‘Consensus is collusion’—Is climate science maturing, or should we reach for our tinfoil hats? 8

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: More and more, climate models share all the same assumptions -- so of course they all agree! And every year, fewer scientists dare speak out against the findings of the IPCC, thanks to the pressure to conform.

Answer: The growing confluence of model results and the increasingly similar physical representations of the climate system from model to model may well look like sharing code or tweaking 'til things look alike. But it is also perfectly consistent with better and better understanding of the underlying problem, an understanding that is shared via scientific journals and research. This understanding is coming fast as we gather more and more historical and current data, all of which provides more testing material for model refinement.

Viewing the increasing agreement among climate models and climate scientists as collusion instead of consensus is a rather conspiratorial take on the normal course of scientific investigation. I suppose that fewer and fewer scientists disagreeing with the status quo is indeed consistent with some kind of widespread and insidious suppression of ideas, but you know, it is also consistent with having the right answer.

Former musician, turned tree planter, turned software engineer. Same old story…

I have been blogging about climate change since 2006 at A Few Things Ill Considered.

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  1. Zarkov Posted 8:22 am
    16 Nov 2006

    Get Real>> I suppose that fewer and fewer scientists disagreeing with the status quo is indeed consistent with some kind of widespread and insidious suppression of ideas, >>
    See the Tobacco industry.  What is the oil industry worth nowdays?
    >> but you know, it is also consistent with having the right answer.
    Tell me why, tell me why, if temperature goes up, rainfall goes down ?

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  2. Coby Beck's avatar

    Coby Beck Posted 5:25 pm
    18 Nov 2006

    very opaqueZarkov,
    You need to write more explicitly, I still have trouble understanding you points, ie what about the tobacco industry?
    tell me why, if temperature goes up, rainfall goes down
    Why do you think that?  I don't think it is correct as a general rule.

    Invent a clever saying, and your name will live forever!



    -- Anonymous

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  3. EliRabett Posted 10:20 am
    12 Dec 2006

    Why daddyTo first order the dew point increases

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  4. Ivriniel Posted 4:48 am
    24 Feb 2007

    Consensus and CollusionAn analogy I like to use with people who claim that climate skeptics are being unfairly ignored is the issue of HIV/AIDs.
    You'll still find medical professionals out there who claim that HIV doesn't cause AIDs. Does this mean that the rest of the medical profession has to pay attention to their theories or should doctors who agree with the medical consensus just get on with the business of fighting HIV?
    Ivriniel

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  5. gravy Posted 5:16 pm
    20 Apr 2007

    Show me a doctor who denies the HIV AIDSconnection, and I`ll show you someone who isn`t a qualified medical doctor.
    Almost nobody denies the earth is most likely warming. What they disagree about is what is responsible: Methane, the sun, naturally occuring Co2, man-made, Co2, water vapor, farming, deforestation, etc etc, and to what extent each has an impact. They are all pretty much agreed upon to have a certain amount of influence on temperature. Nobody is pointing at little green aliens or anything equally ridiculous as being responsible. They are disagreeing about mutually agreed upon factors.
    What to HIV/AIDS connection deniers point to, voodoo? God`s revenge?
    IOW, your analogy is wrong.

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  6. Coby Beck's avatar

    Coby Beck Posted 1:20 pm
    21 Apr 2007

    IPCCgravy,
    If you are at all interested in the science of this issue you really must review the IPCC TAR WG1 report, here:

    http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm
    It is the single best place to start.  Some of the items you list as reasonable points of disagreemnt are frankly not far from the same category as little green men!  (I am thinking specifically of the notion that the CO2 rise is of natural origin or that water vapour is driving climate change)

    "What if this weren't a hypothetical question?"

    -- unknown

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  7. rcglinsk Posted 5:53 am
    24 Mar 2008

    Consensus is as dangerous as Iraq's WMD'sOf all the silly arguments for global warming consensus is the same thing as truth simply takes the cake.  Remember how everyone agreed Iraq was building weapons of mass destruction?  How'd relying on that consensus turn out for us?  
    Breaking news: "A survey of people who get paid by governments to do climatology research shows that 95% of people think climatology reasearch is totally awesome and should receive even more public funding."  

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  8. Voldemort Posted 1:49 pm
    24 Jun 2008

    Consensus vs. scientific consensusScientists are held to--and hold themselves to--higher standards. Unpopular ideas, like handwashing, spread if they turn out to be true. The same is not true of politics. This is why there is a mismatch between the political consensus now (let's do nothing, or talk and do nothing) versus the scientific consensus. WMD was an example of a political consensus uncontaminated by actual facts.
    Recall when there was no consensus about what killed the dinosaurs--asteroid strike or volcanoes. Now there's a consensus that it was an asteroid strike. What happened was not a popularity contest or some sort of political putsch, but rather a slow accumulation of facts supporting one side.
    In any case, the argument here is not "consensus is the same as truth" but "consensus is not the same as conspiracy". You are responding to an argument that isn't being made. Science is always provisional, and no scientist would say otherwise.

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Series Intro
'There is no evidence' -- Yes, there is 59
'Mauna Loa is a volcano' -- CO2 rise is measured on top of a volcano! 8
'Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect' -- No, it isn't 25
'One hundred years is not enough'--Yes it is 18
'The scientists aren't even sure' -- No scientist ever is 33
'One record year is not global warming'--Luckily, there are plenty more years to consider 19
'Glaciers have always grown and receded'--A few glaciers melting does not mean global warming 14
'The temperature record is unreliable'--But temperature trends are clear and widely corroborated 8
'It's cold today in Wagga Wagga'--Weather and climate are different 2
'The satellites show cooling'--No, they don't 15
'What about mid-century cooling?'--No one said CO2 is the only climate influence 11
'Antarctic ice is growing'--Well, probably not, but even if it were, we are not off the hook 8
'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick 170
'But the glaciers are not melting'--Except ... they are! 3
'Antarctic sea ice is increasing'--Yes, but ... 14
'Sea level in the Arctic is falling'--Sea level is a surprisingly complicated thing 11
'Climate sensitivity is not very high'--Thermal inertia of the oceans means the jury is still out 2
'Some sites show cooling'--But you can't draw global conclusions from individual sites 0
'Global warming is a hoax'--I wish James Inhofe were just a hoax ... 12
'There is no consensus'--If this is not consensus, what would consensus look like? 109
'Position statements hide debate'--True enough, but that is not the whole picture 5
'Consensus is collusion'--Is climate science maturing, or should we reach for our tinfoil hats? 8
'Peiser refuted Oreskes'--In a poor piece of work that has been retracted by its author 4
'Models don't account for clouds'--Clouds are complex and uncertain, but unlikely to stop warming 6
'Climate models are unproven'--Actually, GCM's have many confirmed successes under their belts 13
'Aerosols should mean more warming in the south'--More North. Hemisphere warming is well-understood 1
'We can't even predict the weather next week'--But weather is not climate 11
'Chaotic systems are not predictable'--Sure, but who says climate is chaotic? 13
Understanding what is happening right under our noses does not require paleoclimate perfection 1
'They predicted global cooling in the 70s'--But that didn't even remotely resemble today's consensus 29
'Hansen has been wrong before'--Maybe, but not about the climate! 13
'It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum'--This period was not global and not like today 4
'The Medieval Warm Period was just as warm as today'--Repeating this point does not make it true 216
'Greenland used to be green'--Don't judge a book by its cover, much less a land by its name 23
Yes, the last ice age started thawing over 20,000 years ago, but that stopped a long time ago 5
'The hockey stick is broken'--Well, no ... but who's playing hockey anyway? 6
'Vineland was full of grapes'--Or was it an early advertising campaign? 4
'Global warming is part of a natural cycle'--This idea is one short step above appealing to magic 39
'Mars and Pluto are warming too'--No they aren't -- and what if they were? 24
'Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans'--Not even close ... 31
'The null hypothesis says warming is natural'--An inappropriate test, and one that would fail anyway 4
'Climate is always changing'--That doesn't mean it isn't different today 5
'Natural emissions dwarf human emissions'--But emissions are only one side of the equation 5
'The CO2 rise is natural'--No skeptical argument has been more definitively disproven 12
'We are just recovering from the LIA'--Why should we expect this to happen? 4
'Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor'--No, they really don't 4
Water vapor is indeed a powerful greenhouse gas, but there is plenty of room for CO2 to play a role 29
There is no proof in science, but there are mountains of evidence 78
'CO2 doesn't lead, it lags'--Turns out CO2 rise is both a cause and an effect of warming 43
'Geological history does not support CO2's importance'--Just not true 0
'Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change'--Not so 19
'It's the sun, stupid'--Very bright, yes, but not getting brighter 18
The problem is not how high the temperature may go, but how fast it is changing 14
'Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing'--Kyoto is only in its first phase 16
China and India have joined Kyoto, they just have different obligations, as is morally appropriate 3
'Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster'--Not really, but this may be lesser of two evils 6
Only if you ignore fossil fuel emissions 10
In 2008, did temperatures drop as much as they rose over the whole 20th century? 71
Is the IPCC so wrong their theories contradict a basic laws of physics? 23
Is the American Physical Society a crack in the climate change consensus? 3
Summer ice in the Arctic has recovered--Was the Arctic ice retreat a climate anomaly? 7
'Global warming comes from within'--Is heat at the Earth's core the real cause of global warming? 10
Was there another breathless announcement of another phony record, and another quiet retraction? 1
Hansen wants the skeptics thrown in jail--Did James Hansen really want to try the climate skeptics? 6
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