Advertisement
  1. oracle2world Posted 9:10 pm
    02 May 2009

    Nice article, and I admire Lisa Jackson.To cut to the chase, I haven't heard anyone on either side of the global warming debate say CO2 levels are going down in the future.  Whether you think mankind is entirely responsible, whether CO2 leads, lags, or is lockstep with temperature, or even the sunspot/Little Ice Age types who predict global cooling in the coming years.  No one says CO2 levels are going down in the future.So the end result of any CO2 regulation in the US (aka cap and trade) will be higher taxes, maybe a LOT higher, CO2 going up with all its attendant effects, and China and India spewing CO2 like there is no tomorrow.If Lisa Jackson is a bit cautious, and rightfully passes the buck to Congress, it is because cap and trade just isn't going to happen.  Climate is always changing, and getting colder is a lot more frightening than getting warmer.  As it stands, folks already experience temperature changes of 100 F in a year and daily changes of 40 F.  The human race is so adaptable it has people living in Antarctica and outer space.  So asking voters to pay higher taxes for colder temperatures because of something or another that will play out way after their death, is a non-starter.A flu pandemic, total nuclear war, mega-tsunamis, a big meteor strike, New Madrid level earthquake, etc. are all more immediate.  I love it when an economist says the present value of preventing something bad a hundred years hence is about zilch.  But we should still spend lots of money now.  This is the classic Asch psych experiment playing out in the real world.  The economist knows which line is longer on the note card, and because of coercion says it really is shorter.  
  2. Christopher S. Johnson's avatar

    Christopher S. Johnson Posted 4:15 pm
    03 May 2009

    Oracle,

    I think you are misinformed on multiple fronts. I'll be kind and assume it is an innocent mistake and not sent here to spread misinformation for readers.

    Instead of nitpicking, line by line, let me just clarify two over arching issues you are in error about:1.) CO2 increases may have a lag, and indeed cannot go DOWN from present levels for much more than a thousand years. That's the famous "clogged bathtub effect" reported last year in both a NOAA paper and the Monaco Declaration on Ocean Acidification. But the INCREASE can definitely be stopped. Who are you to negate the possibilities of Copenhagen and our own National legislation before they have a chance? You have no idea what you're talking about. Your negative prediction based on nothing but cynicism is unwelcome.2.) Yes humans, and other species (remember them?) adapt. But the success of that ALWAYS depends on the SPEED of change. Right now we are near 7 billion people. those 7 billion require a certain amount of "relatively normal" type land and climate to grow enough food and harvest enough fresh water. OTHER conditions will not likely support that population. And you certainly cannot compare daily weather swings to large-scale global average temp changes. Your simplistic reasoning on this is dangerous.And finally, it has been responsibly estimated now that a COMPLETE change to non fossil fuels for humanity, within a quick amount of time, would only costs 3% of global GDP. Tell me, how bad would that hurt your financial interests vs. catastrophic global warming?
    1. oracle2world Posted 9:59 pm
      03 May 2009

      Okay Mr. Johnson, here goes.If we went nuclear and ditched fossil fuels, it would have wide support.  Energy independence and clean energy?  Everyone is for that.  And if CO2 was really the end-of-civilization-as-we-know-it, greens would be all for nuclear ... the only proven off-the-shelf technology available today that is CO2 emission free.  You want to bet the future of mankind on some technological miracle in the near future?  And if greens insist on dithering on nuclear ... well, I guess CO2 really wasn't the disaster they make it out to be.People are adaptable, and there are winners and losers in climate change.  The US, Russia, Canada, and Northern Europe make out well.  The rest of the world, who knows for sure.  And I really mean, for sure.  Not some nebulous generalization that all climate change is bad, but specifics.  Not stuff that sounds sort of plausible.  Sea level has been rising since the end of the last interglacial.  People are still here.  Seaports are still here.  Low lying islands in the pacific will disappear.  That is the natural order of things.   Zimbabwe went from a food exporter to starving, without any help from climate change whatsoever.  North Korea is starving, that has nothing to do with climate change.My point about daily and seasonal temperature swings is so that everyone knows we have already adapted to those cycles.  A gradual warming over a hundred years of maybe a degree or two F, just isn't in the same ballpark as, say, the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting.And with China and India showing no interesting in reducing CO2 emissions, the US destroying its economy will have no impact.  CO2 will continue to rise.  Saying we can stop CO2 from rising sounds great in theory, but won't happen in practice.I have worked as a scientist and am very familiar with Occam's Razor, the placebo effect, the Asch psychology experiments, scientific modeling, statistical precision, accuracy, and variance, using models we know are wrong but are convenient, and wondering how anyone could possibly be completely cocksure about predictions of a complex, chaotic, non-linear system based on limited, incomplete, noisy data.  If you could do that, you would be a billionaire on Wall Street.There are sciences that are solid, reproducible and widely respected.  Climate science is not among these.  Just because scientists are afraid to speak their mind, doesn't mean they aren't thinking this. 
      1. Christopher S. Johnson's avatar

        Christopher S. Johnson Posted 10:35 am
        04 May 2009

        I cannot address that many jumped conclusions. I have a job already. I suggest reading more specifics.

        But I'll leave you with a couple of thoughts:1.) Just because the edges of a body of knowledge are developing doesn't mean one cannot make rational decisions based on the 90% likelihoods that are known in the heart of the subject. Gravity is not completely understood, and yet I bet you would want a parachute before I pushed you out of a plane.2.) Saying that "change is natural" is true. It's also natural that a car accident can decapitate your head from your body. Not only is getting into the car a choice, but so is purchasing the safety package when you bought it.Fortunately, this conversation is academic. Heavy CO2 legislation will pass. You don't get to have that extra 3% GDP in your lifetime, Oracle. Big disappointment, huh?

Add a Comment

You are not logged in. Thus, you cannot post a comment. If you have an account, log in. If you don't have an account, well, by all means go make one! Meet you back here in five.

Hello, Visitor!    Why not register?

Advertisement