‘Antarctic sea ice is increasing’—Yes, but ... 14

(Part of the How to Talk to a Global Warming Skeptic guide)

Objection: Sure, sea ice is shrinking in the Arctic, but it is growing in the Antarctic. Sounds like natural fluctuations that balance out in the end.

Answer: Overall, it is true that sea ice in the Antarctic is increasing.

Around the peninsula, where there is a lot of warming [PDF], the ice is retreating. This is the area of the recent and dramatic Larsen B and Ross ice shelf breakups.

But the rest of the continent has not shown any clear warming or cooling and sea ice has increased over the last decade or so.

This is not actually a big surprise.

In fact, it is completely in line with model expectations that CO2-dominated forcing will have a disproportionately large effect in the north. The reasons lie in the much larger amount of land in the northern hemisphere and the fact that the ocean's thermal inertia and ability to mix delay any temperature signal from the ongoing absorption of heat. The local geography also plays a dominating role. The circumpolar current acts as a buffer preventing warm water from the tropics from transporting heat to the South Pole, a buffer that does not exist in the north. You can read some more details about that here.

Does it "balance out" in the end? Not really. Sea ice in the Arctic is reaching dramatic record lows. There are other components of the cryosphere that we can look at as well, permafrost, the Greenland ice sheet, global glacier mass, and these all carry the Global Warming signal.

One must look at the balance of evidence, not just those bits one likes. And this balance is clearly in agreement with all other indicators that warming is real and rapid.

Former musician, turned tree planter, turned software engineer. Same old story…

I have been blogging about climate change since 2006 at A Few Things Ill Considered.

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  1. wacki Posted 6:49 am
    09 Nov 2006

    explanation....The reasons lie in the much larger amount of land in the northern hemisphere and the fact that the ocean's thermal inertia and ability to mix delay any temperature signal from the ongoing absorption of heat.
    Did they explain this on RC?  I don't remember this being clarified.  

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  2. Coby Beck's avatar

    Coby Beck Posted 8:06 am
    09 Nov 2006

    Pretty sureI'm pretty sure that this came up on RC at least a couple of times...maybe if Andrew Dessler reads this he can provide an more authoritative confirmation!

    Invent a clever saying, and your name will live forever!



    -- Anonymous

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  3. wacki Posted 9:32 am
    09 Nov 2006

    found it......The presence of a deep and circulating ocean component is key because ocean heat uptake increases most in the Southern Ocean as the climate warms (see Gregory 2000).
    polar  amplification
    Heh, your way of explaining it is 1,000x better.  As for the circumpolar currents, this image might come in handy:
    Image link

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  4. wacki Posted 9:45 am
    09 Nov 2006

    crappy search engine.......I just did a search on real climate using the:
    ttp://www.realclimate.org/index.php?s="SEARCH TERM"&submit=Search
    hack.  I found the word "circumpolar" in one and only one main post.  And that post was not about polar amplification.  Sometimes I wonder about those guys.

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  5. Coby Beck's avatar

    Coby Beck Posted 11:42 am
    09 Nov 2006

    at least they tryyes, well, the gulf between scientists and the rest of us is hard for them to see!  But kudos go to them for the fine effort RC makes, as I know you would agree.

    Invent a clever saying, and your name will live forever!



    -- Anonymous

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  6. wacki Posted 12:21 pm
    09 Nov 2006

    Re: at least they tryyes, well, the gulf between scientists and the rest of us is hard for them to see!
    Heh, I am a scientist!  I'm just in bio-tech and not climatology.  But yes, I know what you mean.  Heck I've given presentations that have gone over other peoples heads before.  So I guess I'm a sinner too.  :p
    But kudos go to them for the fine effort RC makes, as I know you would agree.
    Yes, I would agree.  I did not mean to insult them.  The guys at RC are world class researchers and even heroes IMO.  I'm just glad there are people like you.  Although I very rarely learn anything scientific from your blog posts I frequently learn a new way of communicating and bringing clarity to a concept.  And that is just as valuable!  So for that I consider you a world class communicator.
    Keep up the great work.

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  7. wacki Posted 2:37 pm
    09 Nov 2006

    clarification"Although I very rarely learn anything scientific from your blog posts"
    That's just because I read the RC forum first. :p  
    The unintentional jerk,
    wacki

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  8. Coby Beck's avatar

    Coby Beck Posted 3:46 pm
    09 Nov 2006

    don't sweat it!Not to worry, I took it to mean that.  I won't complain, not after all the other kind words!

    Invent a clever saying, and your name will live forever!



    -- Anonymous

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  9. grif Posted 5:01 pm
    06 Jan 2007

    Ice not increasing per NASA>> Overall, it is true that sea ice in

    >> the Antarctic is increasing.
    Not true, according to this recent NASA study:

    http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/mar/HQ_06085_arctic_...

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  10. DaveR Posted 8:27 am
    15 Feb 2007

    Re. Ice not increasing per NASAYou've misunderstood the report you linked to, which is referring to total Antarctic ice mass, rather than to sea ice.

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  11. dpercy Posted 9:10 am
    04 Mar 2008

    Antarctic and Arctic Sea Ice increasesWow, the reasons the Global warming crowd through at us For more Sea Ice are just laughable. I'm a Sea Ice Forecaster in Alaska. there is at leat 33% more Antarctic Sea Ice than March 3, 2007. There was also an increase in 2007 from 2006 and maybe a minor one from 2005 to 2006. These so called climo experts say its due to warmer temps and water? Thats like telling me I'm cold because someone turned up the heat, or, my pop froze in the refrig beause I turned up the heat. How stupid do you think we are? The FACT is its getting colder. Antarctic cooling always begins first. You know the warmest earth year was 1998, 10 years ago. Maybe we have peaked the warming that began in the late 70s and now the earth is cooling. My gosh the Climo researchers might lose grant money over this. TWO more FACTS, Temperature rises always LEAD CO2 increases. Arctic sea Ice rebounded this winter to levels not seen, in some areas such as Iceland, in more than 40 years.

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  12. dpercy Posted 9:22 am
    04 Mar 2008

    Total Ice vs Sea IceSea Ice increases first, then Glacial, depending on precipitation. There is also a lag time from the warming to the cooling for ice increases. The recent warming ended in August 2005 and the cooling will increase further after about 7 to 10 years. Care to make a wager?

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  13. Pangolin's avatar

    Pangolin Posted 11:15 am
    04 Mar 2008

    Thermohaline oscillation?I typed the following hypothesis before I googled but there seems to be partial validation here and here.
    The situation with any temporary increase in Antarctic sea ice could be the result of a slowdown of thermohaline circulation. This is just a wild-ass guess but it would be possible for slowed thermal transport to result in local cooling.
    While the amount of heat in the system is increased the amount available locally is always variable. Slowed thermohaline transfer of heat southwards from the tropics could result in temporary increases in sea ice cover while total systemic heat increases.
    As mixing with the circumpolar current with the south pacific picks up warmer pacific waters this may reverse drastically. As on a smaller scale adding heat to one end of a fluid system could result in harmonic oscillation.
    It's a very big system and the oscillation period could years but such oscillation would increase the thermal transport in the long run.

    Put the Carbon Back

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  14. rcglinsk Posted 5:44 am
    24 Mar 2008

    Hooray! Melt Arctic Melt!Hooray for the melting of the Arctic!  I call first dibs on the undersea oil and natural gas reserves.  Also, I'm selling futures on good Newfoundland coastal spots for ports and fisheries.  You all are just so confident the Arctic is going to melt.  I wish I could share your optomism, but the future is hard to predict, and I'm cynical by nature.    

    Permalink

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Series Intro
'There is no evidence' -- Yes, there is 59
'Mauna Loa is a volcano' -- CO2 rise is measured on top of a volcano! 8
'Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect' -- No, it isn't 25
'One hundred years is not enough'--Yes it is 18
'The scientists aren't even sure' -- No scientist ever is 33
'One record year is not global warming'--Luckily, there are plenty more years to consider 19
'Glaciers have always grown and receded'--A few glaciers melting does not mean global warming 14
'The temperature record is unreliable'--But temperature trends are clear and widely corroborated 8
'It's cold today in Wagga Wagga'--Weather and climate are different 2
'The satellites show cooling'--No, they don't 15
'What about mid-century cooling?'--No one said CO2 is the only climate influence 11
'Antarctic ice is growing'--Well, probably not, but even if it were, we are not off the hook 8
'Global warming stopped in 1998'--Only if you flagrantly cherry pick 170
'But the glaciers are not melting'--Except ... they are! 3
'Antarctic sea ice is increasing'--Yes, but ... 14
'Sea level in the Arctic is falling'--Sea level is a surprisingly complicated thing 11
'Climate sensitivity is not very high'--Thermal inertia of the oceans means the jury is still out 2
'Some sites show cooling'--But you can't draw global conclusions from individual sites 0
'Global warming is a hoax'--I wish James Inhofe were just a hoax ... 12
'There is no consensus'--If this is not consensus, what would consensus look like? 109
'Position statements hide debate'--True enough, but that is not the whole picture 5
'Consensus is collusion'--Is climate science maturing, or should we reach for our tinfoil hats? 8
'Peiser refuted Oreskes'--In a poor piece of work that has been retracted by its author 4
'Models don't account for clouds'--Clouds are complex and uncertain, but unlikely to stop warming 6
'Climate models are unproven'--Actually, GCM's have many confirmed successes under their belts 13
'Aerosols should mean more warming in the south'--More North. Hemisphere warming is well-understood 1
'We can't even predict the weather next week'--But weather is not climate 11
'Chaotic systems are not predictable'--Sure, but who says climate is chaotic? 13
Understanding what is happening right under our noses does not require paleoclimate perfection 1
'They predicted global cooling in the 70s'--But that didn't even remotely resemble today's consensus 29
'Hansen has been wrong before'--Maybe, but not about the climate! 13
'It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum'--This period was not global and not like today 4
'The Medieval Warm Period was just as warm as today'--Repeating this point does not make it true 216
'Greenland used to be green'--Don't judge a book by its cover, much less a land by its name 23
Yes, the last ice age started thawing over 20,000 years ago, but that stopped a long time ago 5
'The hockey stick is broken'--Well, no ... but who's playing hockey anyway? 6
'Vineland was full of grapes'--Or was it an early advertising campaign? 4
'Global warming is part of a natural cycle'--This idea is one short step above appealing to magic 39
'Mars and Pluto are warming too'--No they aren't -- and what if they were? 24
'Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans'--Not even close ... 31
'The null hypothesis says warming is natural'--An inappropriate test, and one that would fail anyway 4
'Climate is always changing'--That doesn't mean it isn't different today 5
'Natural emissions dwarf human emissions'--But emissions are only one side of the equation 5
'The CO2 rise is natural'--No skeptical argument has been more definitively disproven 12
'We are just recovering from the LIA'--Why should we expect this to happen? 4
'Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor'--No, they really don't 4
Water vapor is indeed a powerful greenhouse gas, but there is plenty of room for CO2 to play a role 29
There is no proof in science, but there are mountains of evidence 78
'CO2 doesn't lead, it lags'--Turns out CO2 rise is both a cause and an effect of warming 43
'Geological history does not support CO2's importance'--Just not true 0
'Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change'--Not so 19
'It's the sun, stupid'--Very bright, yes, but not getting brighter 18
The problem is not how high the temperature may go, but how fast it is changing 14
'Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing'--Kyoto is only in its first phase 16
China and India have joined Kyoto, they just have different obligations, as is morally appropriate 3
'Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster'--Not really, but this may be lesser of two evils 6
Only if you ignore fossil fuel emissions 10
In 2008, did temperatures drop as much as they rose over the whole 20th century? 71
Is the IPCC so wrong their theories contradict a basic laws of physics? 23
Is the American Physical Society a crack in the climate change consensus? 3
Summer ice in the Arctic has recovered--Was the Arctic ice retreat a climate anomaly? 7
'Global warming comes from within'--Is heat at the Earth's core the real cause of global warming? 10
Was there another breathless announcement of another phony record, and another quiet retraction? 1
Hansen wants the skeptics thrown in jail--Did James Hansen really want to try the climate skeptics? 6
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