Change we should avoid

Global warming set to intensify August heat, Climate Central study finds 8

From the Big Apple to the Big Coconut?Climate Central’s analysis found that New York City will see a three-fold increase in the number of 90-degree-plus days in August by midcentury.Photo illustration by Tom Twigg / Grist

By some measures, the Chicago and New York of tomorrow are likely to be hotter than the Atlanta of today—at least in August.

Climate Central’s analysis of projected midcentury August temperatures for 21 major American cities, under a fairly conservative warming scenario, suggests some startling changes ahead.  Today, the only cities on the list where more than half of the days in an average August exceed 95° F are Phoenix and Dallas; by the 2050s, Houston, Sacramento, Tampa Bay, and Orlando could join them.  Today, seven cities break 90° F on at least half of the days of a typical August; by the 2050s, they could be joined by Atlanta, Denver, Indianapolis, Miami, and Philadelphia.  By midcentury, a dozen cities could average more than one day over 100° F per August, where today only three share that dubious distinction. (See below for a list of detailed results for all cities analyzed.)

Climate Central logoThese patterns match a broad finding in climate research that what seems to be a small amount of general global warming could have a large effect on weather extremes—including extreme heat events, which are forecast to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting (see U.S. Climate Change Science Program report).

Extreme weather and climate events can cause significant damages, and heat waves are considered public health emergencies. Hot temperatures contribute to increased emergency-room visits and hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease, and can cause heat stroke and other life-threatening conditions.

Events such as the Chicago heat wave of 1995 and the 2003 European heat wave [PDF], which killed an estimated 40,000 people, have proven especially deadly to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and persons with respiratory illnesses.

Climate Central used established scientific methods (more detail on the next page) to take results averaged from 12 major global climate models and apply them to 21 American cities.  The resulting projections should be taken not as concrete predictions but rather as best guesses within a range of uncertainty.  However, all 12 models used are unanimous in projecting more hot days by the middle of the century than we have today.  For its projections, Climate Central used a moderate-high scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions.  The scenario and resulting projections of risk currently appear to be conservative, since global emissions have exceeded the scenario in recent years.

Find out more and watch city-specific videos at Climate Central.

 

Average number of days each August over …

90°F95°F100°F
City1980’s & 1990’sProjection: 2050’s1980’s & 1990’sProjection: 2050’s1980’s & 1990’sProjection: 2050’s
Atlanta 11 25 2 14 0 3
Boston 3 8 0 3 0 0
Chicago 4 14 1 6 0 2
Cleveland 2 10 0 3 0 0
Dallas 26 29 19 26 10 19
Denver 7 22 1 12 0 3
Detroit 2 14 0 5 0 1
Houston 23 29 6 20 1 4
Indianapolis 5 18 1 8 0 2
Los Angeles 6 14 2 6 1 2
Miami 17 30 0 11 0 0
Minneapolis 2 8 0 3 0 1
New York 4 12 1 4 0 1
Orlando 19 29 1 18 0 1
Philadelphia 6 20 1 9 0 2
Phoenix 31 31 30 31 27 30
Sacramento 20 26 12 20 7 12
San Francisco 0 1 0 0 0 0
Seattle 1 5 0 1 0 0
Tampa Bay 22 30 2 22 0 2
Washington, DC 10 19 3 10 0 3

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  1. Bud Dingler's avatar

    Bud Dingler Posted 3:08 pm
    19 Aug 2009

    here i sit with a ruined crop this summer after a historically cold July and a chilly May and June. we can't predict the weather two weeks from now and someone claims we're all going to burn up by 2050. I'm going to take a nap...yawn~a significant ongoing event we understand little about scientifically is the lack of sunspots and overall sun activity we have experienced since 2007. with a El Nino event already certain in the Pacific the hypothesis of how much the suns activity affects our global climate will be played out in the next 9 months. some solar experts predict that we will stay in this unusual minimum period for several decades. IF and I say IF (unlike the rabid certainty of the AGW babble) sun activity turns out to "surprise" have an affect on climate many OF the dire predictions will turn out like the birthers and death panel wackos to be a bunch of noise. 
  2. Tom Twigg's avatar

    Tom Twigg Posted 3:58 pm
    19 Aug 2009

    Predicting the weather and predicting the climate are two VERY different things Bud, you ought to know that. One is highly volatile and the other can be trended and modeled over time. May and June in your area = weather; averaging years and decades of temperatures = climate. I am not a scientist but I can understand this much. People who, for whatever reason, want to deny climate change seem to prefer mixing them interchangeably as you do to back a position for which there is no scientific support.
  3. Matt Petryni's avatar

    Matt Petryni Posted 6:25 pm
    19 Aug 2009

    Yeah, part of the problem with these issues are that people need to think on a larger scale. It's not so much about global warming in your town or state, as it might be possible climate change plays out in a different way that just "warming" locally. But it's about how our actions might, in aggregate, have global implications that need to be considered. Ultimately, thinking about how the world operates outside yourself, your locality, your nation, and in fact on the scale of the entire globe is critical to the future economy and, in the views of some, human survival.
  4. mememine69 Posted 3:10 am
    20 Aug 2009

    I can’t do this anymore, telling our kids that we must save the planet for them. And these kids of mine and others of today aren’t stupid you know as one of mine actually read the IPCC reports going back to 1991. She is still laughing since the IPCC predicts everything from cooling to warming to drought to flood to…. . This CO2 theory has now defined environmentalism as a duty to save our planet from this slow moving and earth-destroying comet hit of Climate Change. And after 23 years of predictions we here in London Ontario had our first heat alert in 2 years and our first smog warning this year alone. My advice to you parents, teachers, politicians, journalists and consultants is that this theory of doom is not sustainable for another 23 years for watch for future generations to brand us all as being those “Witch Burners” of environ MENTAL ism. History will curse us all. Preserve, not rescue our planet.History will view you and all the other warm mongers traitors for leading our civilization to war against a non existent enemy of climate change, yes climate change, formerly known as just weather.
    1. Matt Petryni's avatar

      Matt Petryni Posted 8:49 am
      20 Aug 2009

      I don't mean to offend, but it seems that you may not understand the science of global warming very well. Climate change is complicated, and the assumption that "it's not getting warmer where I live, so it can't be getting warmer" fails to even remotely address the key points of the theory.Global warming actually has happened to some extent already, but the effects of longer-term climate change and alterations of the Earth's atmospheric composition are harder to predict. We do know that they have the potential to be quite destructive. Furthermore, how exactly the earth's climate functions is nowhere near as simple as "universal warming," so I would advise sitting down with a survey science textbook and reading about it, and at the very least introducing the understanding it offers into your critique of the theory. Then we wouldn't feel like we have to sit here through hours of rudimentary Earth Science online. (The nature of particular covalently bonded molecules have the effect of trapping infrared heat energy introduced by solar radiative forcing...)Environmentalism extends well beyond "global warming," as I'm sure you know, and deals with the health of our streams, rivers, forests, agricultural soils, and so on, such that it hopes to afford humanity an increasing quality of life. It's about recognizing the existing limits of our industrial technology, and using human ingenuity to develop innovations that move beyond them. It's basically a thesis of "we can always do better," rather than "we're doing just fine." In short, it's the debate between having high standards, a sense of personal responsibility, and having no standards or sense of personal responsibility at all.
      1. mememine69 Posted 2:32 am
        21 Aug 2009

        I'm just talking about the theory of global warming, not environmentalism in general and your personal definition of global warming is just too funny and so typical of you compulsive liars in this hysteria.Resulting cooling disproves predicted warming.The opposite of warming is cooling.You are expressing a self fulfilling prophecy that is the same as the neocon's WMD scam and history will curse all of you warm mongers.Preserve our planet, not save and rescue it from a mistake.Get ahead of the curve loser as new and emerging and up to date science says the end of the world is not going to be from catalytic converter gas and plant food. 
  5. Matt Petryni's avatar

    Matt Petryni Posted 7:46 am
    21 Aug 2009

    First off, your assertion that "resulting cooling disproves predicted warming" speaks more and more to your overwhelming ignorance, I'm afraid to say. It is totally possible for climate change resulting from changes to the atmosphere to create a destabilization toward cooling as well. Not globally - there is no prediction saying that the Earth's temperature will cool overall - but in specific areas currently kept warm by complex systems of climatic currents. But most everyone knows that at this point. You really need to either learn more about this issue, or you need to explain further what you mean to indicate you actually have some reasonable basis for these assertions.This is, of course, if you actually wish to be effective in debunking the "global warming hysteria." If you would rather just stroke your own ego and reinforce a superiority complex, keep doing like you're doing. That's a personal thing, and I'm fine with that.I don't mind that you disagree with me, or even that you feel the dominant science is wrong. I just think going out and mocking it without expressing some basis for your reasoning does little to advance your argument, let alone "disprove global warming." I am actually interested in such a critique: it would be great to learn that global warming is in fact a misguided theory. However, you remain either unwilling or unable to elaborate in a meaningful way. I think that would be incredibly valuable, especially if your rampant arrogance is in fact justified by a clear personal understanding.We'll see what happens. I will say that no one is predicting the "end of the world," and few are predicting the end of civilization. What we do know is that the future might become increasingly unpredictable if current trends continue. It's possible also it'd all work out just fine, and that would be great. But it would be better to know that and work to secure it than to simply hope.
    1. mememine69 Posted 9:05 pm
      29 Aug 2009

      Why do loyal believers in this CO2 theory have this instant reflex for misery? Why would you wish this suffering on my kids? This "IS" the end of the world that we are talking about here with the CO2 theory, as in climate "CRISIS". It’s not pollution in general. Ask yourself: If you remove this silly climate change CO2 theory out of the list of things to kill us soon, what do you have left? Life is good.-1: It's been 23 years of climate crisis predictions. -2: La Nina kicked it's a$$ and it's cooling! -3: It's cooling right in front of our eyes yet the fear mongering misery lovers of globull warming jump at the chance of doom with every corporate media hysteria story about Polar Bears and some ice melting somewhere. I'm sure every one of these doomers was tattle-tales at school too!How about you globull warmers challenge your real intent and make a promise with yourselves. Show us you really have the planet and my kids at heart. Show some commitment at least if you are going to call for the end of "life as we know it" as the good old IPCC says. So, here is what we deniers want you warmies to do:*If you truly believe in global warming, get a sign that says THE END IS NEAR and start marching. *If not, get up and dance and celebrate the end of the world's longest emergency; globull warming. Life is good, stop the fear. Preserve, not rescue our world.

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