Black gold, Texas tea 2

Relating to this post: One good argument for using public policy to aggressively push alternative fuels and regulate environmental quality is that affordable oil is running out. There is, of course, much dispute over when Hubbert's peak will be reached, or whether it already has been. Some even believe that new technologies will continue to enable us to extract oil from more and more obscure places, ensuring steady supply.

Unlikely.

Four good posts to read on oil: Joel Makower says Hubbert's peak is here, drawing on a letter from an anonymous oil company employee on EnergyBulletin. Then, there's Kevin Drum, who points out that of course demand is about to exceed supply -- we've known that's coming for years -- and points back to this post of his from last year, which gets into the details.

I leave you with this cheery thought from anonymous oil guy:

It is not a question of "if" peak oil has occurred - it has! The better question might be "when are the crows coming home to roost?" When will we begin to actually experience the shortages and the rising prices? I think we might make a decade, if everybody plays nice across the world. But when has that ever happened when something got scarce?

David Roberts is staff writer for Grist. You can follow his Twitter feed at twitter.com/drgrist.

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  1. Toolsmith Posted 6:40 am
    25 Feb 2005

    Supply exceeded before peak? Hmmm......Sure we're gonna run out.  The graphs I've always seen show demand exceeding supply when supply was already dwindling.  With India's and (especially!) China's appetites expanding exponentially, could it be that demand will exceed supply before supply peaks?  If even by a few years, it could make all the difference.  Prices will skyrocket, but supplies will only sloooowly decline, rather than seriously crash.  We might actually have enough time to do something about it.

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  2. Catfish John Posted 10:44 am
    25 Feb 2005

    OilWe're beyond the peak and in the valley. This is great for the oil companies who currently control most facets of our lives. The prices will increase exponentially and, without an affordable alternative, what else can we do but pay for it?
    Visit the websites of the major oil companies and read closely about their "programs" related to new technology. It won't take long, as they essentially use wonderful manipulative language to announce that they are doing next to nothing to bring us better technology. Why would they?
    The "latest" technology will likely be patented by the oil companies anyhow, since no one can compete with their resources, and most of the grant money going to development of new technology is likely being intravenously fed to one of the long research arms the big oil companies function with anyhow.
    Go to BP's website and explore their research partners. Some have a dot.org designation, but the message is clear.
    It's out of our hands, folks, and we'll drain every last drop of oil before affordable, more efficient technologies reach the mass-market.
     

    Good things,



    JDT

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