The World Disasters Report 2009 focuses on disaster risk reduction under the title Early Warning Early Action.
The report, released by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, emphasizes the need to invest in a culture of prevention. Early action is portrayed as an investment for the future, and far more effective in the long run being perpetually caught up in a reactive cycle of disaster response.
Early warning early action also promotes harnessing existing knowledge and technologies and translating this into life-saving measures for populations at risk. The report also focuses on the importance of working in partnership with governments and local communities, to effectively shift emphasis towards more preventative action.
“With global GDP forecast to decline for the first time since the Second World War,” said IFRC Secretary-General Bekele Geleta, “as well as the ever-growing challenge of climate change, we must increase preventive activities as the most effective way of saving lives and preserving development gains.”
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Brad Arnold Posted 10:07 pm
16 Jun 2009
By the way, I've also noticed a tragic inability of mathematical models to predict non-linear or exponencial change. For instance, sea level rise exponencially increases the odds of inland flooding due to storm surge. Another example is that because future natural methane emissions (from melting methane hydrate) can't currently be accurately estimated, it is simply not included in climate modelling.
Frankly, I feel sorry for any poor fool who depends upon current climate models to plan for the future. Instead, an insurance model of risk should be adopted, where money is spent to plan for and adapt to the worst case senario. On thing ought to be perfectly clear: non-linear events (black swan events) are low probability/high consequence, and will inevitably eventually occur. Tomorrow is almost always like today, until it isn't. Do you really need a model to tell you that?
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marshall Posted 6:56 am
17 Jun 2009
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