Cellulosic ethanol represents a beacon on the horizon -- the justification cited by wiseguys like Vinod Khosla for dropping billions per year in public cash to prop up corn ethanol production.
Corn ethanol, you see, is a bridge to a bright cellulosic future.
But the beacon is looking more and more like a mirage, a ghost, a specter; the bridge we're hurtling down may well lead to a chasm. A quiet consensus seems to be forming among people you'd think would know the facts on the ground: cellulosic ethanol, touted as five years away from viability for decades now, may never be viable.
Last fall, a researcher from the USDA -- an agency that has lavished ethanol with research cash since the '70s -- declared that while cellulosic has "some long-term promise" (some?), we shouldn't expect it to contribute significantly to fuel supplies before 2013.
Then in January, Colin Peterson -- chair of the House Ag Committee and a long-time friend of agribiz -- let slip that "I'm not sure cellulosic ethanol will ever get off the ground." He muttered something about "a lot bigger problem to overcome here than people realize in terms of the feedstocks."
Now we get a new study (PDF) from a trio of ag economists at Iowa State University. For the record, the authors are conventional ag scholars firmly entrenched within the corporate-dominated research world described so well by Nancy Scola in her recent "Monsanto U." post.
Indeed, one of the authors holds the Pioneer Hi-Bred International Chair in Agribusiness. (Pioneer is the genetically modified seed arm of the chemical giant Dupont.) The researchers' patrons -- i.e., the agribiz giants -- benefit from the corn-as-bridge-to-cellulosic myth; it keeps those highly profitable government goodies coming.
So it's surprising to see these mainstream economists deliver such a dismal forecast for cellulosic ethanol.
To come up with their forecasts, the authors do their economists' trick of creating a model and plugging in various assumptions.
They start by calculating that without the latest round of goodies -- i.e., the fat "Renewable Fuel Standard" of the 2007 Energy Act -- cellulosic ethanol (and biodiesel, too) would have withered away. In that scenario, corn ethanol would keep ramping up from the current level of about 7 billion gallons, pushed by high oil prices and the $0.51/gallon tax credit that's existed for years.
Here's what they say would have happened by 2022, if the 2007 Act had never happened (economists lay out their conditional, speculative scenarios in the simple present tense):
The corn ethanol sector expands until total production exceeds 18 billion gallons per year. Biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass are not viable in this scenario. Cellulosic ethanol never expands, and the biodiesel sector contracts so that there are no biodiesel plants operating in the long run.
They add a bit that I found particularly devastating: "These results suggest that [without the 2007 Energy Act], once the opportunity cost of land is taken into account, rational farmers will not grow switchgrass or soybeans for biofuel production, and rational investors will not build these plants."
Believe me, that thing about "rational" farmers and investors is strong stuff, coming from conventional economists.
Now, what happens when we account for the 2007 Act's hefty mandate? Current production, almost all from corn, stands at about 7 billion gallons. The act demands 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022, of which 15 billion comes from corn, and the other 21 billion gallons comes from cellulosic (and to a much less extent biodiesel).
The authors seriously doubt the cellulosic target can even come close to being met. They reckon that the mandate can inspire "rational" farmers and investors to churn out 4.5 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by 2022 -- but there's a catch. In order to reach even that level, the government will have to significantly jack up the tax credit awarded to mixers -- from the current 51 cents to $1.55.
The message is this: Even with the fat 2007 Act mandate, cellulosic ethanol can only offset a tiny amount of petroleum use -- and then only if it's borne aloft by titanic amounts of public cash.
Ask Umbra on green moving companies
Et tu, Al? Franken gulps the ethanol-spiked Kool-Aid
Comments
View as Flat
gzuckier Posted 9:59 am
03 Mar 2008
cellulosic ethanol
if that were feasible, wouldn't liquor distilleries have discovered it long ago, rather than spend big money to grow dorn?
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GreyFlcn Posted 10:21 am
03 Mar 2008
"It's the feedstock scarcity, stupid."
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amazingdrx Posted 11:58 am
03 Mar 2008
Relative cost of clean kwh
Cost of a gallon of ethanol's worth of miles, in a plugin hybrid powered by clean kwh? 75 cents.
Cost when charged from your own solar panels (after a few years payback period) 0 cents per gallon's worth of miles?
It is very difficult to understand why 10 cents per kwh or 60 cents per gallon (saved by the plugin hybrid and solar panels) shouldn't be provided to investors. With government tax incentives diverted from corporate welfare for oil, coal, agribizz fuel, and nuclear power.
Isn't it about time to get started on reducing GHG? The oil war costs over a dollar per gallon of gas and heating fuel we use. All borrowed money from china and Saudi Arabia.
Wouldn't it be better to pay our neighbor with a solar panel or wind farm for our transportation fuel and stop borrowing money so americans can kill and be killed for oil?
It's the economy... and the soul. And mother earth at stake.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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Craig Allen Posted 12:01 pm
03 Mar 2008
Australia's new leader gets real on agriculture.
Oh what a difference enlightened leadership makes!
Australian prime Minister Kevin Rudd has signaled taxpayer grants to support drought-affected farmers will be overhauled to ensure grants encourage climate change preparedness.
>> News article at the Australian Newspaper
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Pompey Road Posted 12:03 pm
03 Mar 2008
Redundancy
I know it may not be as fesable for us on account of the massive amount of fuel we use per day.
But as far as efficiency and coming closer to something that acutally works, the Brazil Sugar Cane things looks more vialbe than using a food stock.
They actually use the by product of the process for a heat source to make the new fuel. I know the corn lobby has ruined this venture and the subsidy will be long lived. Most anything farm related is but I do not why they never took a realistic look at sugar cane.
The stuff actually works, I don't know about the economy of scale but they run a 75% mix down there with over 4 million cars now on pure ethanol. Sugar Cane
The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.
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Pangolin Posted 12:42 pm
03 Mar 2008
Cellulosic fuels might work on small scales
I mean really small scale as in town gas plants that would service a block of houses, a village or a dairy. This could be done using pyrolisis systems and local storage. It could still be a significant wedge. If waste cellulose was transported less than a mile to the local plant and all products used locally it would work.
Cellulose (trimmings, dung, leaves, waste wood and paper) get to the plant on electric garden wagons. Cellulose is sun dried and pyrolized in a pressure system. No productive land is needed to provide feedstock as the feed in needs are modest. Using high pressure pyrolisis even septage becomes a valuable feedstock instead of waste.
Products- town gas, bio-fuels, hot water, char, ash and steam are distributed locally and efficiently. The town gas and the steam can be used to make electricity.
The char and ash are returned to local fields increasing their fertility and sequestering carbon. The whole process would be carbon negative.
If you scale the whole thing up to fuel cars in distant cities it becomes an energetic and economic loser due to transport costs of feedstock and product.
Put the Carbon Back
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JMG Posted 3:54 pm
03 Mar 2008
Hilarious (The Onion)
"Just once, can't one of our poorly considered quick fixes work?"
http://www.theonion.com/content/amvo/biofuels_worse_for_t ...
Save the world: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions 5% annually.
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mcg404 Posted 1:51 am
04 Mar 2008
waste cellulose?
is there really such a thing? Soil carbon matters a lot. Steal it from the field and you'll pay. Nobody seems to consider the impact on soils.
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christophersj Posted 2:51 am
04 Mar 2008
Again
Again, another blog post that doesnt differentiate the huge differences between corn and switchgrass. In fact, isnt this whole posting confused by naming corn as a cellulosic ethanol???
Why mention the worst kind of ethanol (corn) and then dis cellulosic woody switchgrass types? Isnt this like mentioning Twinkis and Broccoli in the same breath and saying "food is bad for you"??? Am I missing a point?
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cheflovesbeer Posted 2:52 am
04 Mar 2008
ethanol
Grow corn
Just for food
Not cars
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Tom Philpott Posted 3:03 am
04 Mar 2008
christophersj,
Well, the study says that switchgrass competes with the same land that now grows corn and soy. In order to get farmers to foresake some corn and soy for switchgrass, you've got to compensate them for it with higher subsidies. But when you do that, that pushes up the corn and soy price -- which pusges up the subsidy you need for switchgrass! These guys claim that the 36 b gallon mandate will exacerbate the "food vs. fuel" problem for this reason.
So for them, cellulosic will likely come from corn stover, or "waste"--which means the soil will need yet more mined and synthesized fertilizers.
The whole thing sounds like a bit of a mess, really.
Victual Reality
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bfreewithrp Posted 3:24 am
04 Mar 2008
Fuel or Food?...Simple as That.
An Abrupt Reality, Fuel or Food
Ethanol, Will It Totally Replace Gasoline?
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christophersj Posted 3:27 am
04 Mar 2008
But
But the way I hear Amory Lovins and press articles like National Geographic or Wired tell it, switchgrass can be grown in harsher climates that corn and soy dont like and it requires little fertilizer.
Here is my point: even if neither is perfect, as Grey Falcon likes to point out, is it intellectually dishonest to lump switchgrass and corn into the same subject heading when the differences are so vast in both environmental impact and energy return?
If switchgrass made its promise of being grown in the Dakotas and Montana and alongside intersate Highways, used little to no fertilizer, returned a 36 fold energy prize, and produced 90% less CO2 than gasoline, wouldn't it need a different classification than corn?
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Tom Philpott Posted 3:53 am
04 Mar 2008
Perhaps, but....
...you've got to sort out how to harvest that switchgrass. How efficient can it be to harvest it along state highways? And then you've got to haul all that bulky hay to the plants--which are concentrated in the corn areas. Assuming, of course, plants designed for corn can be retrofitted for switchgrass. As that great American Colin Petersron says,it seems like we face "a lot bigger problem to overcome here than people realize in terms of the feedstocks."
Victual Reality
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PJD Posted 4:02 am
04 Mar 2008
Traditional Farm Perspective
If this study is primarily focusing on the economics of existing farms, it may be missing part of the picture. I'm not weighing in on one side or the other, but there are many aspects of biomass that don't seem to be addressed. Here is a link to the government report estimating that a billion tons of biomass could be available annually in the U.S. without negatively impacting food supply. I think it was one of the primary drivers for all the excitement over cellulose. Again, I'm not supporting that assertion... but here's the link.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/final_billionton ...
It would be interesting for someone with the time and knowledge to compare this new Iowa State study to see how it actually stacks up against this government study. Is it outright contradicting anything, or just making some economic assumptions that make the monetary viability of the scenario look questionable. It would seem to be a good thing if switching food acreage to cellulosic acreage would require such a large subsidy... don't give the subsidy and the fuel doesn't displace food.
One should also consider that there have been some studies since that government report considering something called Low Input High Diversity (LIHD, or was it HDLI) that proposes mixed grasses and plant species as being potentially better than monoculture switchgrass.
Here is the glossy corporate interpretation of that government report.
http://coskata.com/EthanolFeedstockPotential.asp
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christophersj Posted 4:16 am
04 Mar 2008
I dont know
I dont know. Beats me. How were we ever going to figure out how to fly to the moon or eradicate small pox?
What were you going to put into the liquid tank portion of your plug-in hybrid in 2012? I'd rather it not be gasoline. Lets do the least bad thing.
If battery technology and nano-tube solar panels can do the whole job, then great. I'm the first in line.
-Christopher
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Pangolin Posted 4:18 am
04 Mar 2008
No "buts"
What do you think that land is doing now? The reason that you see an empty field in the Dakotas or Montana is that you can't grow a profitable crop there. That means that it is now pasture and empty pasture means that it's trying to grow more grass while the grazers are elsewhere. There are no "extra" grasslands.
Where there is "extra" cellulose is in whatever green or brown yard and tree waste that goes to the dumps. Here in California we are currently chipping and/or burning large piles of prunings from grapes and orchard stock. These stocks aren't concentrated enough to feed a large industrial plant. Plus we want the carbon and ash back in the soil where it will do the most good.
In forests slash biomass in frequently burned that could by pyrolized but again feedstocks are widely dispersed and seasonal. Ideally you would want a process that took minutes instead of hours, produced profitable product and returned the majority of carbon and ash to local soils as amendment. The whole rig would have to fit on one or two flatbed trailers also.
Here is a list of companies developing these technologies. It's a process that works but isn't going to replace fossil fuels for the happy motoring utiopia.
Put the Carbon Back
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christophersj Posted 5:14 am
04 Mar 2008
Pangolin
Pangolin,
it sounds like you have this figured out from every angle. Have you thought about contacting the NRDC, National Geographic, Sierra Club, Rocky Mountain Institute, ect. and letting them know about the huge mistake they are making in promoting cellulosic ethanol?
It sounds like all of these well meaning organizations are lacking fundamental and basic knowledge. Have they been hood-winked?
I'm not a scientist so I rely on reports from these organizations for my environmental information.
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BILL HANNAHAN Posted 5:38 am
04 Mar 2008
Not enough biomass
Authors of the Solar Grand Plan published in Scientific American
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan
want to use all our biomass to feed solar storage, but it is only enough to meet 20% of the requirement in 2100, with none left over for liquid fuels.
See point number 3.
http://science-community.sciam.com/topic/Solar-Grand-Plan ...
Things Everybody Should Know About Energy
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atreyger Posted 6:58 am
04 Mar 2008
one sided considerations abound
There is a bit of a problem in the above analysis: it seems to consider only the opportunity costs of growing switchgrass vs. corn for ethanol production. OK, interesting, but what about the millions of acres of forests, with little or no market for low value wood? The opportunity costs there are minimal, and will only benefit the landowners, and increase forest management opportunities.
Also, I believe the greatest downfall of cellulosic ethanol (or ethanol in general) is its lack of transportability under current infrastructure limitations, and a lack of savings when considering delivery by truck. Corollary to that, localized production systems will have a great advantage over a centralized system in Iowa.
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wunderhof Posted 8:36 am
04 Mar 2008
Our energy
The analysts overlook the implicit costs of having our foreign policy held hostage by Middle Easterners. Since 1973 we have been bound to the whim and fancy of the Arabs. Any developed, home made, energy supply will be preferable. The actual costs of petroleum dependence cannot be made fungible.
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GreyFlcn Posted 9:11 am
04 Mar 2008
Lol, speak of the Devil :P
"EIA Forecasts Significant Shortfall in Cellulosic Biofuel Production Compared to Target Set by Renewable Fuel Standard"
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/03/eia-forecasts-s.h ...
http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2007/05/comments-on-senat ...
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Pangolin Posted 9:59 am
04 Mar 2008
Forest biomass
If it's any consolation there's plenty of forest biomass that could be used for cellulosic fuels. I won't say ethanol because I think ethanol's a loser. The problem is that it's hard to get at.
All of those computations about the value of cellulosic ethanol assumed that the cellulose would be harvested by a a combine. Forest biomass has to be harvested by a feller-buncher or worse, guys with chainsaws. Then it has to be hauled to the plant, dried, converted and the fuel shipped by truck or rail.
When I see a tree crew there's at least three guys working one chipper truck sometimes five. That's not a very profitable operation if you're trying to convert wood chips to methanol or biodiesel. The feller buncher is faster but eats fuel itself and requires moderate slopes to operate.
The reason loggers clearcut is because it's the most profitable way to operate. Flatten everything and take what you want is faster than leaving a thinned but functional forest behind. It also destroys soils and contributes to erosion. That's a non-starter as far as carbon balance is concerned.
So the forest biomass is there, it can be sustainably harvested and create carbon negative fuels. There is no way it's going to be cheap.
I can imagine a future where a giant solar-powered airship hovers above the forest. Bladed tentacles hang down and grind low quality trees to chips and vacuum them into an on-board pyrolisis unit. Hydrogen is stored in lift bags with methane and liquids go into ballast tanks. At the far end of the ship a suspended platform weaves through the forest injecting a slurry of hot char and water into the soil. The ship moves on leaving perfectly spaced lumber and habitat trees to grow in the newly fertilized soil.
Call Popular Science, I got the cover.
Put the Carbon Back
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GreyFlcn Posted 10:12 am
04 Mar 2008
Well then
Well here's my link :P
http://stopbp-berkeley.org/CellulosicBiofuels.pdf
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Pangolin Posted 11:37 am
04 Mar 2008
GreyFlcn with the links again. dang!
The rest of us are limited to our imagination, half-remembered articles from Discover magazine and whatever b.s. we can pull out of our rears.
Then Greyflcn posts something that includes this:
That would have something to do with the fact that the entire ecosystem can't absorb the CO2 output of a mere 5% of the human population. There isn't any extra capacity in the ecosystem
I liked my idea with the big, tree-eating zeppelin better. Spoil my fun. ;~P
Put the Carbon Back
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christophersj Posted 11:51 am
04 Mar 2008
I like the zeppelin
I like the zeppelin. It rocks.
Anything is possible.
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Ron Steenblik Posted 11:57 am
04 Mar 2008
That's the spirit!
Who cares about the limits of nature, and of the fundamental laws of physics. Anything is possible. Yes we can!
These are only my personal opinions.
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amazingdrx Posted 12:23 pm
04 Mar 2008
Ahh no
"it can be sustainably harvested and create carbon negative fuels"
Only the biomass that would otherwise burn could be used without pushing the GHG balance in the wrong direction. That would be carbon neutral only if renewable energy were used in the whole process, necessitasting more GHG intensive energy to replace the renewables.
Only in a 100% renewable energy system that had a surplus for prohjects like this could it even be carbon neutral. It will never be carbon negative.
That's not enough biomass to make enough liquid fuel to extend gas guzzling.
It could only be harvested safely and efficiently with moderm equipment. no crews with wood chippers throwing brances in and chainsawing. the accident rate alone would make it uneconomic.
Working in the woods like that is more dangerous than coal mining.
The agtibizz experts claim a $1.55 per gallon subsidy would be needed even after all that dangerous, expensive, energy intensive work.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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christophersj Posted 1:10 pm
04 Mar 2008
Attitude is
Attitude is just as important as physics, ask a survivor of a traumatic event.
Its nice to hear about the real world limitations but there really can be amazing and brilliant solutions to some of these problems. From Beethoven to Pasteur to the NASA team that went to the moon, new paradigms and elegant concepts can be had for those who are creative.
Can you imagine if I were to talk to you about antibiotics or the internet in 1900?
But you have to have the attitude. Silicon Valley does.
- Christopher
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GreyFlcn Posted 2:11 pm
04 Mar 2008
Heh
Well speaking of links.
I was blogging over here on a similar subject:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/recolumnists ...
Pretty much when it all comes down to it:
"It's the Feedstock, stupid"
Then again, Algae would be nice.
Assuming you're willing to pay $1,200 a barrel for it.
http://greyfalcon.net/algae4
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Ron Steenblik Posted 4:19 pm
04 Mar 2008
Attitude & subsidies
Attitude is fine for people who are investing -- putting at risk -- their own hard-earned money. All one can say to them is: lots of luck.
But in the case of biofuels, we are talking about billions in public subsidies, commitments to future tens of billions in subsidies, other billions in costs to consumers (not just in the subsidizing country but also, more importantly, in food-importing countries) -- all (so we are assured) on the self-fulfilling promise that keeping agro-fuels going (after 30 years already of subsidies) is building a bridge to a cheaper, more efficient cellulosic nirvana.
With such heavy intervention, and the potential for serious unintended consequences, "attitude" is exactly what we don't need among those who are setting energy policy. What we need is cold, hard analysis, a priority on cost-effectiveness, and a willingness to change course in light of new evidence.
That does not mean necessarily abandoning research and demonstration projects for cellulosic ethanol. But it should mean a fresh -- and honest appraisal -- of whether current mandates and subsidies are leading the country down a primrose path ... or a dead end.
These are only my personal opinions.
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christophersj Posted 4:58 pm
04 Mar 2008
Yeah
Yeah I'm definitely talking about R&D and entrepreneurship. Some new way of doing X or Y that none of you finger waggers have not thought of yet.
And of course I would want it to be self sustaining financially and even profitable.
I'm not an ethanol whore, I'd love my rooftop to provide all of my energy needs.
Maybe cellulosic ethanol will be just for heavy machinery and batteries/solar/wind will be fine for house and car. Whatever. We'll figure it out.
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Pangolin Posted 8:02 pm
04 Mar 2008
Reply to DRx.
Forest fuels can be sustainable with careful management.
"it can be sustainably harvested and create carbon negative fuels"- me
Where the ground doesn't freeze and outside of bogs all the carbon is returned to the atmosphere from biomass even if the nutrients are recycled into new biomass. Locally termites are quite efficient at converting woody waste to more termites and methane. Even when you are using said waste as a house. What they can't do is convert charcoal into methane. The plants however can extract nutrients from charcoal. Harvest the hydrocarbons, vent the steam, burn the hydrogen and carbon monoxide and bury the charcoal. About 30% of the carbon in the biomass is sequestered. Short of sinking logs that's the only way you can sequester more carbon than the climax forest contains.
One guy with an ox and a fat tire cart, 5 hectares of forest and 4 neighbors doing the same thing sharing the pyrolisis plant. He doesn't even need power tools, in the amazon stone axes and zero animal power created an area of Terra Preta estimated to be greater than the British Isles. It's sustainable and carbon negative because the carbon is still there.
Nothing, short of aliens floating down to earth with Mr. Fusion devices for everybody will maintain the happy motoring utopia.
Modern equipment requires roads, steel, lubricants and fuel. The most efficient modern addition would be a light steel monorail system capable of moving 1 ton loads. Establish each zone as a food/fuel/habitat coppice and it would yield more calories than a cornfield for less input.
No joke. Not as dangerous as fishing though. Fishing, forestry and agriculture jobs are the most dangerous professions. Much of the hazard comes from haste and poor management practices. If the work was done at a human pace the hazard could be reduced but never eliminated. What's your house made of? What's in your refrigerator? Have you ever seen a choker-setter work a clear cut? Wood comes at the price of blood; there's no other way.
Trashing the ecosystem of an entire planet is a pretty heavy subsidy for air conditioning and weekend flights to the islands don't you think? At some point we are going to have to put all that carbon back and people will still need tar and diesel. North Carolinans are called tarheels for doing exactly this work at lower efficiencies. It's not a desert, there's still forest there and there's still forest in England and Germany despite thousands of years of wood burning. It can be managed.The program where we got 80-from-one energy yields from fossil fuels is done. We have to plan a replacement even if we don't implement it right away. The important thing was to establish foresters with a vested interest in the long-term yield of their patch. Billhook knows all about this stuff as he seems to be involved with a coppice forest in England.
Put the Carbon Back
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spaceshaper Posted 11:08 pm
04 Mar 2008
Coppicing - good! Cellulosic ethanol - still bad.
Coppicing has been practiced sustainably for centuries to produce fences, furniture, building materials and yes, fuel for home heating and cooking uses, at the same time as it has provided a stable and dependable habitat for wildlife. Most parts of a traditional Windsor chair come from coppice growth, as does the wattle in wattle-and-daub. Traditionally done skillfully by hand with the billhook (the Englishman's machete) the growing coppice often does double duty as hedgerow - the coppice area of any agricultural land resource has been carefully balanced against other needs and the coppice's strictly limited yields are carefully managed over time to optimize the value and utility of its product.
Does this rich history and knowledge-base give us any grounds, whatsoever, for believing that coppicing could be managed sustainably on the massive scale necessary for ethanol production as a substitute liquid fuel? It is undeniable that our liquid fuel demands are somewhere between voracious and totally out of control. Seems to me that monopsonistic reduction of the coppice to mere feedstock for this insatiable appetite is self-evidently yet one more environmental disaster in the making and an absolute travesty of the integrated, wholistic, and sustainable coppicing tradition.
The true meaning of life is to plant trees, under whose shade you do not expect to sit.
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atreyger Posted 2:14 am
05 Mar 2008
Pangolin,
Actually, it's a lot easier to cut the best and leave the rest, because then you don't have to worry about cutting trees, i.e. spending lots of time and money. Clearcutting is a viable regeneration strategy for early successional tree species. It is an absolute fallacy to think that it is cheaper to clearcut.
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spaceshaper Posted 10:52 pm
05 Mar 2008
Not strictly on-topic,
this latest blog posting from a North Carolina biofuels coop nevertheless provides good, honestly-framed background on the ethical and financial quandaries currently being faced by those attempting local, sustainable-scale biofuel production:
http://energy.biofuels.coop/general/2008/03/05/going-glob ...
The true meaning of life is to plant trees, under whose shade you do not expect to sit.
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chuck kottke Posted 1:47 am
07 Mar 2008
Jump not to quick conclusions
I've been milling over this problem for some time (as we all have!). The 95% of the problem is simply efficiency; the 5% is production. Basically put: we're fixated on solving this problem by production, when the real answer lies with efficiency mainly; production secondarily. Consider the auto. Slipstream designs and slower speeds on highways could double efficiency; better engine designs could double or triple that efficiency; this means mileage 4-6X current levels is quite feasible, all without compromise! Add better layouts for shopping & work (which is a lot of the driving I see being done), and more rail transportation - we really do have a long ways to go.
I wouldn't write cellulose-based ethanol off the page quite yet. Research into better and better enzymes (from fungi & termites) may help solve the riddle of cheaper ethanol from organic matter. As far as efficiency, it will beat corn-based ethanol - because biomass is easier to make than starch from a plant's perspective. Reverse Osmosis might be the way to go for efficiency of separation for alcohol and water (vs. distillation). Funny, isn't it - the termite runs quite well on biofuels! Oh, if nature can do it, then why can't we?? I say - engage brain - there's an answer. It took a leap to get silicon solar cells in the 50's; it's going to be a leap to get cellulosic ethanol up to max efficiency, but we can do it. Even if it's only perhaps 4X the output of energy compared to input, it's still not bad.
As far as solar-cell electricity-to-battery cars go, there's another good direction. We simply must design better batteries though - all that lead, nickel, cadmium, lithium, etc. run environmental risks and are in limited supply - better to work on carbon nanotube supercapacitors, light metal cells, zeolites for H2 storage, etc. as prime movers. Making good advances in slipstream designs will make the miles go up as fast as anything.
But the real answer is 95% efficiency; 5% newer & better technologies.
I sometimes wonder.. we have an economy that flies along at 100 mph, and never seems to stop and smell the roses. Perhaps we ought to consider revamping our economy to promote quality of life, rather than quantity of stuff. Locally grown food makes much more sense than food from hither, tither, and yon. Locally produced power as well! Just looking at electricity, if 90% of the energy is lost before you turn on the switch, does this make any sense either? All the biofuel plants in the world are no real help, if the energy isn't being used wisely. I think we should look to producing energy nearest the point of use - and using the waste heat generated to improve our lives as well - one could have greenhouses, houses, swimming pools, etc. heated with the energy lost in the transition to make electricity.
Makes to much sense, though. But markets will ultimately force the change to happen, as we cannot keep going all-out bonkers on expansion, and a more common-sense approach will then become common.
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Thomas Dobbs Posted 2:42 am
11 Mar 2008
cellulosic ethanol not viable
Good post, Tom. When I was involved in some small-scale ethanol (corn-based) economics research 25 years ago, one of the biological scientists at my university was touting potential technological breakthroughs for cellulose at that time. Breakthoughs that would make cellulosic ethanol economically feasible were supposedly just around the corner--the same hype we've again been hearing the last 2 or 3 years. I think cellulosic ethanol is always going to be "just around the corner", kind of like the "light at the end of the tunnel" predictions we heard during the Vietnam War.
Thomas L. Dobbs Professor Emeritus of Economics, South Dakota State University, and W.K. Kellogg Foundation Food & Society Policy Fellow
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richharding1 Posted 11:41 pm
14 Jun 2008
sugar cane
I believe ethanol is still an important part of the solution even if it is only a small part. We can't continue to produce fuel from corn because corn is food, but we can still use ethanol from sugar cane, even if we have to buy it from Brazil. In terms of geopolitics, it would be nice to have the alternative of buying our fuel from Brazil as opposed to buying it from OPEC. At the very least, it would diversify our fuel sources and give OPEC a little competition....
BTW, I wouldn't give up on cellulosic ethanol just yet, it's still in its infancy.
Rich.
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Ron Steenblik Posted 12:07 am
15 Jun 2008
Tell that to Congress, Rich
Just one little problem: there is an ad valorem tariff of 2.5% plus a specific-rate tariff of $0.54 per gallon levied on undenatured ethanol from Brazil. And Congress keeps extending the tariff, most recently (in the Farm Bill) for another two years.
In the past, there was a duty-drawback scheme which allowed importers to get back the duty they paid on imported ethanol for every gallon of jet fuel they exported. (Fuelling a jet flying off to another country counted as an export.) But that loophole was closed in the Farm Bill, effective 1 October 2008, which will make it even more costly to import Brazilian ethanol in the future.
These are only my personal opinions.
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Biodiversivist Posted 1:49 am
15 Jun 2008
Increasing cane ethanol production
will require further carbon sink destruction via crop and pasture displacement, which is the second leading casuse of green house gases.
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
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amazingdrx Posted 2:15 am
15 Jun 2008
Infancy ..infanticide
This cellulosic ethanol baby needs to die. It has been under research since the 70s at least. The army supported experiments with wasp stomach bacteria to break down the cellulose, then send the starch into a regular fermentation step, then to distillation.
It hasn't been perfected yet? How much research money has been invested in nearly 40 years?
Let's take another example of a much touted fantstically GHG intensive fuel process. Coal gasification and coal to liquid fuel.
When was coal gasification first put into mass production? Remember the gas lamps that lighted cities way back in the 1800s? That was coal gas from coal gasification.
Almost 200 years and it still emits at least twice the GHG of oil based fuel.
Look at the history of nuclear power. Nearly 60 years and it still is fantastically expensive and problematic. After 100s of billions in subsidies.
How long has wind power been around? Hundreds of years, and it's always been cost effective and GHG free. And now the cost of electricity from wind is down to 4 cents per kwh, one third of the cost of power from fossil fuel or nuclear power.
It's pretty clear where this ought to lead us. To replacing liquid fuel guzzling in 6% efficient behemoth gas guzzlers (with 4 times the weight and horse power they need). With plugin hybrid hypercars and plugin bikes and electric powered mass transit. Powered by wind and solar, which is now coming right down to meet the cost of wind.
It is very hard to understand how this mass delusion that is fuel farming can continue given the powerfully obvious arguments against it. That's what the corruption related to misplaced subsidies can do.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog
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papermaker Posted 3:40 pm
16 Jul 2008
Viability
The economics on ethanol radically change when you accept a simple conceit -- the direction that it is going is whole trees. Consider that pulpwood is harvested and delivered at less than $30/ton ($75/wet cord). In all timber states in America, the forest harvesting is well below the sustainable levels meaning natural growth far outstrips harvesting. This means timber is a renewable resource. A ton of corn in 2007 averaged $114/ton. The next step of course is to derive the ethanol not from fermentation but through gassification. If you have a heat sink to take excess energy from gassification process, you then have a very efficient process. Take this syngas and through Fischer-Tropsch synthesis you create diesel. The Germans have been using Fishcer-Tropsch process to create diesel from coal for over 85 years. Vehicles do not have to be modified and the distribution system already exists. Hence Choren, VW, Daimler-Benz, and Shell's SunDiesel plant in Freiberg, Germany. The Alpha site has already produced diesel, the Beta Plant is designed to produce 4.2 million gallons per year and is very close to going online. They plan to construct sites that can produce over 50 million gallons per year from 1 million tons of dry biomass. Construction begins in 2012. Substituting whole trees for biomass can not be far off in timber rich areas. The US currently produces 90 million tons of paper a year from 360 million tons of trees. If all of those trees were converted to diesel instead of paper we would produce 10% of the fuel used by automotive vehicles in the US in 2005. If all trees industrially harvested in the US were converted to diesel annually we would supply 24% of the US's automotive fuel. This gross substitution is certainly not practical but as I said before, the forest harvesting in America is considerably below the sustainable rate.
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amazingdrx Posted 3:54 pm
16 Jul 2008
Yep papermaker
And unfortunately it is happening right here in northern Wisconsin.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=772398
Trees into biodiesel, to burn in 6% efficient diesel guzzling vehicles. With $30 million wasted on it. Thanks to Dave Obey.
He could have got the 30 million for farm biogas, but no, a technology that offsets GHG, and makes farms into backup power providers for a renewable power grid. Tree fuel farming, that's what this genius wastes his seniority on. A boondoggle that spikes GHG.
Good for you congressman, listen to those lobbyists. Money talks.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
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eheath1000 Posted 3:07 am
18 Jul 2008
So much corn
We grow a whole lot of corn, and only use the kernals for food and ethanol. All the rest of the corn plant, stalk, cob and leaves, are waste. Farmers only farm during spring and summer, so they would appear to have extra time to collect the waste. And they are going to grow the monoculture corn because it is pushed by big agriculture and the government.
So we might as well try to do something with the corn waste. I don't know about the processing of it, but with gas at 4 bucks a gallon, it seems worthwhile and maybe proiftable to try.
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Biodiversivist Posted 3:35 am
18 Jul 2008
No
The stover is valuable for many things, like a soil additive and for erosion control. Turning it into fuel requires more oil to be turned into something else, like fertilizer. No net gain. It took a corn crop area the size of Indiana to increase our liquid fuel supplies about 2%. You can see how corn ethanol, for all the expense and damage it does, contributes next to nothing to lowering gas prices.
In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world
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