Brown gets down 7

Discovery News tells us that a biofuel crisis is looming. Lester Brown is concerned that two billion (about a third of the way across this window) desperately poor people may soon find their food in our gas tanks:

"I was looking at USDA grain estimates and two numbers jumped out at me," he said. World grain demand is projected to grow by 20 million tons this year. Some 14 million tons of that demand is expected to be for biofuels for cars in the United States. That leaves just six million tons to satisfy the food needs of many countries that import U.S. grain -- at a time when grain stocks are at a 34-year low and climate change and water shortages are making it harder than ever to grow grain.

Unexpectedly, Mat Hartwig, spokesman for the Renewable Fuels Association in Washington, D.C. disagrees:

In the fuel versus food debate it's not an either or situation. We can do both. Even individual kernels of corn can be used in both food and fuel, Hartwig explained. Corn can be processed to extract the sugars for making ethanol, leaving behind a high-protein "distiller's grain" that can then be used for animal feed, he said.

Hold on, my bullshitometer is going nuts. He's trying to convince us that the portion of a corn kernel that goes into your gas tank won't be missed.

But it takes 56 pounds of corn kernels to produce 2.8 gallons of ethanol and 17 pounds of distiller's grain. 56-17=39 pounds of corn lost that cannot feed people (or the cows that people eat). In other words, about 70 percent of a bushel of corn is lost to the food chain when you use it to make ethanol. That is what math is for. So the next time a biofuel profit taker feeds you a similar line of bull, call him on it.

My real name is Russ Finley. I live in Seattle, married with children. Suffice it to say that although I am trained and educated as an engineer, my passion is nature. I very much want my grandchildren to live on a planet where lions, tigers, and bears have not joined the long and growing list of creatures that used to be. In an attempt to minimize the workload on Grist editors responsible for turning my submissions into intelligible articles, I will also be posting on a seperate blog called Biodiversivist, which will contain articles in addition to those submitted to Grist.

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  1. ffletcher Posted 6:18 am
    16 Jul 2006

    Cost of etanolThe cost of raw corn kernels and grain is a very small part of the cost of producing food from those corn and grain.  Yet the cost of corn and grain is a large part of the cost to make etanol.  Therefore, an increase in the price of corn and grain will affect the price of etanol more than it will affect the price of corn and grain food products.
    Therefore, food is more likely to substain market positon in a price war with non-potable etanol.

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  2. atreyger Posted 8:26 am
    16 Jul 2006

    cornI think I said it elsewhere, but I am not sure how edible corn number 2 actually is. I wonder how the countries' people that import it eat it. The only way that I can think of is by means of corn flour, made into flavorless tortillas. If we are including Mexico into this equation, then the corn should not even be going there, since the original corn growers from that country are now in the US due to an oversupply of cheap, shitty US corn and lack of jobs and good corn in the country.
    It's unfair to compare corn the commodity: shitty, barely-food, with food the food: a nutritious, tasty, yet spoilable product. I am more concerned about the ramped up production of corn as a result of this biofuel development. I believe that American farmers should grow far less corn and begin growing other crops.

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  3. Biodiversivist's avatar

    Biodiversivist Posted 1:53 pm
    16 Jul 2006

    Can't really argue with either of youSoybean and rapeseed oil are also seeing a price hike. Beef prices will most likely go up as well. Not that I would notice, but a lot of low income people like their beef.
    Biofuels are driving food prices up. How will the competition for cropland affect the poor? Time will tell. This is just the beginning.

    In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Help acquire and protect ecological hotspots, give to a conservation organization: http://www.saveourbiodiversity.com

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  4. ffletcher Posted 3:45 pm
    16 Jul 2006

    Ever Think About Being a Farmer?The midest grows corn, wheat, soybeans, oats, milo, and other similar cereals because these products can be easily stored, shipped to markets where they can be converted to food products, and are not lablor intensive.  People in these areas do not yet believe that It is practical to raise those food crops that can spoil, must be hand picked, or processed before shipment as there simply are not enough people living in these rural areas and they are over 200 miles from urban markets greater than 100,000 people..  If people are interested they can move out to South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and rurual Texas and rent some dry land and give carrots, lettuce,tomatoes, fresh peas, squash, and other produce a try.  I suspect with proper planning a person could make a living doing so, but I might very well be wrong.  My uncle used to sell watermelons in South Dakota and was able to make a living.  A number of religious groups have been successful as well.
    For those people whom the concept of getting packed into a 650 square foot apartment in a city holds little appeal the concept of operating a vegatable farm in rurual america might be attractive.  It may even be a theme for a new kind of residential development where people move to these rurual areas, live with other like minded people and grow real vegetables that people can eat which they collectively harvest, process, and get to market.
    Crazy idea, probably too romantic to be sound, but it does have a human scale to it that has an appeal.  It may be possible to have a four to five month growing season in the North and maybe as long as seven in the South if one plans it right.

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  5. ffletcher Posted 4:37 pm
    16 Jul 2006

    DisclaimerMy glasses got broken and it has been hard to read the small print of the Post a Comment window using these 54 year old eyes.  You younger people, enjoy it while you can.  I am getting my eyes tested on Wednesday and new glasses soon after that.

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  6. bookerly Posted 8:20 pm
    16 Jul 2006

    Umm, packed?
       Dear FFletcher, good luck with your new glasses, my eyes are the same age.
       But, really "packed" into a 650 square foot apartment?  That would be a huge apartment!!  No??
    patrick

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  7. ffletcher Posted 4:39 am
    17 Jul 2006

    Fine Apartment Small GardenOne of the advantages of rural life is space.  Actually have some room for some pets as well maybe a local pond to store some rain water as well as fresh fish from time to time.
    If a person could make the farming thing work there is a potential for a whole new class of residential/agriculture life style development.

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