There's a great op-ed in the NYT today making the argument that, however much Malthus and his heirs have fallen out of favor, they may have the last laugh. Limits are back, baby!
Here are two memes I'm happy to see getting out into the mainstream:
- In the words of a recent interviewee (watch for it tomorrow): Coal is the enemy of the human race.
- This, from the last paragraph:
... we really need to start thinking hard about how our societies -- especially those that are already very rich -- can maintain their social and political stability, and satisfy the aspirations of their citizens, when we can no longer count on endless economic growth.
Yup.
And speaking of happiness without economic growth, I'm in the midst of reading "The Role of Well-Being in the Great Transition" (PDF), part of this series of papers on the Great Transition recommended by Deborah in comments.
It starts off strong, with some interesting discussion of the components of well-being and how they track with increasing wealth (short version: initially well-being rises sharply with wealth, and then past a certain line additional wealth has little or no effect). Good empirical research and such.
Then, toward the middle, it veers off the tracks into some sort of bizarre hippie socialist vision of future communities in which capitalism, having secured enough wealth to make everyone rich, is jettisoned in favor of love and community and overweening regulation of every aspect of life, but not forced or violent regulation -- oh no! -- because everyone would meet in their loving communities and welcome these regulations with open arms. Oy. It's like Ecotopia, but ... well, it's just like Ecotopia.
Maybe the last third will pull it out. I'll report back.
Copenhagen, U.S.A. December 7
Comments
View as Flat
Samuel Fromartz Posted 7:39 am
29 Nov 2006
I think innovation could work if subsidies were removed gradually and energy began to reflect its true cost. I think this is what he was getting at ... that it could happen but ain't happening yet. The quick and much misguided fix the world is pursuing is to burn more coal to replace oil because it's relatively cheap to extract.
Samuel Fromartz
Author
Organic Inc: Natural Foods and How They Grew (Harcourt, 2006)
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Deborah Byrd Posted 11:00 pm
30 Nov 2006
The people who've written the Great Transition Initiative's new paper series are scholars.
Their goal is to envision possible futures. If one of those futures involves a utopian society ... well, that's just one possible future. They envision some scary futures as well ... a whole range of global scenarios.
There are many, many interesting ideas there.
Deborah Byrd
Earth & Sky Radio Series
"A clear voice for science."
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Orion Kriegman Posted 2:19 am
01 Dec 2006
Glad to see you are reading the Well-being essay from the Great Transition Initiative Paper Series. The papers in this series are meant to develop different thematic aspects of a holistic vision. These are not meant as blueprints, they are offered as portraits of positive alternatives to counter act the despair and cyncism that many of us have when thinking about the long-term future of our planet.
For a more developed articulation of our optimistic vision of global society in 2084, see the 15 page essay, Great Transition Today: A Report from the Future.
I'd be curious to get your further reactions,
thanks for taking the time,
Orion
P.S. The GTI Paper Series is itself an elaboration of the Global Scenario Group's influential essay, Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Check it out, I believe you'll find these scenarios of interest.
Orion is the Organizer for the Great Transition Initiative (http://www.GTInitiative.org)
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Biodiversivist Posted 1:36 am
02 Dec 2006
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Help acquire and protect ecological hotspots, give to a conservation organization: http://www.saveourbiodiversity.com
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sunflower Posted 2:08 am
02 Dec 2006
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