The following post was first published on Passing Through, The Nation's guest blog, where I will be posting all month.
Regular readers of Grist know that coal is the enemy of the human race. They may also know that coal is on the ropes and, despite its recent PR blitz, in something of panic. Let's take a look at some news from just the past week or so.
A new report from gas, coal, and power consulting firm Wood MacKensie says that "the rate of coal plant cancellations accelerated during 2007 to the point that more than 50% of the new coal capacity announced since 2000 has now been canceled." That the trend will likely continue, especially given that fact that the cost of building a power plant has gone up by 130% since 2000.
Among the blocked coal plants is the infamous Sunflower plant in Kansas, which had its air permit denied late last year based on its projected CO2 emissions. Since then, Sunflower has done everything it can to get around the decision, including jingoistic attacks on Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius and a laughable coal-friendly "compromise" offered by its buddies in the legislature. (That bill passed today, but Sebelius says she'll veto and there aren't enough votes to override her.) Now, it appears, they've resorted to outright bribery: Sunflower says it will give $2.5 million over 10 years to Kansas State University ... but only if the plant is approved. Classy.
Then there's the dirty coal plant planned for Ohio by American Municipal Power. The NRDC made a public records request and got a hold of an internal AMP report (PDF) which is, to put it lightly, embarrassing. According to AMP's own numbers, the cost of construction has risen 180% in just over two years. The initial estimate put it at $1.2 billion -- it's now at $3.3 billion and rising.
Thanks to the 50-year contract AMP will sign with the state, Ohio ratepayers will be on the hook for any costs that arise from dealing with CO2 -- costs that are all but inevitable given pending legislation. AMP estimates the costs at $73 million a year, but a report (PDF) from independent research firm Synapse Energy Economics puts the costs at between $287 and $500 million a year. Oops!
In short: ratepayers in Ohio are going to get screwed 10 ways to Sunday by politically connected coal barons who haven't bothered to assess the renewable alternatives. Think Ohioans will sit still for it?
(If you'd like to read much, much more about coal plant cancellations, check this Sourcewatch article or Coal Moratorium Now.)
Maybe coal can survive if it's "clean"? Maybe. But an official at Royal Dutch Shell said last week that carbon prices would have to reach about $100/tonne -- three times current levels -- before investment in carbon capture and storage would make economic sense. Ah well.
Does all this churn amount to a necessary and laudable transition? No sir ... it's a crisis! At least that's what the CEO of American Electric Power -- a coal-heavy utility -- says. Other utilities, however, are getting on the energy-efficiency stick. And it's a good thing: Internationally renowned environmental analyst Lester Brown says that coal's time is up and that Wall Street will increasingly turn against it. (In this he agrees with notorious lefty enviro rag the Wall Street Journal.)
Coal disagrees:
The coal industry shot back, accusing Brown of exaggerating coal's contribution to climate change and ignoring the economic necessity of power generation.
"We're economically necessary." Is that the kind of argument people should have to make? Shouldn't it be self-evident if it's true? Isn't it contradicted by coal's ongoing economic failures?
And should it really come coupled with a request for massive government subsidies?
So there you have it: just in the past week, elite opinion against coal has accelerated, two major coal projects have run into embarrassments, and an independent report has confirmed that things are only going to get worse. Now you know why Big Coal has been sponsoring presidential debates, putting Santas on corners around D.C., and pouring millions of dollars into a PR campaign. It knows its time has passed.
Copenhagen, U.S.A. December 7
Comments
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Alex 77 Posted 6:21 am
21 Feb 2008
One thing this calls to mind is, what does the skyrocketing costs of coal plant construction do to the average price/kilowatt-hour of new coal fired electricity? I believe the conventional wisdom puts it at $.05-$.10 to the consumer. Doesn't this need upward revision?
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Solarspike Posted 7:19 am
21 Feb 2008
We are at 10 kW and 20 tons of CO2 per capita in the US and we need to get to 1/2 ton world wide. We will need better energy policy to achieve a 95% reduction in carbon based energy use. Feed-in Tariffs are the policy. http://onlinepact.org/
The 2007 Energy Act was a disaster for mankind.
And King Coal is still what we are relying on for our most important energy, electricity. Coal got the majority of new US energy subsidies not renewable energy. Nuclear always get 95% of DoE's budget.
http://www.celsias.com/2008/02/20/china-to-open-a-nazi-fu ...
http://www.celsias.com/2008/02/17/king-coal-looks-to-expo ...
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Pompey Road Posted 9:23 am
21 Feb 2008
The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.
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Matt Posted 10:32 pm
21 Feb 2008
I love it when people catch on to the fact that they have the power to change things with their wallets!
If you continue to do what you've always done you'll continue to get what you've always got.
- Yogi Berra
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Whiskerfish Posted 2:43 am
24 Feb 2008
Whiskerfish in Africa
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randino Posted 6:19 am
24 Feb 2008
Behind the scenes were fears that if the city did not join the deal, CPP would be driven out of business by cost per kilowatt hours, because it does not enjoy a monopoly in the city of cleveland, but must compete with its old foes in the private power industry.
Cleveland is so battered and beseiged that it reminds you of a third world country that thinks that it cannot risk anything but the same old, same old it has depended on in the past. Call it the conservatism of the oppressed.
In the end, Cleveland will get taken to the cleaners by this deal, and the environmental reputation of the Jackson administration and individual councilpeople who like to portray themselves as environmentalists, has been reduced to rubble.
This says nothing of what will happen to the beseiged residents of Meigs County, Ohio who are having to watch as their country becomes what used to be called in the 1970s, a "sacrifice zone." Good luck to Elisa Young founder of Meigs Citizen Action Now, who should be nominated for a Goldman prize. (David Roberts you should get Grist to do an interview of her (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
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trock Posted 11:16 am
24 Feb 2008
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