I share the relief many liberals feel about the election of Barack Obama. We dodged a bullet on a lot of issues by not electing McCain—inaction on global warming, escalation of wars, budget cuts in the face of a depression. But I don’t share the triumphalism, the idea that conservatives are defeated forever or even that Obama will necessarily tackle the issues properly. We are in the midst of a series of severe crises that demand fundamental changes. We are in the midst of wars the need ending, not mending. We face environmental and economic catastrophes that require large-scale public spending.
And Obama did not campaign indicating he would do any of these things. The “withdrawal” he promised from Iraq was a draw-down to 50,000 troops. He has been committed to an escalation in Afghanistan almost from the beginning of his campaign. When it comes to global warming, Obama seems dedicated to cap-and-trade rather than public spending as the primary driver. When it comes to economic recovery, he seems more focused on middle-class tax cuts than public investment as a primary stimulus.
This doesn’t mean Obama is destined to fail. Some of the stuff I think is too timid may turn out to work. And Obama is smart and flexible. He has already shown a willingness to adapt in the face of circumstances; for example, he supports fairly hefty public spending in the face of the on-coming depression—even if it is not as big as many economists think we need. To use a movie analogy, the Obama presidency could be like The Wizard of Oz—all about brains, heart, and courage. But only if he takes bold steps. Otherwise Republicans will get the failed presidency they hope for. And in that case the proper analogy will be Nudist Colony of the Dead.
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Comments
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bigTom Posted 11:48 am
29 Dec 2008
So yes, his first priority has got to be the collapsing economy. I only hope we don't throw away too much of our investment funds, on things we won't need post peakoil (like extra road capacity, or airport expansions).
On foreign policy and military spending, he is clearly not risking (at least not early on), challenging the Washington powers that be. I hope this is an ommission based upon a strategy of waiting for the optimum time, rather than a lack of conviction. But I suppose asking him to show his cards wouldn't be a very strategic move?
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hapa Posted 1:49 pm
29 Dec 2008
similarly, the economy around the world will shrink, right? the level of spending during the credit bubble is finished, the downswing will hurt, and wherever things stabilize -- under whatever additional constraints -- they will likely remain below bubble levels while obama is president. again, this can be cast as failure, regardless of how well benefits of a more sustainable economy are distributed.
and it will be very easy for dishonest people to say that mext year's contraction is because of irresponsible deficit spending. not only do these people have no political interest in cooperating, that economic school is famously horrible and cruel in its handling of downturns.
and plenty of conspiracies being built around everything, especially sovereignty. the sticky problem of needing a one-planet civilization in a society that is (justifiably) worried about corporatist NWO monsters.
the question is, to me, whether team obama (a) wants to -- and (b) can -- deliver service -- get real gains to the underemployed and under-water while getting everybody hip to the nature of the new ground rules for success.
the well is well and truly poisoned. it's gonna be a mess.
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hapa Posted 2:00 pm
29 Dec 2008
ps. "next" not "mext"
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Pompey Road Posted 12:24 am
30 Dec 2008
The problem is every sector has their turf and projects staked out and most time have a powerful lobby to protect it. If Obama does not put lobby reform on the top of his agenda and change the way that shadow government works or eliminate it everything else he tries will fail. He will come to the full realization we live in a corporacy now and the representative style of government was high jacked by corporations and special interest years ago. The people will back him on the toughest part of his economic plan cutting the waste and nonproductive spending and congress will have to go along or be seen as obstructing his recovery plan.
This in the one area where the Bush era fear mongering may actually help Obama with his recovery package. The constant barrage of the threat of a looming depression coupled with the actual unemployment and other negative economic indicators will give Obama a free reign when working the problem if he can squash the lobbyist influence in the legislative branch. The people are actually scared and actually hurting and if he can draw on the same grass roots support that funded his campaign and actually carried him to office his first year will be a productive one. It is the wrong time for second amendment , same sex marriage, abortion or any other peripheral back burner issue at this time.
If he follows the Roosevelt model and imitates the first 100 days strategy staying focused on the economy he will garner the support of the working and middle class. If he denies cover for the obstructionist representatives by neutering the powerful lobbyist groups that support them he will succeed. The last being almost impossible because they have become so entrenched in government as to make it totally ineffective.
Case in point, just look at what the Wall Street Lobby through its proxy government has done to us.
The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.
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amazingdrx Posted 2:37 am
30 Dec 2008
How long it takes to recover is the important factor. During the great depression, new deal stimulus programs helped reduce the pain and destruction of the depression, but they did not cause a recovery.
Full confidence on the part of consumers, business, and investors only returned with the jobs created by WW II war production.
Start manufacturing production of a new energy economy and a green job wave and that will restore confidence, ending this downturn. Manufacturing is the key to stop the pain in as short a time as possible.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
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Pompey Road Posted 2:15 am
01 Jan 2009
A two front war, the middle east in flames with terrorist looking for the chance to push this tottering house of cards economic system over. It won't take much to cause a total economic collapse by the 3rd quarter of 09. If Obama had the democratic majority Roosevelt had there might have been a slim chance of working the problem. A filibuster proof congress is a necessity for the first year of the Obama term if he is to be able to make any inroads or have any success rebuilding the economy. The change needed to control earmarked projects, pork and eliminate billions of dollars of built in waste from the budget will not be found in D.C. Every powerful lobby will be working overtime to protect their turf and line up for the bailout and new deal money. Everybody will be on the Yellow Brick Road to see the Wizard and they will either have their hand stuck out or coming to obstruct his economic recovery plan.
The fatal blow to our economic system was delivered by the deregulating, no oversight Ex Wall Street CEO Paulson who helped raid the treasury before the Bush regime lost power. The Reagan trickle down, deficits are good philosophy has hollowed out the economy along with the concept of we don't need manufacturing or the working and middle class. The polarization of the electorate gives you a dead mandate walking if not a dead man walking. I hope Obama can find his Ruby Red slippers click his heels and his whiz kids economic team can become economic experts. However somewhere along the road congress will have to find the heart and the courage to make the tough decisions and the right decisions to get our economic house back in order. Impossible task given the current corporate control of government by proxy through the lobbying process. Ironic how the corpocrcy cannibalized itself.
The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.
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