Yvo de Boer of U.N. climate convention says 350 ppm is pipe dream 7

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   Jon Warnow Posted 3:49 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   Here's what 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben had to say on the subject: One of the bigger milestones in the 350 campaign came yesterday, when Yvo de Boer, chair of the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen, told a room full of NGO delegates: "I don't think there is a hope in hell we will get a 350 in Copenhagen. I think we'll get two degrees."Eighteen months ago, no one had even heard the number 350--scientists were still finishing the papers that showed it represented the critical red line for the planet. In that year and a half, thanks to the movement you've built around the globe, the powers that be have begun to pay attention. They don't want to, because 350 is hard--it means moving political and economic systems much more quickly than is comfortable. They're happier sticking to old science and old goals--like 2 degrees C. But it's not a position that's logically defensible any longer. We've raised the planet less than one degree and that's melted the Arctic--and you want to make two degrees your goal?In one sense de Boer is right--whatever agreement is signed in Copenhagen won't get us back to 350 immediately. It will take many years for the world's forests and oceans to absorb all the carbon we've already poured into the atmosphere. But the agreement at Copenhagen will be judged on how quickly it moves us in that direction. In the meantime, your work is already changing the political equation. Remember what Gandhi said: "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."  We've gotten to stage 3 inside of a year and a half!"
    

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      veritone Posted 5:16 pm
      17 Aug 2009

      Thanks for sharing that! McKibben is right and we must never give up.

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2. 

   Billhook Posted 5:56 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   With all due respect for Bill McK's steadfast endeavours, in the quote above he may be rather overstating his case, which of course is exactly the sort of opening that opponents will distort and exploit if they're given the chance.Thus I'd point out that De Boer's dismissive words "Not a hope in hell" smacks of  Ghandi's stage 2, "they ridicule you" not his stage 3, "they fight you".Moreover,  getting even this far for the 350 ppm peak hasn't taken just 18 months as Bill describes it - we at Global Commons Institute started pushing for 350 ppmv as the formally agreed peak in the COP in Geneva in '95, which is now 14 years ago.In one thing we have reached Ghandi's stage 4 - "then you win." After facing 20 years of dogged campaigning, the British & French govts have at last formally declared their commitment to the global climate policy framework of "Contraction & Convergence", shortly before the recent G8 summit. Which brings the 3 main EU powers into a concerted focus, in common with the Africa group of nations, and with India and the other sub-continent nations, along with Brazil and various others. With regard to China, we have only India's word for it that they share the Indian outlook that, "C&C is the starting point of our position."There is something that has long puzzled me about the strategic policy-making of 350.org - what is the recommended means of international distribution of (declining) emission rights ? Dr Hansen's idea (which perhaps has been misreported ?) of the US holding the world to its preferences by threat of a trade-war (for >41 years !) is hard to take seriously - it is surely of more effect in deterring Annexe 2 (developing) nations from any constructive input at Copenhagen ?So, rather than just demanding that Copenhagen somehow manifests a viable formula to ensure a 350 peak without passing 2 C, perhaps it is time for 350.org to declare just what framework of burden-sharing the organization is campaigning for ?regards,Billhook

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   guade00 Posted 7:00 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   Seriously, the majority of Americans are still in the "ignore you" phase.Best wishes with either 350 ppm or 2 degrees. People, we are in the midst of a massive climatic shift and species die-off. Please, by all means, let's reduce our use of fossil fuels, cut emissions, and achieve some sort of peace with our environment. But, be sure, it's happening.

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4. 

   Rip Van Winkle Posted 9:34 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   Yes you will, because we won't tolerate anything else.

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5. 

   Javaman Posted 6:25 am
   18 Aug 2009

   LOL 2 degrees if we are lucky!! at the rate we are going we are looking at 4 degree square in the eyes. That's a game ender.To quote Achilles: Humans are such wretched creatures.

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6. 

   Billhook Posted 7:36 am
   18 Aug 2009

   Javaman - maybe you've yet to comprehend the dynamics of the many accellerating interactive feedback loops.For a good account of one area's interactions, see here :http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/17/positive-methane-feedbacks-permafrost-tundra-methane-hydrates/If we heat the planet by more than the 2 C threshold, then we face the prospect of the diverse feedbacks taking off, and raising GW temperatures way beyond 4 C - To put this in context, you've maybe experienced just how quickly a sound feedback can massively self-amplify to extreme volume ?Thus we stay below the 2 C threshold, or drive the whole bus over a cliff.Regards,Billhook  

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