At least someone gets it:
All three of the leading Democratic candidates have proposed cap-and-trade plans that auction 100% of their CO2 permits. This is, economically speaking, the same thing as a carbon tax.
The context: New York Times columnist Tom Friedman is complaining that no major presidential candidate has proposed a carbon tax -- which he takes as evidence that nobody has had the guts to take a stand in favor of policies that would "trigger a truly transformational shift in America away from fossil fuels."
But as uber-blogger Kevin Drum points out, this is simply rubbish.
There are plenty of presidential candidates who are proposing a "truly transformational" shift away from fossil fuels by putting a price on carbon emissions. Yes, they've labeled their proposals "cap-and-auction" rather than "taxes" -- but economically they're peas in a pod. The only real economic difference, besides some administrative details, is in where they concentrate the economic uncertainty: in the price of carbon (for cap-and-trade) or the effectiveness of the program (for a carbon tax).
I'm not sure if Friedman doesn't understand this, or if he's just miffed that the candidates haven't adopted his preferred carbon pricing system. To his credit, Friedman's been a long-time carbon tax supporter. But claiming that taxes are the only "transformational" pricing policy for fossil fuels is silly.
Update: Here's even more speculation on what Friedman was thinking.
Comments
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David Roberts Posted 5:47 am
07 Dec 2007
grist.org
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KenG Posted 6:05 am
07 Dec 2007
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mleonard Posted 9:59 am
07 Dec 2007
With an auction, the year-to-year prices for "Credits" are uncertain - they are based on the supply (known, or at least predictable), and demand - which is NOT known, and not really that predictable. (Placing caps upstream helps this problem, but does not alleviate it). The volatility shown in the European carbon markets has been dramatic - and that volatility is very problematic.
I'm assuming we all agree that a massive overhaul of our energy infrastructure is what is needed,meaning that companies must do more than simply tweak/retool existing operations. As a society we must invest in entirely new pathways - merely adding scrubbers to coal smokestacks or increasing fuel economy by 2 mpg is not going to cut it.
The whole premise of carbon trading (auction or not) is on allowing economic flexibility - that companies can decide whether it makes more "financial sense" to actually reduce their emissions, or to buy excess credits from the market. But when a company looks at cost projections of buying excess credits on the market vs. actually reducing emissions - with an auction approach they can't do that long-range cost analysis as the price is too volatile. This is a major barrier to long-range investment and the true infrastructure shifts we need.
However, with a carbon-tax, the cost of emissions is known each year. And then companies the economic tools and incentive to develop the long-term infrastructure changes that we need. They can say "well, we might make less money this year, but in 10 years with carbon costing $xxx - we'll be much better off".
And to be fair - I'm making these arguments solely from an economic standpoint - there are plenty of equity concerns with carbon trading as well - who participates? Who regulates?
-Matt
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Tasermons Partner Posted 10:43 am
07 Dec 2007
It's a psychological thing.
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riverguy Posted 10:58 am
07 Dec 2007
Cap and trade requires a whole system set up with transparency, accounting, and verification. It requires markets and those markets can be volatile.
A carbon tax would address all sources of carbon from all sectors, while most cap and trade schemes often apply only to electricity generation.
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mwildfire Posted 11:47 pm
10 Dec 2007
So a tax might be better--and it seems to me it needn't be so hard to sell as long as we emphasize that it REPLACES INCOME TAX.
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