One of the most striking findings from this year's Cascadia Scorecard from Sightline Institute (just released Tuesday, by the way) is that Northwesterners -- or, more properly, the residents of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and British Columbia -- are using less gasoline. In fact, per person gas consumption on the Northwest's roads and highways has fallen by nearly a tenth since the late 1990s.
To put the recent declines in context: cutting gas consumption by nearly a tenth is equivalent to each driver taking a one-month holiday from driving each year. At this point, the average resident of the U.S. Northwest uses less gas than at any time since 1967.
In case you're the chart-oriented type, here's what the long-term trend looks like.
Of course, the region's population has increased, so the recent trend in total consumption isn't quite as rosy: rather than declining, total consumption has remained roughly flat for the last eight years or so. But even that represents a huge break from the preceding decade and a half, during which gas consumption rose roughly in tandem with population.
Apparently, sharp price increases since the late 1990s -- when gas prices, adjusted for inflation, were at all-time lows -- has prompted a number of changes in how we get around town:
- We're driving a bit less. Person for person, vehicle mileage trends in the Northwest are on the decline. The decline is small and tentative, but if federal numbers are to be believed, it's real. There are several possible reasons for this. The first is that rising gas prices have encouraged us to chain trips (e.g., to run two errands on one trip) and to choose destinations closer to home (e.g., the local hardware store rather than the megastore a few miles away). The other possibility is that a gradual increase in urban density in recent years may have contributed to the decline in driving; people tend to drive less in urban areas, since there's a greater variety of stores and services a short drive away, or even within easy walking or biking distance.
- We're driving more efficient cars. In the Northwest, sales of hybrids have outpaced Hummers for years. More generally, there's some evidence that sales of the largest, least efficient SUVs have fallen. But more subtle shifts are likely having an impact. In families that have access to more than one vehicle, people are choosing to use more efficient ones for some trips. That is, some people who have the option are choosing cars over trucks.
- We're riding transit. Between 1999 and 2006, transit boardings in greater Vancouver and Portland have gone up by about 25 percent; in the Puget Sound it's been about 11 percent. Commuters, in particular, seem to be choosing buses over cars -- which may have as much to do with congestion and parking prices as with anything else.
So, gasoline is the good news. And it's especially good, since the reductions, at least in the Northwest states, are steeper than for the rest of the U.S. The reasons for the Northwest's advantages aren't completely clear, but it may be that good transit and effective land use policies have given drivers in the Northwest more options for fuel savings than elsewhere in the country.
The bad news is that the broader energy trends tracked by the Scorecard aren't doing so well. Diesel consumption is still on the rise, largely due to an increase in long-distance shipping. (We're buying more stuff, and it's coming from farther away.) And electricity consumption in homes and businesses apparently ticked upward last year -- the third straight year of per capita increase
The increases in diesel and electricity completely negated the decreases in gasoline consumption. So that gives us a good news/bad news story: good news in gasoline, and disappointing news for overall energy consumption.
Not all green jobs are created equal
Comments
View as Flat
feonixrift Posted 2:22 am
15 Jun 2007
Window on a changing world
I'm saddened that there aren't more homes trying to become at least somewhat heat efficient... It's not that expensive to get double pane windows, or put in a lighter color roof the next time that it has to be redone anyway. Without efficiency of that kind, every time it gets hotter the electricity use will shoot up as well, as people try to keep impossibly heat-leaky homes cool.
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DogsCatsAndStrays Posted 2:37 am
15 Jun 2007
Five year lag on transportation impact
Since the transportation fleet has a five year turn-over. It takes some time for high gasoline prices to take hold.
With electricity I predict larger increases in per capita consumption as large plasma screen televisions replace more energy efficient CRT's. Also more computers per capita will drive power consumption up.
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odograph Posted 2:47 am
15 Jun 2007
LCD
There are some nice LCD TVs out there with energy star ratings. I try to suggest them as plasma alternatives.
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JMG Posted 3:17 am
15 Jun 2007
5 year fleet turnover?
I think the authoritative Hirsch report prepared for the US DOE on the prospects for oil availability and prices said that it would take something like 17 years for the fleet to fully incorporate new mileage levels. And that's probably optimistic if gas prices hurt the economy significantly, because the old beater you have is still lots cheaper than the new, high-MPG car that's in great demand ...
Where does the 5-year turnover figure come from?
Save the world: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 5% annually.
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odograph Posted 3:31 am
15 Jun 2007
turnover
It's complicated. The fleet "turns over" to some extent, but actually the "retirement rate" (around 4.5%) is lower than the purchase rate. The fleet grows. But it is also true that the newest cars ard driven the most, and the oldest sit more.
It's true that cars last longer now.
It's true that turnover can accelerate as fuel prices increase. If I recall correctly, the retirement rate went above 10% in the 70s/80s.
So, it's a fuzzy area for projection, and probably a bad idea to say that a rate "is" in the sense that "it will continue to be."
I'd expect changes, especially if we make the global warming and resource issues sell ;-)
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WWAGD?! Posted 5:07 am
15 Jun 2007
Start Salting The Roads
Back in the 1980s, my first trip to the West Coast what I noticed was the prevalence of really, really old cars. Back in the Northest -- before rustproofing at least -- it was common that a car which was 4 or 5 years old had completed rusted out it's bottom from all the winter salting.
Maybe salting the roads was part of the auto-ecosystem and should be brought back. Even today, there are horribly old cars farting around I-5, and I remember reading that 1 car in 100 is usually responsible for 90% of the pollution. And that car is usually so old it's grandfathered in under the emissions testing laws (in WA state, if it's twenty years or older, it can be the biggest FartMobile it wants to be).
With technology advancing so fast, this is a case where planned obsolescence would be a good thing. If we can get everyone into a 150 mpg plugin-hybrid like the Chevy Volt -- Hooty The Owl will be whistling Dixie.
John Bailo
You Read It Here First
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gmunger Posted 5:36 am
15 Jun 2007
even sadder
when you consider how many citizens have no idea about how to open and close shades and windows in response to what happens outdoors.
It works like this, and it don't cost a dime:
In the summer, close windows and shades in the morning, prior to the onset of solar heating. In the evening, as outdoor temperatures wane, open shades and windows to allow cool air in. Rinse, repeat.
In the winter, do the opposite, except just with the shades.
Whoa, dude. That's so cool.
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DogsCatsAndStrays Posted 5:46 am
15 Jun 2007
JMG
It is hard to pin a number on fleet average turnover, trying to apply statistics to a persons decision to buy a new car has uncounted variables.
The best methodology to use for fleet average turnover is fleet half-life, it is probably as good a mathematical model as any. The trick is to try and guess the impact of external factors such as a doubling of gas prices. The five year half life (which I called turnover before) is from the oil industry and is based on gasoline price spike response. Historically the half life has been 8 years.
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gmunger Posted 6:13 am
15 Jun 2007
now that's a hoot
Who are you? And what have you done with jabaillo?
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odograph Posted 6:53 am
15 Jun 2007
numbers
If anyone is actually hungry for numbers, the EIA has more than you can shake a stick at. The Green Car Congress site also regularly updates sales and retirement numbers.
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d41295 Posted 1:22 pm
15 Jun 2007
plagarism
Clark, you plagarized Scorecard. You cut-and-pasted their entire account into your post, without quote marks and without giving them credit.
Do you think this is moral?
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tico89 Posted 1:41 pm
15 Jun 2007
Tenth?
Correct me if I'm wrong, or have missed something, but why is
With twelve months in a year, shouldn't it be a twelfth?If I share initials with 'Global Warming', is that a sign?
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Chris Schults Posted 3:01 pm
15 Jun 2007
fact check
d41295, if you're going to pollute Gristmill with your toxic comments, at least do a little research. Simply clicking on Clark's user profile reveals that he works for Sightline, the publisher of Scorecard.
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Ron Steenblik Posted 3:26 pm
15 Jun 2007
Serious accusation: where's the proof?
D41295: I assume you are accusing Clark of plagiarism (if so, at least get the spelling of the word right), a serious accusation that should not be thrown around lightly. Out of curiosity, I looked at the web site and the report and could not find any text identical to what Clark posted. But I admit mine was only a cursory comparison.
In any case, Clark provides a link to the original site, and he makes it very clear that he is reporting on the work that the Sightline Institute has done, not claiming it as his own.
Further, newspapers take press releases verbatim and report them as articles (without quotation marks) all the time, and nobody accuses them of plagiarism.
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Ron Steenblik Posted 3:30 pm
15 Jun 2007
That clinches it
Thanks, Chris. I missed your comment while I was posting mine.
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David Roberts Posted 3:31 pm
15 Jun 2007
Clark WROTE most of the scorecard
And everybody, really, for your mental health, ignore the Man of Destiny.
grist.org
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d41295 Posted 3:35 pm
15 Jun 2007
Clark
I don't care if Clark wrote most of Scorecard -- he does not own it. He signed his labor over to his master, and as such he must quote and attribute them correctly. Else it is plagarism.
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Nucbuddy Posted 3:57 pm
15 Jun 2007
Published-materials presented as new ones
David Roberts wrote: Clark WROTE most of the scorecard
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagiarism#Self-plagiarism
m-w.com/dictionary/plagiarized
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Ron Steenblik Posted 4:09 pm
15 Jun 2007
This is ridiculous
As I said:
And nobody yet on this string has provided any comparisons of text to back up their accusations of plagiarism, even self-plagiarism.
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Nucbuddy Posted 4:48 pm
15 Jun 2007
The post itself appears at multiple websites
Ron Steenblik wrote: As I said:
What was given attribution was simply this year's Cascadia Scorecard. The verbatim text of the post was not given attribution, and that text is what was copied. In fact, the very sentence that you seem to think is providing proper attribution appears verbatim, and equally-unattributed, at multiple websites.
Was some of the Cascadia Scorecard copied as well? That question is not relevant at this point, because evidence of plagiarism of the entire text of the post exists regardless.
.
Ron Steenblik wrote: nobody yet on this string has provided any comparisons of text to back up their accusations of plagiarism
The text of the post appears verbatim or near-verbatim at multiple websites:
google.com/search?q=%22To+put+the+recent+declines+in+context%22&filter=0
Here is one. Does it look familiar?
It should.
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Ron Steenblik Posted 5:11 pm
15 Jun 2007
Different issue
What you have shown links to, Nucbuddy, are other appearances of the same post on the web. The one you refer to at the end ("Here is one. Does it look familiar?") is a reposting, which links back to the original at Sightline's own website.
I suggest you do a google search on any Grist article, and you will see that they are picked up and reposted verbatim on hundreds or even thousands of other sites around the world. Writers cannot be blamed for other sites republishing their stories.
Whether writers themselves should be posting the same, original blogs on multiple web sites is a different question. I have noticed, however, that when David Roberts does, he makes it clear that the original was posted elsewhere. It seems, therefore, that the most Clark can be accused for is not mentioning that this article was also posted on Sightline's "Daily Score" website.
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David Roberts Posted 5:28 pm
15 Jun 2007
Daily Score posts ...
... are frequently reprinted on Gristmill, by agreement of all the concerned parties.
What I want to know, Ron, is why you're engaging these clowns as though they are not clowns.
grist.org
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Ron Steenblik Posted 5:36 pm
15 Jun 2007
You're right
"Don't feed the trolls."
But I try to ignore WHO is saying things and respond instead to WHAT they are saying. Plagiarism is a very serious charge, especially levied at a research director.
Thanks for setting the record straight.
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Nucbuddy Posted 6:10 pm
15 Jun 2007
Misrepresentation vs. same by agreement
David Roberts wrote: Daily Score posts [...] are frequently reprinted on Gristmill, by agreement of all the concerned parties.
If mere agreement of all the concerned parties would make unattributed-copying not constitute an instance of plagiarism, then acts of the following types must also not constitute instances of plagiarism:
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