Density is political destiny? 15

The Poor Man is one of my favorite blogs, but I rarely get a chance to link there, since they rarely discuss green issues.

But this post offers an ingenious (albeit largely wishful thinking) argument. It begins with this delightful 'graph:

OK, so, I'm not saying that this country won't devolve into a fascistic hellscape of race warriors and man-eating rats, disintegrating beneath the weight of its own reactionary isolationism. But even through the first six years of "WPE: The Quickening," I've been able to remain relatively sanguine about our long term prospects for one reason: if you're a Republican, demographics are against you.

("WPE," as PM fans know, is Worst President Ever.)

The argument goes like this:

  • Rising energy prices will force America to "densify."
  • People in dense urban areas are less able to maintain the wacky biases, hatreds, and conspiracy theories that fuel the far-right base.
  • Progressive majorities await!

OK, one more quote:

Once you reach a certain level of density and heterogeneity, pioneer-style laissez-faire capitalism, not to mention insular, homogeneous religiosity, simply stop working as first principles of social organization. Whatever other iconically American qualities you might look for, this nation is first and foremost the home of Pragmatism, and red-blooded, capitalist Americans stick to principles exactly until the point that they negatively impact their ability to provide a good life for themselves and their families. So, sure, it looks dark now, and the crazies are definitely in charge, but we'll see how crazy they stay when they have to sell the rural dirigible hangars and move back into town with the unwashed.

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. PBrazelton Posted 3:14 am
    08 May 2006

    Coming from the land of the unwashed...That's a lovely image of a world that does not exist in typical dense urban environments.  As someone who's lived in integrated neighborhoods for the last thirty years, there's plenty of racism, anger and self-imposed segregation in an urban landscape.  The notion of a bunch of people living in harmony due to proximity is science fiction, at least everywhere I've lived.  Unless the blog is talking about densely populated neighborhoods full of RICH people, in which case yeah, that sounds right.
  2. David Roberts's avatar

    David Roberts Posted 3:42 am
    08 May 2006

    PBrazelton,The conclusion comes from a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives by Ed Glaeser and Bryce Ward. Here's a quote:We find little support for the belief that these cultural differences represent long-standing differences in religiosity or the legacy of slavery. Instead... Blue State culture reflects primarily the legacy of different ethnicities working together at high densities: the most important historical explanatory variables are the share of the labor force in manufacturing in 1920 and the share of the population that was foreign born in 1920 in predicting liberal beliefs and voting for John Kerry. We interpret these results as suggesting that the liberal views that reduced traditional social divisions came about because there were gains to reducing economic and religious conflicts that could derail interactions in the marketplace.The idea, I think, is not that dense urban communities become islands of kum-ba-yah tolerance, but simply that residents of such communities learn to put those kinds of cultural differences aside for pragmatic reasons -- they have to operate together in the marketplace with diverse others. The differences come to play a lesser role in their politics, too.

    www.grist.org
  3. atreyger Posted 5:09 am
    08 May 2006

    And......damn the LA riots, or riots in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn or any other riots (except for drunken we just won or lost the final game riots). They are just insignificant blips of racial and socioeconomic violence.
  4. Backcut Posted 6:30 am
    08 May 2006

    Speaking of riots, Zappa may have said it bestWell I'm about to get sick

    From watchin' my TV

    Been checkin' out the news

    Until my eyeballs fail to see

    I mean to say that every day

    Is just another rotten mess

    And when it's gonna change, my friend

    Is anybody's guess
    So I'm watchin' and I'm waitin'

    Hopin' for the best

    Even think I'll go to prayin'

    Every time I hear 'em sayin'

    That there's no way to delay

    That trouble comin' every day

    No way to delay

    That trouble comin' every day
    Wednesday I watched the riot . . .

    Seen the cops out on the street

    Watched 'em throwin' rocks and stuff

    And chokin' in the heat

    Listened to reports

    About the whisky passin' 'round

    Seen the smoke and fire

    And the market burnin' down

    Watched while everybody

    On his street would take a turn

    To stomp and smash and bash and crash

    And slash and bust and burn
    And I'm watchin' and I'm waitin'

    Hopin' for the best

    Even think I'll go to prayin'

    Every time I hear 'em sayin'

    That there's no way to delay

    That trouble comin' every day

    No way to delay

    That trouble comin' every day
    You know we got to sit around at home

    And watch this thing begin

    But I bet there won't be many live

    To see it really end

    'Cause the fire in the street

    Ain't like the fire in the heart

    And in the eyes of all these people

    Don't you know that this could start

    On any street in any town

    In any state if any clown

    Decides that now's the time to fight

    For some ideal he thinks is right

    And if a million more agree

    There ain't no Great Society

    As it applies to you and me

    Our country isn't free

    And the law refuses to see

    If all that you can ever be

    Is just a lousy janitor

    Unless your uncle owns a store

    You know that five in every four

    Just won't amount to nothin' more

    Gonna watch the rats go across the floor

    And make up songs about being poor
    He wrote that in 1966 and it still applies today, maybe even more than ever. "Rap music" has rarely been better, more truthful or significant than Zappa's brilliance, ironically snuffed out way before his time.
    The ever-widening gap between the haves and have-nots will reach a peak when they're in such close proximity to each other. How far will "the MAN" go to keep his control over the "indentured servants"? Still, the uber-rich will segregate themselves in their "dirigible hangars" (love that term....LOL) out in the country.
  5. Wiseacre Posted 6:45 am
    08 May 2006

    to bob dylan:blow your harmonica son

    SJR
  6. caniscandida Posted 7:32 am
    08 May 2006

    ah, the 60sThanks, Backcut, for the lyrics and appreciation of Frank Zappa, truly a genious.  I wonder if he and the late Jane Jacobs ever met, and talked, back then.  And I wonder if she commented ever on LA, Zappa's home, and on whether or not it is more dysfunctional than other NA cities.  My guess is that she, like many East-coast observers who much prefer San Francisco, would barely consider LA a city.
    "Race riots" are a bit of a red herring.  Certainly the Watts riot, the Newark riot and others in the 60s were sparked by more than local concerns.  Much more relevant to the current issue might be the LA riot following the verdict on the beaters of Rodney King.  Also, the (fictitious) violence at the end of Spike Lee's "Do the Right Thing."
    Of course there are racial tensions, and ethnic and class competitions, in cities.  And of course all sorts of other jealousies and rivalries.  That has been true since antiquity.  Still, as a native Philadelphian, living most of my life in NYC, I think the point is well made that most of us who live in densely populated areas do most certainly learn tolerance, acceptance and forbearance from those circumstances.
  7. bookerly Posted 4:00 pm
    08 May 2006

    Urban Integration

       Interestingly, the point of this essay was perhaps part of the point that was put forth by those who supported (support) integration of schools.  The idea being that proximity breeds tolerance (at least).
       PBrazelton is correct in some ways.  One of the things that happens in large urban densities is not just the proximity, but the fact that political majorities beccome harder to achieve.  By this I mean majorities based on race, ethnic origin or other "divisor".  This requires a certain amount of power sharing (not complete, and with many flaws).
       This power sharing creates a certain live and let live attitude which is neccessary to exist and survive.  It does not always create real integration, but creates the possiblity for such.  (A lot of very liberal cities are socially segregated, as are many insitutions, and alas, much of the environmental movement).
        It is certainly true that a certain type of progressiveness seems to take hold, or at least the wackier types of ideologies don't hold up very well.
        But how progressive are our major cities, really?  Some of the more liberal cities top the category for meanness towards homeless people.  Very few (I am tempted to say none, but there might be one out there) are making any serious attempt to house the poor.
        Their green policies usually don't extend to transportation (except older East Coast cities).
        Many of them have the kind of zoning laws (seperation of housing, work and retail districts) that encourage travel.
        While density itself is better for the environment than sprawl, very few cities have any kind of serious environmental programs.
        Mostly they are progressive on issues that don't cost them an money.
        But they will grow.  As white America ages, it is expected to leave the suburbs (it once fled the cities for) and return to urban cores where services are cheaper and more readily available.  What this does to the non-white folks in the urban cores is not clear (do they get moved into the suburbs in a gigantic switch, so that cities resemble Europe?).
        Alas, this will all take some time to happen, and meanwhile we rush towards the cliff of global warming.
    patrick
       
  8. birdboy Posted 10:51 am
    09 May 2006

    so it's not the heat?I've long observed and heard from others that the South is a haven for the kind of isolationism, racism, religiosity, and intolerance that is being dreamed away here. I always assumed a link between the heat and the intolerance, but maybe the low density plays a bigger role. Most Southern states still have plenty of space where large groups of conformity seakers can go to hide from diversity. The daily smoke and ash that fills the air in my neck of the woods is the proof- they're burning the woods to make room for the on-going 'white flight', and developers are grinning ear to ear. Looking for progressives? Go North, young man (unless you're up to crossing a desert).
    I believe it's true- in the city, you can hide in your apartment and go to the back of the elevator, but you can't hide from the reality that all those people around you experience fear, anger, love, and loneliness, no matter how different they seem at a glance. Eventually, that wears on you, and in spite of your upbringing, your distrust, you learn to see through the appearances and to accept diversity. Down South, you just move farther out.

    a liberal in redsville
  9. Backcut Posted 2:17 pm
    09 May 2006

    It's not the heat, it's the humidityWhen I worked in South Carolina out in the woods, I wasn't used to the humidity and it DID have a big effect on my thinking processes. Sometimes I couldn't even use a calculator to save my life....lol. Identifying 40 different hardwood trees was much easier at 8 AM than at noon.
    While I reveled in the "Southern Hospitality", I somehow suspected that the poor black folks are still trying to recover their spirit and pride. I saw an untold fear and loathing in their eyes, especially when they didn't know that I was not a "good ole boy". While my own childhood didn't have any blacks at all in it, I also never was exposed to the predjudice and stereotypes, either. Growing up with lots of Hispanics around hasn't diminished my admiration for their work ethic and family values, either. On the contrary, I prefer to inspect Hispanic treeplanter crews instead of poor white trash crews.
    I'll certainly admit to being pretty naive about race issues but, putting all these groups together in a crowded city could be a recipe for disaster. We'd be foolish to think that us Americans are past the problems of racism and economic class warfare. I escaped to the mountains to get away from that stuff (along with the high rents and stupid city drivers grin ).
    PS... As of a few months ago, I heard that the number of murders in Chicago, (the highest in the nation), was over 500. We can't still blame that on Al Capone.
  10. bookerly Posted 11:52 am
    10 May 2006

    South VS North

       I grew up in the South, lived in New England for over ten years and California for 20 years.
       Racism is still an issue in all of these places.  In cities, people can segregate themselves socially and pretend to connect (Great movie, "Grand Canyon").  Look at "Crash".  
       I love cities.  But just living in one does not make you a more tolerant person.  
    patrick
  11. caniscandida Posted 5:08 pm
    10 May 2006

    "Crash"is a travesty, a hopefully-money-making-block-buster, a poor work of art, and basically a little-supported promise to the people of LA.
    Every reasonable movie aficionado knows that "Brokeback Mountain" should have won the Academy Award for best picture.  
    Thanks, Backcut, for your memoire.  Write it down some time.  Really.  All of us, we really need to have such things written down.
  12. amazingdrx Posted 10:24 pm
    10 May 2006

    Hehehey"...we'll see how crazy they stay when they have to sell the rural dirigible hangars and move back into town with the unwashed."
    So we rural psychopaths are the problem eyyh?

    http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
  13. bookerly Posted 8:23 am
    11 May 2006

    Cities aren't so bad...

       Cities do contain racism and other forms of prejudice, so does the countryside.  Small towns can be very intolerant.  But certainly not everyone there is intolerant.
       Most people in cities are generally more tolerant because otherwise living in a city is unbearable.
       But this does not mean that prejudice isn't still a problem.
       The most interesting polls show that generally white folks think there is less prejudice in society and non-white folks think there is more.
       As to movies, I thought Crash was weak, not my first choice.  I liked Brokeback Mountain, it certainly broke new social ground.  As an environmentalist, I have to go with Syriana.  Politically, the Constant Gardener and Good Night and Good Luck made important and interesting statements.  It was an interesting field.
       And leave us not forget Wallace and Gromit!!!
    patrick
       
  14. caniscandida Posted 10:31 am
    11 May 2006

    Wallace and Gromit!Dear Patrick,
    Yes, there is some justice still in this world, that "W&G and the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" won in its category.  The three shorter pieces from a few years ago are also excellent.  Our favorite is "The Wrong Trousers," with the penguin cast gloriously against type.  And another well-loved product from Nick Park and friends is "Chicken Run."
    I have not seen "Syriana" yet.  Thanks for reminding me of it, and for recommending it.  If it is out on DVD, I shall rent it this weekend.
  15. atreyger Posted 1:24 am
    12 May 2006

    Heat and humidityI'm not sure if it's the heat and humidity or that and a prolonged period of time. See, I wrote my thesis in 90 degree weather, living in a top apartment of a three story building, basically dripping sweat on the keyboard the entire time. It was a damn good piece of work too. But shortly after I was done writing it, and right before I started, it was nice and cool. I don't think that Southerners have that, they really just have 90 degree days for six months straight. That could drive me to go nutty too. This also feeds into their (of course not the end of the story either) disbelief in global 'warming', since it's so effing hot all the time.

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