Now what?

Advances in climate science took a nosedive in NASA satellite crash 7

By now you’ve probably heard about NASA’s carbon-measuring satellite, the one that went kerplunk into the ocean near Antarctica in a disastrous launch attempt Tuesday morning. I was feeling bummed that my “gee, this is going to be really cool and useful” pre-launch story is now very much irrelevant. Then I realized NASA’s team of scientists and engineers, many of whom spent eight years on this mission, lost a whole lot more. And then I realized the biggest loss—in new scientific understanding—affects us all: rich, poor, young, old, threatened wildlife ... the children.

Scientists hoped the Orbiting Carbon Observatory would lead to great advances in understanding the earth’s carbon sinks, the repositories of carbon dioxide no one has yet accounted for. ClimateWire has more on the scientific potential lost in the crash:

The $278 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory was designed to monitor how CO2 enters and exits the Earth’s atmosphere—hoping to yield a picture of a rhythm that is much like taking a breath. Forests and oceans absorb the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, while burning fossil fuels and decaying plant and animal life send more back ...

But while scientists have a basic understanding of the carbon cycle, they can’t account for all the CO2 humans produce, said Scott Denning, a professor at Colorado State University who worked on the NASA project’s science team. “The basic idea is that between the oceans and the land, about half of the fossil-fuel carbon dioxide is being taken up and not going into the air,” he said. “We need to understand that better to predict what’s going to happen in the future.”

The crash yesterday morning of NASA’s carbon observatory is going to make getting those answers more difficult, scientists said.

And a good metaphor on the value of collecting measurements from the atmosphere:

Using only measurements of CO2 levels taken from the Earth’s surface is like trying to map New York City by standing in the middle of Manhattan, said Paul Wennberg, a professor at the California Institute of Technology who operates a series of ground-based measuring stations. “You get an idea there are streets and buildings, but it’s very hard to imagine what the broader image looks like,” he said. “What [satellites] do is provide that context.”

It’s too early to say what’s next, NASA officials said yesterday.

“OCO was an important mission to measure critical elements of the carbon cycle,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth science programs. “Over the next several days, weeks and months we are going to carefully evaluate how to move forward and advance the science.”

That will include examining instruments already in orbit to see which can be modified to collect more information about CO2 in the atmosphere. The failure also brings heightened interest to Japan’s CO2-measuring satellite, Ibuki, launched in January. It will provide different but “complimentary” information to what the NASA satellite would have collected, program manager John Brunschwyler said.

NASA is currently without an administrator, and its funding situation will determine whether it rebuilds the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, says ClimateWire:

... ultimately, the agency’s decision to rebuild or replace the observatory likely hinges on whether it can use money from the recent economic stimulus bill, which included $400 million for climate research at NASA, or whether Congress would be willing to include money for the project in upcoming spending legislation.

If you’re into this sort of thing, MSNBC.com has a good background piece on the choices President Obama must make about the future direction of NASA.

Jonathan Hiskes is a Grist staff writer. He reports, tweets, eats, asks questions, self-promotes, looks out windows, and wonders if it could be like this.

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  1. christophersj Posted 12:10 pm
    25 Feb 2009

    ShitCan the hardware be reproduced from the same original plans?   You would think so.
    This kind of stuff has to be a priority.
  2. Delay And Deny's avatar

    Delay And Deny Posted 12:15 pm
    25 Feb 2009

    Targeting Satellite Now...My guess is the IPCC probably hired a guy like Grishenko from Goldeneye
    http://www.bondmovies.com/henchmen/grishenko.jpg  
    to shoot the thing down with secret laser stuff hidden in a the crater somewhere in the Alps.
    This gives Hansen, Gore and the Stealulus crowd another few years to hoodwink the public before the truth comes out.   Without due diligence on actually data, the GWAs (Global Warming Alarmists) are inwincible !
  3. amazingdrx's avatar

    amazingdrx Posted 1:16 am
    26 Feb 2009

    Lots of carbon sinks to studyRight here on the ground.  I'm thinking that would turn up the missing carbon.  And maybe provide a template for increasing carbon sink activity to pre-industrial chemical ag levels.
    Maybe some spy statelites could be reconfigured to measure GHG in the atmosphere?  Or maybe it could be done from the international space station?  It is likely that readjustment of the equipment might be needed as science integrates new data on postive feedback and chemical ag GHG sources to the climate modeling.
    The ill-conceived solar power beaming experiment could be put aside for awhile, or it might even be possible to measure GHG with this beam?  Microwave laser frequencies are based on CO2 molecular oscillations.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29387782/

    http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog John Schneider, Northern Wisconsin
  4. sindark's avatar

    sindark Posted 1:19 am
    26 Feb 2009

    Refocus NASAWhile NASA apparently didn't see fit to put the OCO on a reliable booster, they have been spending money testing engines for a pointless moon mission.
    Earth's moon is probably the most boring place in the solar system, and yet we have sent manned expeditions there seven times (six of which touched down on the surface, one of which was Apollo 13).
    Forget about moon jaunts and focus on what NASA does best: studying both distant worlds and out own planet, from the vantage point of space.

    a sibilant intake of breath
  5. Ted Clayton Posted 1:38 am
    26 Feb 2009

    Chris,Your point about the possibility of a back-up or replacement unit for the OCO is basically 'the other shoe' I've been waiting to hear drop.
    Also, due to budget-constraints, OCO was a good deal less than it might have been ... and might yet be, in the replacement version.  (Lots of spare cash kicking around now, looking for good things to do..)
    The fact that we are hearing nothing about a fall-back or follow-up plan of any kind, is itself at least a tad pregnant.
  6. Ted Clayton Posted 1:46 am
    26 Feb 2009

    jabailo,Please review the Grist Posting Rules, with special attention to:
    #1.)  Don't be a jerk. Nobody likes jerks.
    and,
    #6.)  Seriously, don't be a jerk.
  7. Head Coach Posted 6:35 am
    27 Feb 2009

    Who Benefits?A serious piece of quantifying global warming gets destroyed at its launch point.
    Unlike jabailo I feel that the coal power plants online and the hundreds proposed to go online this year around the world are wearing a new banner with a long history;
     "Mission Accomplished!"

    My best,



    Mark Walker

    Head Coach

    Marketing Whisperers, Ltd.

    http://www.marketingwhisperers.com

    (425) 327-5548

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