Solar is getting cheap 14

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1. 

   neosapiens Posted 5:22 pm
   13 Aug 2009

   Thanks for including the link to the report with the maps showing that CA and the southwestern states are poised for solar to achieve grid-parity.  That means that solar will compete favorably when power companies need to add new capacity or replace old plants, and that businesses looking for reliable electricity will have a better business case for installing solar.  We can hope that SoCal and other coal users will soak up the oversupply in solar panels and help the solar industry resume the spectacular growth curve it was on before the economic crisis knocked it for a loop. 

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2. 

   BlackbirdHighway Posted 5:20 am
   14 Aug 2009

   Solar panel pricing is now under $4 a watt. Still more expesive than coal, but far cheaper than nuclear. If you add in the environmental cost of coal, then solar and wind are the clear winners for cheap, clean power.

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3. 

   Delay And Deny Posted 11:28 am
   15 Aug 2009

   Solar and wind are best used for producing hydrogen.This let's them provide baseload and levels out the variability of wind and sun. 

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4. 

   amazingdrx Posted 9:55 pm
   16 Aug 2009

   Here's a good way to understand what the 2 dollar per watt solar cell price point mentioned in the link means.  Each watt of cell capacity produces around 3kwh of power per year.  At the retail price for electricity of 11 cents per kwh, that would mean a 6 year payback for the solar cells.  33 cents per year times 6 years is aproximately 2 bucks.After 6 years your electricity would be free.A coal or natural gas plant costs close to 2 bucks per watt, but it never pays for itself in savings like solar does.  Why?  Because the cost of the fuel is always there.  Not only that, the cost of the fuel always rises with inevitable shortage and price manipulation.  And the cost of GHG climate change and pollution always increases too.So you get what you pay for, ever cheaper electricty costs as wind and solar pay off their intial cost, or ever increasing prices for energy and the inflation it produces at the very base of the economy.  Devaluing the currency and value of other elements in the economy like human labor, invention, and initiative. 

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5. 

   lasmog Posted 11:47 am
   17 Aug 2009

   Re: "After 6 years your electricity would be free."I'm glad to hear someone mention this when discussing the cost of various renewable energy sources.  This always seems to be left out of the debate when comapring the costs of solar to coal or nuclear power.  I can't understand why this point isn't emphasized more.  Maybe Americans simply cannot conceive of a cost or benefit that is more than a year away. 

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6. 

   danallen Posted 12:56 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   Well, not so fast. The solar cells in the panels we put on our roof two years ago have a performance deterioration rate such that they will be essentially useless in 20 years. The output is already going down. (The sun's rays are doing more to the silicon crystal structure than just pumping photons through.) The right way to do the economic analysis has to take that into account. Plus, the coal or natural gas plant in any comparison will have a 30 or 40 year lifetime, and while it will still have a fuel cost in the out years, the initial capital cost will be almost insignificant in an analysis.

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7. 

   danallen Posted 12:56 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   Well, not so fast. The solar cells in the panels we put on our roof two years ago have a performance deterioration rate such that they will be essentially useless in 20 years. The output is already going down. (The sun's rays are doing more to the silicon crystal structure than just pumping photons through.) The right way to do the economic analysis has to take that into account. Plus, the coal or natural gas plant in any comparison will have a 30 or 40 year lifetime, and while it will still have a fuel cost in the out years, the initial capital cost will be almost insignificant in an analysis.

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8. 

   lasmog Posted 1:37 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   When analysing the cost of coal power I assume that we would have to include environmental damage, climate change, respiratory disease, mercury poisoning, etc.  It seems that externalities just aren't considered in economic analysis when they are embedded in the status quo. 

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9. 

   danallen Posted 2:10 pm
   17 Aug 2009

   No. By definition of "externality" those are not factors in an economic analysis. One might wish them to be, but they just aren't. Everyting the environmental political movement is an has been doing is one way or another trying to convert "externalities" to "internalities" for decisionmakers -- whether a homeowner considering a solar rooftop or a power company choosing the technology for a new generating plant.

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10. 

    danallen Posted 2:10 pm
    17 Aug 2009

    No. By definition of "externality" those are not factors in an economic analysis. One might wish them to be, but they just aren't. Everyting the environmental political movement is an has been doing is one way or another trying to convert "externalities" to "internalities" for decisionmakers -- whether a homeowner considering a solar rooftop or a power company choosing the technology for a new generating plant.

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11. 

    danallen Posted 2:11 pm
    17 Aug 2009

    No. By definition of "externality" those are not factors in an economic analysis. One might wish them to be, but they just aren't. Everyting the environmental political movement is an has been doing is one way or another trying to convert "externalities" to "internalities" for decisionmakers -- whether a homeowner considering a solar rooftop or a power company choosing the technology for a new generating plant.

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12. 

    lasmog Posted 2:32 pm
    17 Aug 2009

    An externality is something that is not included in a market price. However, this does not mean that the market price is reflective of reality.  If you wish to conduct a meaningful economic analysis of the cost of coal you cannot or should not continue to ignore the very real costs of coal powered pollution.  

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13. 

    Adam Browning Posted 5:51 pm
    17 Aug 2009

    Dan-Can you please tell me the make and model of the panels on your roof?  Initial degredation rates generally level off around 85%, and modules can be reliably expected to operate much, much longer than 20 years.  There are many installations around the country still generating after 30+ years--in fact, the original solar cells, first invented in Bell Labs in 1954, are still operational. Consult google for more on degredation.Most manufacturers offer 20 to 25 year warranties. So if yours are failing to the point of being worthless, you have a warranty remedy. 

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    1. 

       danallen Posted 3:30 pm
       21 Aug 2009

       I am sorry that I commented mistakenly under the impression that my solar panels will be no good in 20 years. I mixed-up what the installer told us was the warranty period, understanding instead that it was the useful life. I see now from the warranty paperwork that came with the Kyocera KC130GT that the limit on their leveling off is guaratneed to be above 80% at 25 years.

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