I was fully prepared to hate this op-ed from T. Boone Pickens and Ted Turner, mainly because Pickens is kind of shady and I’m generally sick of rich old establishment white guys telling us how to transform our energy systems. However! It turned out to be pretty good—far better than what you normally see on the Wall Street Journal editorial page.
The one sticking point for greens will be the heavy focus on natural gas, a vexed topic that’s more and more central to climate policy conversations.
The politics of natural gas are extremely interesting. In a nutshell, the interests of coal utilities and natural gas executives are at odds. To the extent carbon is penalized and coal is phased out, natural gas wins.
Coal has dominated the development of ACES so far, securing tons of free permits and handouts, while natural gas has stood by, quiescent. Ex-senator Tim Wirth addressed a group of natural gas utility execs recently and told them to get off their asses and start lobbying for a stronger climate bill. They seem to be moving in that direction, trying to rally behind some concerted Senate lobbying.
Here, the American Gas Association’s Roger Cooper puts a good face on natgas’s presence in ACES:
I have no idea how it’s going behind the scenes, but at the very least natural gas is a lot more sexy these days. It was the subject of a high-profile Senate hearing recently. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has done everything but carry T. Boone around on a perfumed litter to spread his natural gas evangelism. (Says Reid, “I’ve been converted. I now belong to the Pickens church.” Yeah, I puked in my mouth a little too.)
Randy Udall has argued passionately on behalf of natural gas as a bridge climate solution. So has Robert Kennedy Jr. So has John Podesta.
The question for enviros: Is the enemy of our enemy our friend? Is it worthwhile to ally with the natgas industry to reduce the influence of coal and strengthen the climate bill?
To answer these questions, we need to look at the substantive roles being envisioned for natural gas. Pickens and Turner propose two.
Power plants
First:
Adopting a “cash-for-clunkers” program in the utility sector can save money and reduce emissions right away by retiring the oldest, least efficient and most polluting power plants in exchange for modern gas-powered plants. New coal plants should be required to combine natural gas with the coal they burn, resulting in cleaner emissions, and every power plant should meet strict carbon-emissions standards.
It’s good that the oldest coal plants—built in the 1950s and ‘60s, grandfathered under the Clean Air Act, and responsible for a substantial chunk of total U.S. emissions—are back in the news. There was a great Washington Post piece on them (and how some might escape unscathed under ACES) this week. They also play a prominent role in Carl Pope’s account of the Clean Air Act’s original sin.
It’s true, as Sean Casten and Joe Romm have pointed out, that rapidly shifting the nation’s power dispatch from coal to gas would be the fastest way to reduce emissions in the short-term. Emissions from the average gas plant have plunged lately as new combined-cycle plants, which emit less than half the CO2 of the average coal plant, come online. (Meanwhile, average coal plant emissions are rising.)
As an added benefit, natural gas plants can be built more quickly than coal or nuke plants, smaller, and closer to load, enabling them to capture and use their waste heat. Natural gas can also be co-fired—with coal to immediately reduce emissions from coal plants; with biomass, which (with sequestration) could produce carbon-neutral or even negative power; and perhaps most intriguingly, with solar thermal.
Natural gas really does seem like an important tool when it comes to short- and mid-term reductions in the electricity sector. Efficiency—getting more power from less fuel—should be the top and overwhelming priority, but natgas can certainly help at the margins.
Vehicles
The second proposal:
In the transportation sector, renewable energy and natural gas can also be deployed immediately. ... We can begin transitioning the nation’s fleet of 6.5 million 18-wheelers that run regular routes. It would take just 20 refueling stations along a single highway to get trucks from one coast to the other. Centrally fueled urban business and government fleets also can quickly move to natural gas.
This I’m not so sure about. It’s already a considerable walk-down from Pickens’ original plan; he has now embraced electricity for light-duty vehicles. But still it ignores that natural gas is vastly more energy efficient burned to make electricity than it is burned in internal combustion engines. And even if compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles produce lower emissions per unit of fuel than gasoline vehicles, there’s still an enormous energy penalty in gathering and compressing the fuel, which in the end yields a roughly equivalent environmental situation as gasoline. (Of course, Pickens doesn’t care about the environmental situation—he only cares where the fuel comes from—but the rest of us should care.)
I get that we’re not going to see electric buses or 16-wheelers any time soon, but all told, it seems ill-advised to build large new long-term infrastructure in the name of “transitioning.” Better a strategy focused on moving freight to rail while researching advanced biofuels for heavy-duty vehicles; for personal vehicles, there are better batteries and transit-oriented development.
Of course, if U.S. policymakers took both the Turner/Pickens proposals to heart, it would represent a massive increase in demand for natural gas. Is there enough to satisfy that demand?
Supply
It’s been conventional wisdom in progressive energy circles for a while now that domestic supplies of natural gas have plateaued and that the bulk of future supplies will come from overseas. But some new developments cast that into question. Craig A. Severance notes that just a couple months ago ...
... the nonprofit Potential Gas Committee industry group, assisted by the Colorado School of Mines, released the results of its 2008 assessment, indicating a total increase of U.S. natural gas resources of 39% since its last assessment, for 2006. The report notes the new natural gas resource estimate is the “highest resource evaluation in the Committee’s 44-year history”—indicating the U.S.has far more resources of natural gas than previously considered.
That’s due to new discoveries and new technology that makes it easier to get at unconventional sources like shale. Others say the cost-effectiveness of getting at shale is speculative at best, and no one yet knows how much it will cost. We should have a much better idea of what’s available in two or three years.
Of course if domestic supplies don’t pan out, we can always revert to foreign sources in the short-term. Severance points out that “liquid natural gas (LNG) imports are being sold at incredibly low prices. With a glut of LNG terminal and tanker capacity, foreign producers now have the LNG loaded and ready to sell, and often are merely trying to cover their marginal costs of operation.”
Ultimately, the signs seem to point to plentiful supply and, at least in the short-term, fairly low prices.
Still, what about the environmental consequences of embracing a fossil fuel?
Oh, right, the environment
Many long-time enviros want nothing to do with natural gas. There’s worry that natural gas drilling endangers water supplies, in part thanks to the so-called Halliburton Loophole in the Safe Water Drinking Act, which exempts a technique called hydraulic fracturing from the law’s provisions. It’s the subject of lawsuits in Pennsylvania and protests in Texas right now. New York City has demanded a ban on natural gas drilling near upstate reservoirs, for fear of drinking water contamination. Legislation has been introduced to bring fracturing under federal rules.
As Udall himself admits:
The gas industry has not been gentle on Western landscapes—but climate change could be worse. So pick your poison. To displace coal with gas, we’d need to complete 30,000 to 40,000 new wells a year for decades to come.
Vastly expanded natural gas drilling would no doubt create more ecological sacrifice zones populated by the poor and powerless. After sitting through sessions on mountaintop removal and New Orleans at a recent conference, I’ve lost my taste for that kind of “poison.”
And of course, insofar as the domestic motherload doesn’t pan out, we’ll end up importing vast quantities of LNG, with all the vexing environmental issues that raises.
Non-conclusion
This is a lot of words to read for no conclusion, I know, but I’m torn. In a perfect world, we’d be committed to reducing the use of all fossil fuels as rapidly as possible, through efficiency and rapid buildout of renewables. Alternatively, one can envision a U.S. policy whereby natural gas is extracted carefully and used judiciously to carry the U.S. on a slightly slower transition to clean energy.
But as we have surely learned by now, politics is not a precise instrument. Sleep with dogs, wake with fleas. Sometimes you’ve got the bull and sometimes the bull’s got you. Grab a tiger by the tail ... etc. If enviros ally with the natural gas industry, it’s hard to know how much they’d ultimately be able to shape the result. Then again, it’s not like there are lots of other powerful allies in the fight against coal just waiting in the wings, and it sure would be nice to get a better climate bill in the Senate ...
‘Tis vexing. What do y’all think?
Comments
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Earl Killian Posted 6:51 am
21 Aug 2009
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ellen beswick Posted 8:58 am
21 Aug 2009
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Biodiversivist Posted 10:19 am
21 Aug 2009
Also, there is the issue of capturing methane from waste, at feedlots and municipal waste treantment facilities, which is a renewable form of natural gas.And finally, you can use natural gas to appease the energy independence patriots and xenophobes. combined, Canadian, Mexican, and domestic reserves are quite large.
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Sean Casten Posted 12:11 pm
21 Aug 2009
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dhmeiser Posted 10:24 am
21 Aug 2009
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tboggia Posted 10:50 am
21 Aug 2009
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sunflower Posted 11:01 am
21 Aug 2009
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skitters Posted 12:30 pm
21 Aug 2009
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gullyfourmyle Posted 1:01 pm
21 Aug 2009
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MIKE CHIROPOLOS Posted 1:45 pm
21 Aug 2009
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Josh Joswick Posted 2:44 pm
21 Aug 2009
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MaryS Posted 2:57 pm
21 Aug 2009
Here are some points to consider:
--GAS INDUSTRY EXEMPTIONS: The gas industry has gotten exemptions not just to the Safe Drinking Water Act, but to a long list of federal environmental laws, including the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act.
--REAL CARBON FOOTPRINT: Methane, the primary component of natural gas, does produce less carbon dioxide than coal or oil when burned. But that is only part of the picture; things start to look a lot less rosy when you examine the natural gas extraction process.
Methane itself is a greenhouse gas about 20 times as potent as carbon dioxide. Methane is accidentally and intentionally leaked and vented into the atmosphere during natural gas production and transportation.
Extracting gas from unconventional sources (like coal bed methane and shale) is an extremely energy-intensive operation. The days of conventional gas sources are fading fast and the U.S. is becoming increasingly reliant on unconventional sources. Hydraulic fracturing in shale requires hundreds of diesel-burning tanker-truck trips for just ONE gas well, because the vast quantities of water needed to fracture the shale (millions of gallons per well) must be transported to the well site. Then, when contaminated water is returned from the gas well, more tankers must haul it away for disposal or treatment. (How to safely dispose of or treat this toxic wastewater is a huge problem, with no satisfactory answer at the moment.) It is estimated that in order to get appreciable amounts of gas from the Marcellus Shale, something on the order of 50,000 to 100,000 gas wells would be required.In some areas, large number of trees will be cut to make way for gas well pads, access roads, and pipelines.
Before we can know what the real carbon footprint of natural gas is, the effects of methane leakage and venting, energy use in the extraction process, and tree loss would have to be carefully studied and quantified by some unbiased source (and the gas industry is not an unbiased source).
--HOW MUCH GAS DO WE REALLY HAVE: The estimates of how much gas is in the ground are just that: estimates. Any estimates that come from the gas industry (which is where most of them come from) are likely to be overly optimistic, since the gas industry has an obvious interest in making its business outlook seem bright. On top of that, estimates are usually phrased as "X number of years of gas at current levels of usage". However, if we start converting power plants to natural gas and cars to natural gas and home heating to natural gas, we will also start using more gas per year, thereby reducing that number, "X." Russia and the Middle East have a lot more gas than the U.S. If we make a large-scale conversion to natural gas, guess where we'll end up having to turn, sooner or later, in order to get more natural gas to power the U.S.
--NOT THE BEST USE OF LIMITED FINANCIAL & NATURAL RESOURCES: Modern gas extraction methods are costly. Large horizontal wells are typically needed, each well costs millions of dollars, and we will need thousands upon thousands of these wells. The infrastructure for large-scale conversion to natural gas will also be costly. Many, many resources would be endangered or consumed (e.g. water, steel for rigs and trucks, diesel fuel, etc.). And it will take decades to get large amounts of gas from shale. On top of that, shale gas drilling is likely to increase health costs. (A recent study showed that the amount of smog produced by drilling in the Ft. Worth area is roughly equivalent to that produced by all of the car and truck traffic in that region. An accompanying increase in asthma cases has already been observed.)
--LOCAL HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: The local environmental and public health problems caused by gas drilling are serious indeed. The main problem is that a high gas well density is required to extract appreciable amounts of gas from shale. A recent pro-drilling study in my own county was based upon the assumption that 3 to 6 wells would be drilled per square mile--this in a 700-square-mile county with 200,000 people. Even if the impact of one well were small, the cumulative impact of all of those wells would be devastating. And the local impact of one well is not small.
I could go on for pages about the local effects, but I'll sum it all up by saying that the effects are horrible—serious water pollution, serious air pollution, 24/7 noise, huge increases in truck traffic, chemical spills, gas well fires, loss of green space, etc. Some of these negative effects--like health problems due to contaminated water--may take years to make themselves fully known. Because shales in the U.S. underlie some heavily populated regions, a lot of people are likely to feel these negative effects in their daily lives if we go all out on gas production. These wells are not all going to be in remote locations: they will be in suburban and even urban neighborhoods. (There are over 1000 gas wells in Ft. Worth, TX.)
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Natural gas extraction is poorly regulated. Natural gas contributes to global warming, is expensive to extract, causes terrible local environmental problems, and is in finite supply. Rather than using natural gas to "transition" to a new energy future, wouldn't it make a lot more sense to use a serious energy conservation program as the "bridge" to that future and commit our limited natural resources and investment capital to the serious and rapid development of renewable energy sources that can power the U.S. safely and indefinitely?
For more information, see:
http://www.un-naturalgas.org/
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Biodiversivist Posted 8:29 pm
21 Aug 2009
In any case, natural gas as a replacement for general transportation use is a dumb idea. It may have potential to displace diesel in heavy vehicles if someone can ferret out the global warming impact of the lower soot emissions. Learn something new every day.http://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/transport/publications/lifecycle.htmlhttp://www.environment.gov.au/settlements/transport/publications/lightvehicles.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/science/earth/16degrees.html"...Soot accounts for 18 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, second only to carbon-dioxide (CO2), which accounts for 40 percent of the emissions blamed for global warming,..."
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gullyfourmyle Posted 10:41 am
22 Aug 2009
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kenshin Posted 9:29 pm
22 Aug 2009
natural gas doesn't need our help to fight climate change as they stand. coal plants are being replaced by natural gas, leading to coal's total energy production last year going down, while natural gas power production has gone up.i'm not a fan of natural gas, and besides, we'll be fighting to make sure that geo-thermal projects can get a hold of those drills. oil and gas basically own all the drills that geothermal would also use to do their projects. if they don't own them, they may own the patents to them instead. can u imagine a geothermal company going to the gas companies and asking if they can lease their drills for a project--yeah, just for a few months, we're building a geothermal plant that will basically help to put your industry out of business...i'm sure the answer will be, oh sorry, we don't have any available for the near forseeable future.if we do use gas as an ally, the government needs to gain access to those drills, and keep them on hand solely for the purpose of geothermal plants and nothing else.it is nice to see oil and coal all in-fighting each other, and not as united together. coal screams out that oil is foreign dependance, oil screams out against clean coal...now gas? no, i don't believe it, i think this is a back-up plan that the oil industry has to get what they really want thru a trap door, as opposed to the backdoor.
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kenshin Posted 9:30 pm
22 Aug 2009
natural gas doesn't need our help to fight climate change as they stand. coal plants are being replaced by natural gas, leading to coal's total energy production last year going down, while natural gas power production has gone up.i'm not a fan of natural gas, and besides, we'll be fighting to make sure that geo-thermal projects can get a hold of those drills. oil and gas basically own all the drills that geothermal would also use to do their projects. if they don't own them, they may own the patents to them instead. can u imagine a geothermal company going to the gas companies and asking if they can lease their drills for a project--yeah, just for a few months, we're building a geothermal plant that will basically help to put your industry out of business...i'm sure the answer will be, oh sorry, we don't have any available for the near forseeable future.if we do use gas as an ally, the government needs to gain access to those drills, and keep them on hand solely for the purpose of geothermal plants and nothing else.it is nice to see oil and coal all in-fighting each other, and not as united together. coal screams out that oil is foreign dependance, oil screams out against clean coal...now gas? no, i don't believe it, i think this is a back-up plan that the oil industry has to get what they really want thru a trap door, as opposed to the backdoor.
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