Who’s killing the plug-in hybrid? 12

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1. 

   Adam Browning Posted 12:00 pm
   16 Jan 2009

   comment periodNote that CARB is currently in a 45 day comment period that ends on Wednesday.  The board meeting is Thursday and Friday of next week.  If you want to submit a comment (more flies with honey, etc):
   http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bcsubform.php?listname= ...
   You can see what comments have already been posted here:
   http://www.arb.ca.gov/lispub/comm/bccommlog.php?listname= ...
   
   Get Some Sun: http://www.votesolar.org

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2. 

   felixkramer Posted 2:13 pm
   16 Jan 2009

   To get more background on the storyThanks, Adam, for the pointer. To see CalCars' backgrounder and a draft of what we'll say to the California Air Resources Board next week, as well as our "Sacramento Address" modelled on the most famous speech ever given in America, see http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/1039.html
   -- Felix Kramer, Founder, The California Cars Initiative (Calcars.org)
   
   Felix Kramer
   
   Founder, California Cars Initiative (CalCars.org)

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3. 

   amazingdrx Posted 2:36 pm
   16 Jan 2009

   Status quoIt's the status quo working through their contacts in government to do this.  Regulation never seems to be applied where it should be, to stop lead painted tots for instance, it is used to stall plugin hybrids, like the BYD model from China and the Audi-A1 from Germany.
   The warranty for conversions of the Prius has been a problem from Toyota first, now this official blockage.
   Conversion of standard economy cars would be easier and cheaper.  Aluminum tube frame, carbon tub for the passengers, and foam fiberglass body panels are necessary to lighten the weight.  basically this is all hobby race car do-it-yourself technology.
   Take out the gas engine, add a small electric motor, batteries for a 40 mile range, and a backup generator and there you have it.  That could be warrantied.  But 10s of thousands of dollars of computerized systems in a Prius?  No way.
   In fact the computers cause the main cost of the Prius conversion.   Take a cue from the Toyota 1/X concept car, it weighs 962 pounds has a standard serial hybrid plugin hybrid drive, and the same size and performance as a Prius.  Except it will go 600 miles on a battery charge and 4 gallons of gas.
   Converting steel gas guzzlers to plugin hybrid defeats the purpose.  Take the 160 hp Volt, please.  Hehey.
   
   http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

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4. 

   Pompey Road Posted 12:52 am
   17 Jan 2009

   Winner take all:At the turn of the last century we had three major types of propulsion in competition with each other in the automotive sector.
   Steam, electric and gasoline. Of course we all know which one won out. In a capitalist system Hybrid, Electric, and Hydrogen will have to compete for viability and market share. We may have to hold our nose and watch Natural Gas take the forefront for a short time as a bridge or transition fuel.
   
   The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.

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5. 

   biodiversivist Posted 2:49 am
   17 Jan 2009

   A double-edged swordIt looks like Hymotion found a fix for the air pollution concern, although it may cost 3 Prong a bundle to prove it for their version, so it boils down to the warranty issue. There is no technological fix for that problem. Lead acids used that hard have very limited life cycles.
   You could argue that if the company states up front what the life will be and guarantees what the replacement cost will be, it should be left to the consumer to decide. But nobody can give the consumer the odds that this company will be around for the life of the car to maintain the system. To me, that is the key problem here.
   I would agree that a bureaucrat has no place telling an entrepreneur that investors will not be forthcoming without a 150,000 mile warranty. The entrepreneur is the one taking the risk, and will find out if that is true or not.
   Nobody knows until they try if enough consumers will want to spend $7K to lug 360 lbs of lead around for 10 miles of electric power and then replace the whole pack (for a cost the company is not advertising) in two years. This consumer sure wouldn't.
   On the other hand, consumers who will be entirely dependent on 3-Prong for future maintenance of the system may not be aware of the risk they are taking.
   Lots of others have considered using lead acid batteries and concluded they were a bad idea. Personally, I don't think they have a viable business model, but who am I?
   That 360 lbs of lead (equivalent to two adult passengers and change) will reduce your mileage about 6-8% whenever you have used up you ten mile charge or hit the interstate.
   The government is trying to protect consumers who have come to rely on the government for that service (at least I have). It is clear that you will only get a few years out of these batteries. Note that the replacement cost question is missing in their FAQ section, which is an example of why the government has taken on the role of helping to protect consumers.
   They might have a viable model if replacement cost is low enough, and nobody knows how low that would have to be. And will the company be around for your car's life span with all of the other plug-in cars arriving in the interim? Possibly, but those are odds I sure would not take.
   This mod is for two kinds of people. Those who want a plug-in Prius so badly that they are willing to take the relatively high risk that the whole $7K system may have to be torn out in a few years because the company no longer exists to maintain it, and those who don't comprehend the risk they are taking. People out there who own electric cars built by companies that no longer exist go to very expensive extremes to keep those cars running. I know a guy who shipped his Sparrow from Seattle to Southern California to an expert to fix the problem that had idled the car for two years.
   How far should the government go to protect consumers? That will always be an arbitrary question. The government cannot guarantee that a company will stay solvent. It looks to me like this is a case where the government is trying to protect consumers from that risk.
   
   In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

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6. 

   hapa Posted 6:05 am
   17 Jan 2009

   the kits need to be better.CARB's motives would look cleaner if they'd get behind covering the testing costs and the improvement of the batteries and software.

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7. 

   dwsherwood Posted 3:46 am
   19 Jan 2009

   In response to the comments by biodiversivistHymotion does not have CARB certification under the new proposed regulations, only under the old regulations that did not have language specific to PHEVs.  They do not currently offer, for example, a 7 year warranty.
   At 3ProngPower, unlike many of our competitors in the electric vehicle industry, we choose to only advertise products that are actually available today, we do not take deposits on a product that then takes months or years to deliver.  
   Our current lead acid battery pack costs only $900 to replace.  Lithium batteries have a shelf life of at most 4 to 5 years and at the current price of lithium batteries it is actually less expensive to change out a lead acid pack a few time than to use lithium batteries.
   We will soon be announcing our own lithium battery product, and we offer to upgrade any of our lead acid customers to the lithium system for only the difference in cost.  This allows the consumer to drive a plug-in car today and to know they have the option to upgrade to a better battery technology once that battery technology is available and affordable.
   Most of our customers do not find the added weight reduces their mileage once the battery is depleated, this is due to the enhanced regenerative braking capability the vehicle has with the larger battery pack.  We include a suspension upgrade with the conversion such that the vehicle handlig is not significantly impacted by the added weight.

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8. 

   biodiversivist Posted 3:16 pm
   19 Jan 2009

   I'm on your sideI agree that the warranty issue should have nothing to do with certification. I don't see how that falls under their jurisdiction.
   Hymotion does not have CARB certification under the new proposed regulations, only under the old regulations that did not have language specific to PHEVs.  They do not currently offer, for example, a 7 year warranty.
   I was just saying that fortunately (for you and them) Hymotion has found a way to pass the certification, should you have to meet air pollution requirements per the new CARB certification, although proving it may still cost you both a pile of money. I think you should be exempt until you reach some minimum number of cars. You guys need some breathing room.
   Not sure where you got that 7 year warranty number. The article talks about CARB wanting a ten year warranty, Hymotion only gives 3, and you guys don't seem to offer one that I could find, but those lead acids will need to be replaced in a couple of years if they move a car ten miles a day.
   At 3ProngPower, unlike many of our competitors in the electric vehicle industry, we choose to only advertise products that are actually available today, we do not take deposits on a product that then takes months or years to deliver.
   I suspect that competitors who accept deposits to convert Priuses to plug-ins using batteries that are not available are probably not all that numerous.
   Your main competitor, Hymotion, uses the A123 battery. There appears to be a two month waiting list according to their website. Not too different from the wait for a Prius when demand was exceeding supply.
   Our current lead acid battery pack costs only $900 to replace.  Lithium batteries have a shelf life of at most 4 to 5 years and at the current price of lithium batteries it is actually less expensive to change out a lead acid pack a few time than to use lithium batteries.
   Well why didn't you say so? Not too bad if that includes labor. A customer can expect to spend about $450 a year on battery replacement costs. You might consider posting that information (along with battery life) on your website (unless it is already there and I just couldn't find it).
   I've been using a set of A123 batteries since June 2005 to power my bike. They perform like the day I bought them. I used to burn through a set of lead acids annually. A123 estimates a ten year useful life. I'm sure I'll get several more years out of them.
   Lead acids may very well be less expensive, but if so, not by much considering how many cycles you can get from the A123 chemistry. When it comes to performance, lead acids don't fare too well against the A123 batteries, which have a very flat voltage discharge curve, weigh far less, and are not appreciably impacted by cold weather.
   We will soon be announcing our own lithium battery product, and we offer to upgrade any of our lead acid customers to the lithium system for only the difference in cost. This allows the consumer to drive a plug-in car today and to know they have the option to upgrade to a better battery technology once that battery technology is available and affordable.
   The battery management system, connectors, harness, container and just about everything else used with those lead acid batteries will have to change along with the new batteries. In other words, you are offering to tear out most of the old "system" to put in a new one. You can't just swap out the batteries.
   Most of our customers do not find the added weight reduces their mileage once the battery is depleted, this is due to the enhanced regenerative braking capability the vehicle has with the larger battery pack.
   Hymotion does not attempt to use the extra batteries to store regenerative braking. To do so would have added a lot of expense to the system.
   "The L5 PCM must be recharged from an electrical outlet or extension cord equipped with GFCI. The L5 PCM does not receive any regenerative charge during driving"
   You are saying that, either you added that cost to your system or you found a way to do it that did not add appreciable cost.
   My prediction is that if the Oasis battery concept works out, we will see wholesale conversion of old cars into electric ones by aftermarket shops all over America. Conversions of the Prius to plug-ins will also begin in earnest. It's all about the battery.
   http://www.fireflyenergy.com/index.php?option=com_content ...
    
   
   In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

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9. 

   amazingdrx Posted 11:24 pm
   19 Jan 2009

   Exactly"...if the Oasis battery concept works out, we will see wholesale conversion of old cars into electric ones by aftermarket shops"
   And looking at the classic car and truck aftermarket, one could also envision lightweight carbon fenders, hoods, doors, and so forth becoming available as well.  These suppliers have made it possible to replace deteriorating body parts with new metal parts and even a few parts with lightweight carbon fiber ones, especially from performance aftermarket companies.
   This aftermarket could expand rapidly, given the fact that the performance of the vehicle increases, in terms of mileage per hp and acceleration, regardless of where the weight is shaved.
   It's easier and cheaper to make lighter body parts than lighter batteries, so with a reasonably long-lived battery like the Oasis design, lightening the rest of the vehicle will make the electric motor, battery, and backup power system of a plugin hybrid smaller and lighter.
   Even classic muscle cars could cruise on plugin battery power from very small battery packs and electric motors with overall weight reduction of the vehicle body and frame.  The thundering gas guzzler power plant could ride along, only to be fired up ocasionally.  These machines are mainly collector's items anyway.  Making them daily drivers compromises the design of the ICE.
   Go plugin hybrid with body lightening and you can have that 800 hp solid lifter, nitrous oxide breathing (libido substitute?) motor, without major rebuilding every few months.  Drag racers rebuild after each race.  
   Remember "Two Lane Blacktop"?   The fiberglass fenders and hood of the '55 chevy were part of the winning edge the boys enjoyed.
   
   http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

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10. 

    Bob Wallace Posted 12:25 am
    20 Jan 2009

    dw -"it is actually less expensive to change out a lead acid pack a few time"
    Would you please expand on that a bit?
    I'm off the grid, use a bunch of lead acid "golf carts" to carry me between sun rays.  The rule that I've been taught is to not mix new batteries with old, but to replace all at once.

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11. 

    biodiversivist Posted 3:07 am
    20 Jan 2009

    Whatever you do, don't bet your first bornon any prediction I make. One problem I see with aftermarket shops, DrX, are bureaucrats tripping everything up with excessive regulations. Innovation can be crushed by bureaucracy. Attempts by government to eliminate risk can eliminate entrepreneurs, which are all about risk.
    Bob,
    I think he was talking about switching out the whole pack of batteries. But you make a good point. How they managed to integrate a series string of 20 lead acids with a series string of dozens of NiMH batteries is a mystery to me. Keeping the two packs separate would seem the prudent design, as the Prius keeps its 12 volt starter battery separate from the regen pack and Hymotion appears to do between its Lithiums and the NiMH.
    
    In the end, it all comes down to biodiversity. Poison Darts--Protecting the biodiversity of our world

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12. 

    amazingdrx Posted 3:33 am
    20 Jan 2009

    Maybe retail bio-dNot wholesale conversion.  Hehey, I get carried away too.  Even a slight jump in do-it-yourself and small scale conversion might shame industry and government enough to get on the ball.
    As far as government officially legalizing car conversion, that's a real long shot.  On the other hand if you have a clean title and leave the metal part of the car intact (even a few square inches should be ok) with the id numbers, I bet the cops would let you get by with it if the car looked a bit like the original, used the same lights, running gear, windshield, and so forth.
    As long as you didn't get too much local publicity.  But starting a conversion business?  Probably not something that could get insurance.
    Could dealers go into the conversion business someday?  Maybe with industry cooperation.  
    That leaves cooperative clubs of like minded do-it-yourselfers, about the best we can hope for.
    
    http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin

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