It’s amazing enough that the normally staid International Energy Agency recently said we’ve run out of time. Now Business Wire reports:
According to a new survey by BDO Seidman, LLP, one of the nation’s leading accounting and consulting organizations, 48 percent of chief financial officers (CFOs) at U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies agree that the world has reached its peak petroleum (liquid hydrocarbon) production rate or will reach it within the next few years, while another 52 percent disagree with that statement.
I think the headline is wrong, though:
Energy CFOs Are Split on World’s Peak Petroleum Production Rate, According to BDO Seidman, LLP.
Chief Financial Officers at exploration and production companies are arguably the most cautious “show me the money” people in the entire energy business. The news is not that they are split. The news is that half think we are peaking or soon will.
The point is, it is not just the “peakists” who think we have a big, big problem. And it’s not just the CFOs. The CEO of Royal Dutch/Shell emailed his employees, “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.” The CEO of French oil company Total S.A., said that production of even 100 million barrels a day by 2030 will be “difficult.” The CEO of ConocoPhillips said, “I don’t think we are going to see the supply going over 100 million barrels a day.”
Remember, the problem is far graver than it appears for one simple reason: Replacing oil in the transportation sector requires strong government action two decades before a peak because of the time needed to replace vehicles and fuel infrastructure. That was the conclusion of a major study funded by the Bush Department of Energy in 2005 on “Peaking of World Oil Production” [PDF]. The report notes:
The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
Ouch! The same point is true about global warming. If we want global carbon dioxide emissions to peak and start declining, the planet must start aggressive mitigation policies two decades in advance—which means now, for the 450 ppm-ers or the 350-ppmers.
The time to act is now.
This post was created for ClimateProgress.org, a project of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
‘Copenhagen Diagnosis’ offers a grim update to the IPCC’s climate science
Comments
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Pompey Road Posted 1:49 am
15 Jan 2009
The early 80's is when we discovered all the easy coal had been mined in East Ky. and W. Virginia with the exception of the small seams near the tops of the mountains we could exploit if we could only just blow the tops of the mountains off and shove the overburden into the valleys. It was the only way really we could compete with the cheap to mine western coal.
So peak oil is especially disturbing to hear down here in the appalachian coal fields. It only means the increased demand for coal combined with the fact all our easy coal is gone except around the mountain peaks will contibute to our peak peak problem.
We are losing peaks at an accelerated rate plus valleys and fresh water streams. Peak oil and peak peaks will guarantee the demise of thousands more before we can get Mountain Top Removal stopped.
The eons of time and nature was good to us down here. It was not until we become civilized that destroying our habitat become fathomable or fashionable.
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archigeek Posted 3:09 am
15 Jan 2009
The mellotron is your friend.
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GlobalWarmingInc Posted 4:40 am
15 Jan 2009
The more we drill now (using current clean technology) the quicker we'll be able to use it -meaning less reliance on terrorist oil.
But hey, as long as the rich people can't see the drilling rigs from their posh beach houses, then we're better off right?
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GreyFlcn Posted 9:40 am
15 Jan 2009
http://greyfalcon.net/oilprice.png
Middle East countries will be able to sell their oil at nearly the same prices, almost no matter what we do.
http://greyfalcon.net/dilbert2.png
The only way to significantly devalue their oil, is to move away from oil.
-David Ahlport
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